Steenhuisen’s DA poised for power shift in SA amid ANC’s decline

In the wake of South Africa’s latest election, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen is navigating a pivotal moment as early results suggest a potential loss of majority for the ruling African National Congress (ANC). With the ANC’s long-standing reign marred by economic stagnation, high unemployment, and crumbling infrastructure, Steenhuisen’s DA, which boasts a better track record in the Western Cape, could play a crucial role in shaping the country’s future. Despite challenges in expanding its appeal to Black voters and a contentious campaign, Steenhuisen remains resolute in preventing an alliance between the ANC and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), aiming to stave off what he dubs a “doomsday coalition.”

Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.

By Joe Bavier

South Africa’s election this week could present a golden opportunity for the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and its leader John Steenhuisen if the ruling African National Congress loses its majority this week, as early election results suggest.

The party of Nelson Mandela, in power for the last 30 years, has little to boast about. The economy has barely grown in the last decade. The jobless rate is among the world’s highest. Infrastructure is crumbling.

The DA, the country’s second biggest party, can point to an objectively better track record in Western Cape, its stronghold and the sole province not controlled by the ANC.

Read more: Ansara on Election’24 early results: ANC slide, MK boom – coalitions, Stateproofing in SA’s future

With results in from 13.9% of polling stations, the pro-business Democratic Alliance’s (DA) vote in Wednesday’s election stood at 25.8%, behind the ANC’s share at 42.6%, with the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 8.5%, data from the electoral commission showed.

Despite campaign missteps and the DA’s struggles to broaden its support, Steenhuisen could find himself in a pivotal position if the final result were to resemble the early picture and the ANC would be forced to make a deal with one or more party to continue governing.

And though Steenhuisen, 48, has vowed that the ANC must go, he has not excluded a post-election deal if it keeps the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) out of government. The EFF promises to nationalise industries and seize white-owned land. “I’m not ruling out anything depending on what the election results are going forward,” he said in an interview with Reuters in March.

NO VOTES FOR WHITE PRIVILEGE

The pro-business DA has long struggled to shake off its image as a party of South Africa’s privileged white minority and appeal to Black voters, a cause that has not been helped by a succession of defections by Black DA lawmakers. Steenhuisen, 48, who is white, became leader in 2019 after his Black predecessor Mmusi Maimane resigned, accusing some within the party of undermining his efforts to court Black voters.

Steenhuisen, who comes from South Africa’s eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, has been immersed in the DA his entire adult life, starting as an activist before his election as a DA city councillor in Durban at the age of just 22.

He told Reuters the DA was the party of all South Africans.

“I don’t want people to vote for the DA if they think that we’re here to protect and entrench white privilege,” he said. “Our policies are the best mechanism to deliver people from living a life of abject poverty amidst failing services.” A March opinion survey by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group suggests many South Africans do have faith in the DA’s ability to govern.

DA-run Western Cape and its capital Cape Town were considered by far the best governed province and major city. And 37% of respondents had a favourable view of the party.

Steenhuisen’s own favourability, however, lags well behind at 19%.

“Part of the reason the DA is not doing better is because there is a question mark around the leadership,” said Melanie Verwoerd, an independent South African analyst. “It’s both in tone and then also in content.”

Under Steenhuisen, the DA has doubled down on economically liberal policies that could struggle to gain traction among poor Black South Africans.

Read more: RW Johnson: MK, PA and other big Election’24 changes to SA’s body politic

And the decidedly negative campaign he is leading has been dogged by a series of own goals.

A recent DA advert, for example, depicted a South African flag burning. The image meant to symbolise the risks should the ANC go into coalition with left-wing parties, but it provoked an immediate backlash. Opponents pounced. President Cyril Ramaphosa called the ad
“treasonous”. National broadcaster SABC refused to air it.

So when it should have been focusing on rallying last-minute support, the DA found itself playing defence.

Still, it is on course to retain its position among South Africa’s major parties, with Steenhuisen enduring as a political force set on fending off an ANC tie-up with the EFF or MK in what he’s dubbed “a doomsday coalition”.

“We will do whatever we can to prevent that,” he said.