* . *
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact
Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Earth-News
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 1:51 p.m. EDT – Channel 3000

    Entertainment Highlights: Key Updates You Can’t Miss

    ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ casts Anne Hathaway’s love interest replacing Adrian Grenier’s Nate – Entertainment Weekly

    Devil Wears Prada 2′ Casts New Love Interest for Anne Hathaway, Replacing Adrian Grenier’s Nate

    12 ‘Late Show’ Moments Proving Stephen Colbert Can’t Be Replaced – The Mountaineer

    12 Unforgettable ‘Late Show’ Moments That Prove Stephen Colbert Is Truly One of a Kind

    Canes owner Tom Dundon’s real estate firm eyes entertainment complex near RDU – The Business Journals

    Canes Owner Tom Dundon’s Real Estate Firm Unveils Plans for Thrilling New Entertainment Complex Near RDU

    Inspired Entertainment, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:INSE) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 29% – simplywall.st

    Inspired Entertainment Soars 29% but Growth Momentum Falls Short

    Kroger shares summer entertainment tips – Supermarket Perimeter

    Ultimate Summer Entertainment Tips to Make Your Season Unforgettable

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Morgan Adamski Joins PwC in Newly Created Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division – HSToday

    Morgan Adamski Leads the Charge in PwC’s Cutting-Edge Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division

    Transformative technology, support for food entrepreneurs spotlighted – University of Hawaii System

    How Cutting-Edge Technology and Strong Support Are Revolutionizing Food Entrepreneurs’ Success

    Cold Weather Alloy Opens New Possibilities for Space Technology – Universe Today

    Revolutionary Cold Weather Alloy Unlocks New Frontiers in Space Technology

    Defence Holdings PLC Transitions from Esports to Pioneering Defence Technology

    Bull of the Day: Credo Technology Group (CRDO) – Yahoo Finance

    Bull of the Day: Why Credo Technology Group (CRDO) Is Poised for a Breakout

    BlackSky Technology Inc. Stock Analysis and Forecast – Explosive wealth accumulation – Jammu Links News

    BlackSky Technology Inc.: Unlocking Explosive Wealth Potential Through Expert Stock Analysis and Forecast

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 1:51 p.m. EDT – Channel 3000

    Entertainment Highlights: Key Updates You Can’t Miss

    ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ casts Anne Hathaway’s love interest replacing Adrian Grenier’s Nate – Entertainment Weekly

    Devil Wears Prada 2′ Casts New Love Interest for Anne Hathaway, Replacing Adrian Grenier’s Nate

    12 ‘Late Show’ Moments Proving Stephen Colbert Can’t Be Replaced – The Mountaineer

    12 Unforgettable ‘Late Show’ Moments That Prove Stephen Colbert Is Truly One of a Kind

    Canes owner Tom Dundon’s real estate firm eyes entertainment complex near RDU – The Business Journals

    Canes Owner Tom Dundon’s Real Estate Firm Unveils Plans for Thrilling New Entertainment Complex Near RDU

    Inspired Entertainment, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:INSE) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 29% – simplywall.st

    Inspired Entertainment Soars 29% but Growth Momentum Falls Short

    Kroger shares summer entertainment tips – Supermarket Perimeter

    Ultimate Summer Entertainment Tips to Make Your Season Unforgettable

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Morgan Adamski Joins PwC in Newly Created Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division – HSToday

    Morgan Adamski Leads the Charge in PwC’s Cutting-Edge Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division

    Transformative technology, support for food entrepreneurs spotlighted – University of Hawaii System

    How Cutting-Edge Technology and Strong Support Are Revolutionizing Food Entrepreneurs’ Success

    Cold Weather Alloy Opens New Possibilities for Space Technology – Universe Today

    Revolutionary Cold Weather Alloy Unlocks New Frontiers in Space Technology

    Defence Holdings PLC Transitions from Esports to Pioneering Defence Technology

    Bull of the Day: Credo Technology Group (CRDO) – Yahoo Finance

    Bull of the Day: Why Credo Technology Group (CRDO) Is Poised for a Breakout

    BlackSky Technology Inc. Stock Analysis and Forecast – Explosive wealth accumulation – Jammu Links News

    BlackSky Technology Inc.: Unlocking Explosive Wealth Potential Through Expert Stock Analysis and Forecast

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
Earth-News
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

Veteran market watcher Komal Sri Kumar warns of a ‘cloud of uncertainty’ and makes a bold call: ‘My base case is something breaking…in the next 3 months’

November 28, 2023
in Business
Veteran market watcher Komal Sri Kumar warns of a ‘cloud of uncertainty’ and makes a bold call: ‘My base case is something breaking…in the next 3 months’
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

After the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to fight the rise of inflation in March 2022, Wall Street’s top minds released a steady stream of recession predictions. Surely, they warned, rising borrowing costs, sky-high consumer prices, and geopolitical tensions would combine to slow the economy to a standstill—or worse. Some even argued that a “major recession,” an economic “hurricane,” or “another variant of a Great Depression” could be on the way.

But it’s been more than 20 months since the Fed’s first rate hike and we’re all still waiting for the experts’ nightmare scenarios to become reality. The labor market has remained relatively robust; GDP continues to grow; and inflation is falling back towards the 2% target rate.

The economy’s resilience has led some forecasters to revise or retract their pessimistic predictions. There’s even a growing group of experts who believe a “soft landing”—where interest rate hikes reduce inflation without sparking a recession—is now the most likely outcome for the U.S. in 2024.

But Komal Sri-Kumar, founder and president of the macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, isn’t buying the optimism. “My base case is something breaking,” he bluntly told CNBC Tuesday.

A veteran market watcher who spent years at the asset manager TCW Group as a chief global strategist before starting his own consulting firm, Sri-Kumar said he doesn’t foresee “anything specific” breaking, but there are so many fragile areas of the economy after 20 months of interest rate hikes that he’s sure something will crack—and soon. “I think you’re going to see a decisive moment come within the next three months,” he warned.

What might ‘break’

Sri-Kumar’s top areas of concern include the ailing commercial real estate market and banking sector, among many others. The commercial real estate sector has famously struggled due to rising borrowing costs over the past two years, with the office space segment being particularly affected as the persistence of the work-from-home trend leads to rising vacancies. Sri-Kumar warned that there could be more fallout to come in this sector in 2024, as office owners attempt to refinance their loans with interest rates at their current high levels.

Commercial real estate’s issues also play into Sri-Kumar’s biggest concern—“troubled loans” at banks. The veteran market watcher pointed to a recent study from the Kansas City Federal Reserve which found that U.S. banks have $550 billion in unrealized losses on their securities holdings. Unrealized losses were a major contributor to the panicked bank run that took down Silicon Valley Bank in March, making them a big concern for banks, especially if the economy begins to crack and loan defaults rise.

“At some point, it breaks,” Sri-Kumar said of banks’ rising unrealized losses, adding: “I don’t know whether it is this morning or a morning three months from now. And that’s the reason why you’re operating perennially in a cloud of uncertainty.”

The bulls are still on parade—for now

Sri-Kumar is one of many economists who have warned—and continue to warn—of impending economic doom over the past few years. But so far, in 2023, bulls have been rewarded for their faith in the U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 has returned roughly 19% to investors year to date, nearly making up for the losses it suffered in 2022 during the first phase of the Fed’s interest-rate-hiking campaign. At the same time, GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter, surprising economists, and inflation has fallen from its 9.1% peak in June 2022 to an annual rate of just 3.2% in October.

For Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, the solid data is a sign that we’re headed for a soft landing. “We’ve already gotten through the biggest hit from the tightening without the economy having entered a recession,” he said on the latest episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast.

Hatzius sees just a 15% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, which matches the average historical odds. It’s a stance that clashes with many of his Wall Street peers, however.

A number of top economists believe that the Fed won’t be able to truly tame inflation with interest rate hikes unless there is a significant rise in unemployment—owing to the Phillips Curve, an economic construct that argues that inflation and unemployment have an inverse relationship.

But Hatzius believes the old Phillips Curve model just doesn’t work. “Look at the scoreboard all around the world, and it’s really not just the U.S., we’ve seen this decline in inflation without much labor market weakness. It is possible,” he said.

The famed economist said he’s feeling more confident that the hard part of the Fed’s inflation fight is over and the economy has room to run. However, he cautioned that, in this uncertain economic environment, it’s important for forecasters to have “humility.” No one really has a crystal ball.

Subscribe to the CFO Daily newsletter to keep up with the trends, issues, and executives shaping corporate finance. Sign up for free.

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : Fortune – https://fortune.com/2023/11/27/recession-economy-something-breaking-komal-sri-kumar/

Tags: businessMarketveteran
Previous Post

Altcoin Rally Cools as Massive $650M Worth of Token Unlocks Loom Over Crypto Market

Next Post

Everything you need to know about 2024 ACA Open Enrollment

Morgan Adamski Joins PwC in Newly Created Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division – HSToday

Morgan Adamski Leads the Charge in PwC’s Cutting-Edge Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division

July 23, 2025
Women’s Gymnastics All Sports Schedule 2025 – Mountain West Conference

2025 Women’s Gymnastics Schedule: Can’t-Miss Matchups in the Mountain West Conference

July 23, 2025
Fyodor Konyukhov sets off on an ecological expedition across three oceans – realnoevremya.com

Fyodor Konyukhov sets off on an ecological expedition across three oceans – realnoevremya.com

July 22, 2025
‘A disaster for all of us’: US scientists describe impact of Trump cuts – theguardian.com

A Disaster for All of Us’: How Trump’s Cuts Devastated US Science

July 22, 2025
Lycoming College launches new data science academic program – NorthcentralPA.com

Lycoming College Launches Exciting New Data Science Program

July 22, 2025
Lifestyle startup Escape Plan raises $5 million to launch over 100 offline stores across India – Indian Startup News

Lifestyle Startup Escape Plan Raises $5 Million to Launch Over 100 Offline Stores Across India

July 22, 2025
Kauffman Foundation launches new executive role to lead its Real World Learning team – Startland News

Kauffman Foundation Launches Dynamic New Executive Role to Propel Real-World Learning Initiatives

July 22, 2025
Economic Planning Shouldn’t Be a Swear Word – Jacobin

Why It’s Time to Give Economic Planning Another Shot

July 22, 2025
AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 1:51 p.m. EDT – Channel 3000

Entertainment Highlights: Key Updates You Can’t Miss

July 22, 2025
Department of Labor changes home health care, migrant farm worker rules – WBUR

Department of Labor changes home health care, migrant farm worker rules – WBUR

July 22, 2025

Categories

Archives

July 2025
MTWTFSS
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031 
« Jun    
Earth-News.info

The Earth News is an independent English-language daily published Website from all around the World News

Browse by Category

  • Business (20,132)
  • Ecology (734)
  • Economy (757)
  • Entertainment (21,641)
  • General (16,047)
  • Health (9,795)
  • Lifestyle (765)
  • News (22,149)
  • People (759)
  • Politics (766)
  • Science (15,974)
  • Sports (21,255)
  • Technology (15,740)
  • World (740)

Recent News

Morgan Adamski Joins PwC in Newly Created Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division – HSToday

Morgan Adamski Leads the Charge in PwC’s Cutting-Edge Cyber, Data & Technology Risk Division

July 23, 2025
Women’s Gymnastics All Sports Schedule 2025 – Mountain West Conference

2025 Women’s Gymnastics Schedule: Can’t-Miss Matchups in the Mountain West Conference

July 23, 2025
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

Go to mobile version