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- USD/CAD kicks off the new week on a positive note, albeit lacks follow-through buying.
- Sliding Oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends support amid a modest USD strength.
- The Fed rate-hike uncertainty acts as a headwind for the USD and caps gains for the pair.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers on the first day of a new week and snaps a two-day losing streak to its lowest level since September 2022, albeit lacks bullish conviction. Spot prices trim a part of the modest intraday gains and trade just above the 1.3200 mark, up less than 0.10% for the day heading into the European session.
Worries that a global economic downturn, particularly in China, will dent fuel demand prompt fresh selling around Crude Oil prices, which, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook, turns out to be another factor lending support to the USD/CAD pair. It is worth recalling that the US central bank last week decided to leave interest rates unchanged, though signalled that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as 50 bps by the end of this year. This, along with a generally softer risk tone, benefits the safe-haven buck.
That said, the incoming US macro data raised questions over how much headroom the US central bank has to keep raising rates and fueled speculations that the Fed’s year-long policy tightening cycle might be nearing the end. This, in turn, is holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) surprise 25 rate hike earlier this month continues to lend some support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and contributes to capping gains for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out and placing fresh bullish bets.
Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, leaving the USD/CAD pair at the mercy of the USD/Oil price dynamics amid relatively thin trading volumes on the back of a bank holiday in the US. The focus, however, will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors will look for fresh clues about the future rate-hike path, which will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the major.
Technical levels to watch
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