Pound Sterling recovers further on steady monetary policy by the BoE.
The BoE was expected to keep interest rates steady due to a weakening economy and falling inflation.
Three BoE policymakers supported raising interest rates further.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has extended its rally above 1.2700 against the US Dollar after the Bank of England (BoE) maintained interest rates steady at 5.25% in the finale of 2023. This was the third straight time when the BoE maintained the status quo through a 6-3 majority as anticipated. BoE policymakers: Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, and Katherine Mann endorsed raising interest rates one more time by 25 basis points (bps).
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey kept doors open for further policy-tightening and remained stuck to the ‘higher for longer interest rates’ narrative. Bailey warned that measures of inflation persistence are higher in the UK economy than in other major advanced economies.
Meanwhile, the shrinking UK economy has put UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s promise of ramping growth in jeopardy as the economy is struggling to absorb the consequences of higher interest rates. This could dampen the outlook of GBP/USD ahead.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Pound Sterling rallies as BoE worries about sticky inflation
Pound Sterling climbs to near 1.2700 as the BoE has kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% as anticipated by the market participants.
The BoE held interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive time but warned that further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.
Out of the nine-member MPC-led committee, policymakers: Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel, and Katherine Mann supported raising interest rates by quarter-to-a-percent to 5.50%.
Easing price pressures, falling pay growth, and a shrinking economy seem supportive factors for maintaining a status quo by the BoE.
In the three months to October, earnings excluding bonuses grew at a slower pace of 7.3% against expectations of 7.4% and the former reading of 7.8%. Wage growth is slowing but it is still high.
UK’s headline inflation has sharply declined to 4.6% in October.
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.3% in October, more than the 0.1% forecasted by markets. This is the first contraction since July. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed exceptionally wet weather to the decline in GDP.
A significant fall in Manufacturing and Industrial Production has raised concerns of a potential recession in the UK economy.
With a sharp decline in the UK’s economic activity, BoE policymakers are expected to follow the footprints of the Fed and will discuss cutting interest rates in 2024.
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said that a sharp impact of higher interest rates on the economy was inevitable.
The market mood favors risk-perceived assets as Jerome Powell remained surprisingly dovish while guiding further monetary policy action on Wednesday.
The Fed lowered their core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) projections for 2024 and 2025 and hinted at three rate cuts in 2024.
A “soft landing” scenario from the Fed is highly anticipated, which indicates that the economy has managed to tame inflation without any economic collapse and higher jobless rates.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling aims stabilization above 1.2700
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Pound Sterling jumps above 1.2700 as the BoE has kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.25% as expected. The GBP/USD pair trades near a nine-day high of around 1.2650 after a sharp recovery from the psychological support of 1.2500.
On a broader note, more strength in the Pound Sterling would allow the GBP/USD pair to re-test November’s high around 1.2733, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2557 is expected to continue to provide support to the Pound Sterling bulls.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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