India has always been watchful of the extent of its defence relationship with the United States. The fear of losing political capital through military dependency has often outweighed all other security considerations. And this doubt has lurked on all governments.
Which is why a potential jet engine deal and the purchase of 31 MQ 9B Predator/Sea Guardian drones could prove to be a big turning point. Both these deals are an investment into a long-term security strategy. The idea is that GE 414 jet engine is the start of a plan that will eventually build into the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), providing a long-term India-made fighter jet option. The acquisition of MQ 9 B drones is a clear edge on China, which does not have a competing High-Altitude Long Endurance drone that can operate from about 30,000 feet for about 30 hours.
The important part is these are grounded on a platform of political trust with the US, which is mirrored by far-reaching commitments to remove regulatory barriers to translate this trust into actual cooperation. But for all this to happen, India had to shed its old political inhibitions on sensitive military cooperation with the US. That’s the deeper shift necessitated by reality checks to old security assumptions.
RELIABILITY
The first reality check was on the reliability of military supplies. What are a country’s options if its main military adversary is a dominant ally of its principal military supplier? Russia, India’s longstanding defence partner, is in such a situation. It can never deny China access to military technology supplied to India, which is an edge Beijing already has on New Delhi.
SUPPLY
The second check is that Russia’s ability to service and supply, especially on high-end tech is vastly debilitated by western sanctions due to the war with Ukraine. India does not have the comfort to wait or delay, especially in the backdrop of amassing Chinese troops across the Line of Actual Control.
INHIBITIONS
The third reality check is that New Delhi’s inhibitions to partner with the US have been effectively deployed by Pakistan and China against India. Both have used this tentativeness to leverage their ties with the US in the 1970s and 1980s. While China developed access to American tech ecosystem, Pakistan obtained cutting edge military equipment like the F-16s. In other words, India’s reluctance was a gain for its adversaries as the US sought to build partnerships in the region. Deeper defence engagement with the US, for one, removes the possibility of Washington undermining India’s security interests, which at present are very much aligned.
AND THE FINAL ONE
The final reality check, of course, has been on the prospects of building a mutually beneficial relationship with China, one of peaceful coexistence that would define the onset of the Asian century. This assessment now stands debunked. China’s actions on India and in the rest of Asia, including the South China Sea, bares Beijing’s intent of turning the Asian century into China’s century. That revelation on the barren slopes of Ladakh has left no doubt in India as to where the real threat to its political authority is coming from, which is why it must chart a new course focusing on the opportunities while managing the risks.
Views expressed are author’s own
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