The United States fears unstable coalition rule in SA…

The United States is concerned about the stability of any coalition government in South Africa, warns Dr. Edward Mienie, a former diplomat and current professor at the University of North Georgia. He emphasizes the need for a stable South African government to counter Chinese and Russian influence in Africa. Dr. Mienie suggests a coalition between the ANC, DA, and IFP but notes significant ideological differences. He also supports maintaining AGOA with South Africa.

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Highlights from the interview

Foreign powers, particularly the United States, are closely monitoring South Africa’s coalition talks following recent elections. Dr. Edward Mienie, a former diplomat to South Africa from the University of North Georgia, highlights US interest in South Africa’s stability to counterbalance Chinese and Russian influence in Africa. Mienie suggests a coalition involving the ANC, DA, and IFP would offer stability, despite ideological differences. He warns against including parties like the EFF and MK due to potential instability. Mienie acknowledges the surprising performance of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, attributing its success to populist sentiment, particularly among Zulus in KwaZulu-Natal. Regarding South Africa’s state, Mienie views it as fragile but believes stability can be achieved through effective coalition-building and negotiation. He stresses the importance of South Africa to US interests in Africa, emphasizing the need for continued engagement and diplomatic relations. Mienie concludes that losing South Africa as an ally would diminish US influence in sub-Saharan Africa, urging sustained bilateral cooperation. Chris Steyn concludes the discussion, acknowledging Mienie’s insights on South Africa’s election outcome and its implications for US-Africa relations.

Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Chris Steyn (00:00.947)

Foreign powers are keenly awaiting the outcome of coalition talks in South Africa. We speak to a former diplomat to both South African governments, Dr. Edward Mienie, who is with the University of North Georgia in the United States. Welcome, Dr. Mienie.

Eddie Mienie (00:18.152)

Thank you very much, Chris. I appreciate the opportunity to chat to you and your audience.

Chris Steyn (00:24.051)

Well, thank you for taking a break from your holiday in Greece to give us your take on the results of our election. How has the election results been received in the United States?

Eddie Mienie (00:39.4)

Yes, you know, the United States is really interested in a stable South Africa. And clearly the ANC has been on a downward curve in terms of support since really since ’94 – there was just one little peak where they sort of maximised their support here in I think, I believe it was in the early 2000s – but it’s shown a decreasing trend of support amongst the general voter population.

And of course, the question is, you know, who would replace the ANC and should they be replaced? You know, the United States is losing its influence in Africa, which is not a good development. That vacuum caused by the US’ withdrawal, forced withdrawal, by host governments, as for instance, Niger…That vacuum has now been filled by Russia and by an extension, Wagner, which is really an extension of their foreign policy activities on the African continent.

I believe that the US would not like to lose its influence in South Africa. And in order for them to remain engaged through AGOA, they are going to look for a reliable partner in South Africa. And so together with this, it requires a stable South African government.

And of course, now we are looking at the ANC having achieved just over 40% support. They are now forced to either form a government, a coalition government, or a worst case scenario, a government of national unity with so many different parties being involved in the governing of South Africa. So either way we look at it, South Africa politically is less stable.

Eddie Mienie (03:01.032)

I would say from the US perspective, any coalition government is not an ideal situation. Just think of Italy, think of Israel. More often than not, they have coalition governments that don’t really hold. And they force new general elections as a result of the instability brought about by those coalition governments.

So now, so what does the ANC do? They have to look for a partner and a viable partner that can bring stability. So we’ll see. I know there’s horse trading going on at the moment between the ANC and other parties. And I believe they have two weeks after the general election to come up with a coalition government, coalition partner or a government of national unity. So, you know, we’ll see where that takes us. And I believe we’ll have another conversation once those announcements are made.

Chris Steyn (04:03.475)

Mm hmm.

Chris Steyn (04:14.323)

Yes, as you say, sorry to interrupt you, continue.

Eddie Mienie (04:28.2)

So, yeah. No, I’m just saying that the US government would like to see a stable South Africa and obviously for their own national security interests try and be South Africa serve as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in Africa as well as Russian expansionism in Africa.

South Africa is a very important country on the African continent. And I believe the US government wants a successful South Africa.

Chris Steyn (04:54.004)

So while the US may not see any coalition government as ideal, which coalition do you think would be preferable or would best serve South Africa’s domestic and international interests?

Eddie Mienie (05:08.488)

Yes, I really believe the ANC, the DA, and perhaps the IFP forming a coalition government would be, in my opinion, the most stable.

Having said that, you know, ideologically, the ANC and the DA are opposed on many fronts. But I believe that that could be worked through. The concern there would be each of their support base respectively to show that they are delivering for their support base. So it’s going to take some nifty negotiations and diplomacy on the side of the ANC and the DA, IFP to a lesser extent. And it’s possible. But I believe that that is the most stable option for South Africa.

I also believe that the ANC and the DA on the one hand do not want to see former cadres such as EFF and MK share in the governing of South Africa because that could be very contentious. The former ANC supporters now supporting MK and EFF would be very demanding towards the ANC should they form part of the coalition.

So it’s in the interests of the ANC and the DA to keep the EFF and MK out of governing South Africa.

Chris Steyn (06:57.235)

Talking about that, what do you make of the astounding performance of former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party in the election, even beating the Economic Freedom Fighters into fourth place?

Eddie Mienie (07:12.84)

Yes, remarkable performance, I must say. I think of all the parties, they did the best. I’m surprised at the support that Jacob Zuma’s party and Jacob Zuma attained. The problem there is, you know, he’s getting on in age. I believe he’s 82 there about years old. And who replaces him? How long will he last? And so it’s a populist movement in that sense.

I’ve always believed many, many decades ago that the Zulus really should be governing themselves in KwaZulu-Natal. And so I’m not surprised by the outcome. I am surprised by the percentage that they had attained. But I’m not surprised that Jacob Zuma was supported by the Zulus and KwaZulu-Natal, if I can put it that way. Yeah.

Chris Steyn (08:22.931)

Dr. Mienie, when I spoke to you last year, I think we discussed where South Africa fell at that point on the scale towards a failed State. How would you classify South Africa right now?

Eddie Mienie (08:42.088)

Chris, I would say it’s fragile. I know there are so many people watching your programme that say it’s failed. That’s from their perspective. I don’t believe that at all. It is fragile and I still maintain my position that if we can stabilise South Africa, which I believe we South Africans could do with the right coalition partners, and as I said, with the right negotiations, that makes sense for both parties, the ANC and the DA and the IFP, that we could turn that ship around, stabilise South Africa.

You know, the huge unemployment rate, the huge poverty rate is of big concern. And so, in order to attract foreign direct investment, in order to keep our trading partners engaged with South Africa and improve their investments and trade with South Africa, we’ve got to show that South Africa is a stable destination for them to do business in and to invest their money in. So I would say fragile.

Chris Steyn (10:02.131)

What would the implications be for the United States in Africa if it lost its influence in South Africa?

Eddie Mienie (10:11.688)

As I said, South Africa is a very important country on the continent. The US would lose South Africa as a partner and then thereby lose its influence in sub-Saharan Africa, in my opinion. It cannot afford to lose South Africa as a trading partner, as an ally.

And I know there’s resentment in South Africa towards the US. Again, this needs to be addressed. And we do this through diplomacy, strengthening our bilateral relations with each other.

And absolutely, the US must remain engaged with South Africa. I know there’s been talk on Capitol Hill about relooking the AGOA status with South Africa. That’s not going to go anywhere. The US must maintain AGOA with South Africa, and I believe it will. And they cannot afford to lose South Africa to the influence of, as I said, Russia or China. It’s not in the national security interests of the United States at all.

Chris Steyn (11:41.587)

Thank you. That was Dr. Edward Mienie, a former diplomat to both the South African governments and now with the University of North Georgia in the United States, speaking to BizNews about the outcome of the election in South Africa. Thank you, Dr. Mienie.

Eddie Mienie (12:16.936)

Thank you very much, Chris. I appreciate the time.

Chris Steyn (12:19.699)

and I’m Chris Steyn.