Why is Trump almost certain to romp in Iowa? Compared to 2016, first-time caucusgoers and evangelicals are giving him huge leads over his GOP rivals.

Former President Donald Trump is poised to win big in the Iowa caucuses on Monday.The final pre-caucus NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Trump ahead of Haley 48%-20%.Trump’s robust support among first-time and evangelical voters is far ahead of his 2016 standing.

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Former President Donald Trump has long boasted enviable leads over his GOP challengers in polling for the Iowa caucuses, but his appeal with first-time caucusgoers and evangelical voters has put him in a class by himself a day before voting begins.

In the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released on Saturday, Trump was backed by 48% of likely GOP voters in Iowa, with former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at 20% support, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.

Trump’s 48% mark represents some minor slippage from last month’s poll, where the former president earned 51% support among GOP caucusgoers.

However, the final GOP caucus poll still shows Trump nearly 30 points ahead of Haley, and the former president has majority support among both first-time caucusgoers (56%) and evangelical Christians (51%) — with a stratospheric 88% of his supporters stating that they’re extremely enthusiastic about his candidacy.

Trump is in the best position he’s ever been in for a contested GOP caucus in Iowa. The 2016 caucus results provide a measure of just how much the former president has throttled his competition this time around.

How does Trump’s standing compare to 2016?

In 2016, Trump was still new to GOP politics, but he needed no introduction to the American public after his years as a celebrity businessman.

At first glance, Trump’s brash personality seemed ill-suited for Iowa, known for its Midwestern sensibilities and, until recently, its status as one of the nation’s most recognizable swing states.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the Iowa GOP caucuses in 2016.

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

But despite Trump’s second-place finish in the 2016 caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, he still performed better than a slate of more established GOP candidates, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who had long been seen as the presumed frontrunner before his campaign ultimately fell apart.

In 2016, Cruz edged out Trump 28%-24% in Iowa, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in third place with 23% support. (Bush came in sixth place with roughly 3% support.)

In that contest, Cruz edged out Trump among evangelicals 34%-22%, with Rubio close behind at 21% support. And polling showed that evangelicals comprised roughly 64% of the GOP caucus electorate that year.

If Trump wins a majority of the evangelical vote on Monday and they turn out in similar numbers to 2016, he’ll more than likely be the runaway victor in the contest.

DeSantis in the final Iowa pre-caucus poll of 2024 attracted the support of 22% of evangelicals, an overperformance compared to his overall 16% share of support among likely GOP caucusgoers.

The Florida governor has staked his campaign on a strong showing in Iowa, so the stakes are higher for him in rallying this group to give him a fighting chance to beat out Haley for the second-place slot.

Ahead of Monday, Trump continues to benefit from his strength with GOP voters overall, including those who haven’t participated in a caucus before. The former president won first-time GOP caucusgoers in 2016, earning 30% of their vote compared to Cruz’s 23% support. The former president’s 56% support with this group is nearly double his support from eight years ago.

These benefits are adding up for Trump in a major way as he looks to win Iowa and march to the GOP presidential nomination.

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