Economists at Commerzbank analyze USD outlook ahead of the release of the US September retail sales and industrial production data.
USD to strengthen if the signs of a soft landing become stronger
As far as the data calendar is concerned, retail sales and industrial production data are due to be published in the US, which should at least attract some attention on the market. If the signs of a soft landing become stronger, this would also be positive for the USD, because it would mean that the Fed would probably not cut its key interest rate any time soon.
Of course, the data could disappoint today. But this would hardly be enough to dissuade economic optimists. This would therefore hardly weigh on the USD.
And as long as there is no easing of the Middle East conflict, the USD is likely to remain in demand anyway.
See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, tepid gains after surging since spring
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