Truck data shows a 'flat' economy, economist says

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A pickup in heavy vehicle traffic points to some strength in the economy, but a slowdown in light vehicle traffic strikes a more recessionary tone.

The ANZ Truckometer Light Traffic Index fell 0.9 percent in May over April, while the Heavy Traffic Index rose 1.8 percent, recovering from April’s weakness.

Heavy traffic, which included trucks and buses, tended to provide good steer on production GDP, while light traffic typically provided a six-month lead on momentum in the economy.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the traffic data suggested a relatively flat second quarter for economic activity.

“The data has been extremely volatile ever since Covid arrived on our shores, but overall, the recent downward trend is consistent with consumer spending cooling as RBNZ (Reserve Bank) rate hikes continue to bite,” Zollner said.

“While the economy is cooling, the heavy traffic data at least is hardly looking recessionary.

“We are forecasting the ‘real’ recession to be a feature of the second half of this year.”

The economy dipped into recession at the start of the year, as Stats NZ reported GDP fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in the three months ended March, after falling a revised 0.7 percent in the previous quarter.