September ‘very much on the table’: What economists say about Bank of Canada rate cuts

Two more cuts expected this year

Published Jul 24, 2024 • 3 minute read

Economist think Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem will cut rates again in September. Photo by Sean Kilpatrick /The Canadian Press

As the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate for the second time in this cycle Wednesday, economists remained confident more reductions are on the horizon. The central bank’s decision to trim its key policy rate to 4.5 per cent was broadly anticipated by economists and the market. Economists noted the dovish tone in governor Tiff Macklem’s statement, and now expect at least two more cuts by the end of 2024. Here’s what they had to say about the announcement:

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September cut ‘looks likely’: Capital Economics

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist with Capital Economics, said the Bank of Canada’s comments suggested it would keep cutting rates if inflation continues to ease.

“Our forecast for inflation this quarter is the same as the bank’s, leaving us to judge that another interest rate cut in September is the most likely outcome,” Brown wrote in a note.

The economist added that the announcement came as “no surprise” as the market had put the chances of a rate cut at 90 per cent.

BoC intends to keep trimming: CIBC

While the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut was also of little surprise to Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist of CIBC Capital Markets, the central bank’s statement has him adjusting projections for September and the rest of 2024.

Shenfeld had previously predicted a hold in September before another cut in December, but now expects a September cut.

“This is clearly now a dovish central bank that is looking to ease up on rates and get the economy moving again, so a further 50 (basis points) of easing this year, and our projection for a 2.75 per cent rate at the end of 2025, seem fully consistent with that stance,” he wrote in a note.

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‘Easy decision’: Desjardins

Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, said today’s decision was “easy” and “little surprise” but the central bank will need to do more in short order to avoid further damage to the economy.

“As we’ve been saying for some time, the Bank of Canada needs to materially lower rates ahead of the mortgage renewal wall which hits in early 2025 to have any chance of avoiding a recession,” he said in a note.

“There’s a strong sense that policymakers feel an urgency to continue the rate cutting cycle in September. The dovish language in the releases paints a picture of officials who are growing more worried about the likelihood of recession.”

Mendes is also shifting his September prediction from a hold to another cut, with the next hold coming in December.

September cut ‘very much on the table’: BMO

Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said if the next consumer price index comes in at a 0.2 per cent month-over-month climb or lower, then another rate cut in September is “very much on the table.”

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“The tone of today’s many remarks almost seems to suggest that the bank now needs to be convinced not to keep trimming rates,” he said in a note.

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“We continue to look for two more rate cuts before the end of 2024, taking the overnight rate down to four per cent, with the precise timing over the next three meetings driven by the incoming data.”

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