The US Census Bureau will release the September Retail Sales report on Tuesday, October 17 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming data.
Retail Sales in the US are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month vs. 0.6% in August. Meanwhile, sales ex-autos are expected at 0.2% MoM vs. the prior release of 0.6%.
Deutsche Bank
We expect retail sales to decline (-0.1%) after two strong months.
NBF
We expect total sales to have risen 0.4%. Ex-auto outlays could have been a tad weaker, advancing 0.3%.
RBC Economics
September US retail sales likely ticked up 0.1% from the prior month. Unit auto sales recovered (+2%) in September after two consecutive declines in prior months. Gas prices were still high, but growing at a slower pace; sales at gas stations likely remained flat during that month.
SocGen
We expect a mild 0.3% MoM increase for retail sales for the aggregate but note that higher gasoline prices are partially responsible for the gain. Ex-auto and ex-gasoline, we expect just a 0.2% increase. The increase implies a drop in volumes for September after an earlier decline of 0.2% in real terms for August.
Citi
We expect a modest 0.1% MoM increase in total retail sales in September, which follows a couple of months of strong increases. Autos should boost retail sales this month after unit auto sales increased in September following two months of declines. Gasoline sales could also provide a modest boost since gas prices increased in seasonally adjusted terms. We expect control group sales to remain unchanged this month, with non-store sales increasing but most other control group categories declining. Despite September retail sales being on the softer side, goods consumption growth has been much stronger in the third quarter overall compared to the second and has boosted Q3 GDP. If real goods consumption continues to be strong in the coming months, that would add to the evidence that the rotation from goods to services has come to an end.
Wells Fargo
We forecast retail sales growth in September was 0.3%, and our call is for retail sales excluding autos to grow 0.2%. Adjusting for inflation, we look for real retail sales to grow 0.2% in September.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : FXStreet – https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-retail-sales-preview-forecasts-from-six-major-banks-tepid-gains-after-surging-since-spring-202310170641
