Three Cybersecurity Predictions For 2024

Managing Director of Cyber Security Consulting at Verizon.

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Cybersecurity evolves according to advances in technology. Twenty years ago, the cloud as we know it didn’t exist. Forensic investigation following a breach or incident was done manually onsite. But now, we live in a world where even physical equipment and machinery may be connected to a network via Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. This level of connectivity has delivered many benefits, but it also opened up new potential points of entry for threat actors. Naturally, cybersecurity has had to adapt to—or even better, stay ahead of—the shifting technology landscape.

What’s Next In Cybersecurity?

Because change is the only constant, it’s vital to anticipate emerging cybersecurity challenges to ensure your networks stay protected in the new year and beyond. Here are my predictions for 2024.

Compliance will be a major factor in cybersecurity.

A major compliance update comes from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As of December 2023, the SEC is requiring businesses to disclose material cybersecurity incidents within four business days of the materiality determination. This could be an important safeguard for all publicly traded companies that have seen their fair share of widespread breaches in recent years, although how the new guidance is observed may vary. The SEC is interested in “material cybersecurity incidents,” but how that’s interpreted remains to be seen.

PCI Data Security Standard (DSS) 4.0, the latest version of the global standard for protecting payment card account data, goes into effect in March 2024. Not only is it necessary for merchant processing payment cards, but it sets forth a baseline of technical and operational requirements that will help serve as an effective cybersecurity blueprint for e-commerce. Compliance with the PCI DSS 4.0 standard may be a months-long process, but every step on the compliance journey should help improve data protection, and e-commerce will be the better for it.

AI won’t play a role in social engineering and vishing.

My next prediction is sort of a non-prediction: AI will not factor significantly in social engineering and vishing in 2024, despite what some may have you believe. It’s true that generative AI has the potential to automate and improve the effectiveness of social engineering, but the reality is that AI-powered social engineering either isn’t currently taking place or is rarely occurring. There were no instances of AI involvement in social engineering attacks in this year’s Data Breach and Investigations Report (DBIR). I believe that’s unlikely to change in 2024.

Here’s why: Social engineering is already very effective in its current form. Pretexting, a social engineering technique that uses a plausible premise or identity to trick a target into divulging sensitive information, nearly doubled from last year’s DBIR to this year’s. Social engineering is also proving more and more lucrative for hackers. This year’s DBIR also shared that over the last couple of years, the median dollar amount stolen in business email compromise (BEC) attacks—the enterprise version of pretexting—increased to $50,000. Hackers tend to gravitate toward the path of least resistance. Why invest in a more sophisticated method if the simple technique is working just fine?

That’s not to say AI can’t become a real threat to social engineering. Generative AI’s sophisticated natural language processing capabilities can be used to effectively mimic the speech patterns of real people. With this technology, pretexting becomes very realistic. AI could also help scale attacks across the globe by enabling credible social engineering in many different languages. AI may even be used to replicate a real person’s voice to make vishing (voice phishing) that much more compelling.

But, I believe that threat actors will only turn to AI when it’s necessary. As of now, the tried-and-true methods continue to work. It’s important to keep an eye on the evolution of more advanced attacks, but in 2024, you should continue prioritizing the defense of simple social engineering attacks that threat actors are already using to great effect.

Conflicts around the world will affect the course of cybersecurity.

Just as geopolitical forces impact economies worldwide, they can impact cybersecurity. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, for example, may influence the trajectory of cybersecurity, as Israel is a hub of cybersecurity innovation. With Israel’s attention turned toward Hamas, the cybersecurity supply chain could be hindered in 2024.

Although much of the world’s attention has turned to the Middle East, we would be remiss to overlook the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which also has a significant bearing on global cybersecurity. Whenever this conflict is resolved, enterprises, research facilities and other organizations could once again see an uptick in attacks from nation-state threat actors from this region. Nation-state actors also tend to have more resources, allowing them the opportunity to employ more sophisticated attacks. Although it’s impossible to forecast the outcomes of these conflicts, how they unfold will have consequences for cybersecurity worldwide in 2024 and beyond.

A Plan For You

Staying current with cybersecurity requires both attention to detail and big-picture thinking. Regulatory compliance can serve as a practical blueprint for cybersecurity, and understanding the macro forces at work can help you anticipate and evolve. Although compliance and geopolitical forces should certainly inform your cybersecurity strategy, your ultimate signpost should be your organizational objectives. Heed the global climate and adhere to federal compliance, but create your own cybersecurity plan.

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