The defeat of Congress in three state polls yesterday holds grave ramifications for its 2024 Lok Sabha campaign. There may be no direct correlation between a party’s performance in assembly polls and the Lok Sabha polls that occur shortly after, but these elections do matter for both the winner BJP and the Congress so far as strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is concerned. For the Congress, the poll results leave difficult lessons.
Barely five months before the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress defeat in the state polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will force it to rethink its strategy. That should be par for the course for any party but not when so little time is left.
Telangana Results: Full list of winners
The fizzled firepower
The shock defeat of the Congress in Chhattisgarh where it was positioned to win; its utter slide in Madhya Pradesh where it was seen as a strong challenger; and its failure to hold on to Rajasthan will require a radical reconfiguration of its poll strategy for the next Lok Sabha elections.
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At the centre of such an exercise would be a reevaluation of its two weapons of choice.
After the Congress won Karnataka elections in May this year, it seemed the party had tested a new weapon and it had worked. It experimented by promising a raft of freebies targeted at different segments of the voter population along with “guarantees”. Most likely the strategy was based on the calculation that a fiscally conservative Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won’t be able to compete on that turf.
If the Congress thought so, it wasn’t totally off the mark. Though the BJP governments at the Centre as well as in states have offered freebies, welfare schemes and cash handouts, the party never made that the mainstay of its electoral politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had even criticised freebies as “revris”.
Victory of the Congress in Karnataka convinced it that it had found a poll weapon with surefire success. The Congress doubled down on its freebies strategy, hoping that it will repeat the Karnataka success in the three North Indian states too. Ashok Gehlot, the incumbent Rajasthan chief minister, showered the public with a range of freebies just before elections. He even promised freebies to a new voter segment of gig workers who have been in news for adverse working conditions in their industry.
Madhya Pradesh Elections Winner List
The BJP seemed to be wary of the new Congress weapon. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had earlier used the same weapon to great effect in Delhi and Punjab. The BJP had to assure voters in Rajasthan that it would not discontinue any welfare scheme or freebies being given by the Gehlot government when speculation was rife that the BJP would do away with Gehlot’s schemes if it won in the upcoming polls.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP had to back its old war horse and CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who had been the state CM for four terms and was perceived to carry a huge anti-incumbency factor, mainly due to his popular freebie schemes, especially the Ladli Behna, his government’s flagship scheme for women. Initially, a financial aid of Rs 1,000 was being provided to women under this scheme and it was increased to Rs 1,250 in August.
The Congress’ brash confidence in its electoral strategy of freebies must have been shattered after yesterday’s results. The BJP has proved that it can easily counter the Congress’ freebie strategy, especially in Chhattisgarh where the incumbent CM Bhupesh Baghel was seen to be in a strong position solely due to his freebie schemes.
In Madhya Pradesh, PM Modi asked the MP voters in his rallies to rely on “Modi ki guarantee” — a phrase he coined to counter the Congress’s “six guarantees” campaign that it took to MP polls after it helped the party win Karnataka elections in may this year.
Chhattisgarh: Full list of winners
The poll results in the three states may not have conclusively proven that the freebies did not work at all for the Congress, but they do indicate that the Congress can’t rely on freebies as one of its main planks in the next Lok Sabha elections. A smart branding of the freebie strategy as “six guarantees” did point at the Congress’ intention to deploy this weapon from its Karnataka campaign in the coming elections too. But now it may have to reevaluate its use and impact. The recent poll campaigns suggest it’s easy for the BJP to counter this weapon.
Another big weapon of choice that failed to make much impact was the caste census. The Congress and many opposition parties had aggressively promoted the idea. The Congress went a step further and even raised the slogan of “jitni abadi, utna haq” (rights proportional to population of a community). The BJP was initially flummoxed by this move, since a big chunk of its votes comes from the OBC community which the caste census was supposed to benefit according to the opposition parties. Later, it dithered and even seemed to be warming up to the idea, possibly sensing the huge dent it could make in its voter base.
The three states, each of which has quite a significant population of OBC communities, did not seem to have rewarded the Congress for promising the caste census or higher reservation for the OBCs. Bhupesh Baghel, who is considered the biggest OBC leader of the party, was unable to retain his government in Chhattisgarh.
Rajasthan Elections: Who won and who lost
Will they work in the Lok Sabha elections?
After yesterday’s discouraging poll results, the Congress has two options: press on with its freebies and OBC planks or mute them and try to find planks more relevant to voters. Either way is not easy. The BJP has proved that it can counter the Congress’ freebies strategy and also blunt its overtures to the OBC voters. The BJP will be even more confident and acquainted with the ways to do it successfully in the Lok Sabha elections.
If the Congress decides to look for new grand ideas that can be its main planks in the Lok Sabha elections, it has very little time to do that. New ideas need to be analysed and tested over time. The party has no such space left now. It’s likely the Congress has some other cards up its sleeve for the Lok Sabha elections. Otherwise, it must hope what did not work for it in these assembly polls will work in the Lok Sabha polls.
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