* . *
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact
Tuesday, June 3, 2025
Earth-News
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    Rising stars: Young classical musicians surging on social media – Yahoo

    Meet the Next Generation of Classical Music Sensations Making Waves on Social Media!

    Devin Harjes Dies: ‘Manifest’ & ‘Boardwalk Empire’ Actor Was 41 – WyomingNews.com

    Tragic Loss: Devin Harjes, Star of ‘Manifest’ and ‘Boardwalk Empire,’ Passes Away at 41

    Why Starz Entertainment Stock Soared Today – The Motley Fool

    Unpacking the Surge: What Fueled Starz Entertainment’s Stock Explosion Today!

    Unveiling the Enigmatic: First Looks at Destruction and Puck in ‘The Sandman

    Jackie Chan Reveals This Family Member ‘Never Watched’ The Whole Of Any Of His Movies – Yahoo

    Jackie Chan Reveals This Family Member ‘Never Watched’ The Whole Of Any Of His Movies – Yahoo

    Mavs CEO holds firm on new arena, entertainment district in Dallas – Dallas News

    Mavs CEO Stands Strong on Vision for New Arena and Entertainment District in Dallas

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    AI for lawyers: Win back your time using technology – nationaljurist.com

    Reclaim Your Time: How AI is Transforming the Legal Profession

    Prosecutors accuse men of exporting U.S. military technology to China – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

    Men Charged with Illegally Exporting U.S. Military Technology to China

    ROLAND’S NEW WIRELESS TRIGGER TECHNOLOGY, PORTER & DAVIES ON TOUR, NEW 64 AUDIO ASPIRE UNIVERSAL IEM MODELS, WAVES FREE PLUGIN PACK – Modern Drummer Magazine

    ROLAND’S NEW WIRELESS TRIGGER TECHNOLOGY, PORTER & DAVIES ON TOUR, NEW 64 AUDIO ASPIRE UNIVERSAL IEM MODELS, WAVES FREE PLUGIN PACK – Modern Drummer Magazine

    This giant microwave may change the future of war – MIT Technology Review

    Revolutionizing Warfare: The Impact of a Game-Changing Giant Microwave

    Bajeed Pattan Joins Forbes Technology Council as Innovation Leader – PRWeb

    Bajeed Pattan Takes the Helm as Innovation Leader at Forbes Technology Council!

    Lafayette Regional Technology Council – Tech Leadership That’s Homegrown and Future-Focused – Discover Lafayette

    Lafayette Regional Technology Council – Tech Leadership That’s Homegrown and Future-Focused – Discover Lafayette

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    Rising stars: Young classical musicians surging on social media – Yahoo

    Meet the Next Generation of Classical Music Sensations Making Waves on Social Media!

    Devin Harjes Dies: ‘Manifest’ & ‘Boardwalk Empire’ Actor Was 41 – WyomingNews.com

    Tragic Loss: Devin Harjes, Star of ‘Manifest’ and ‘Boardwalk Empire,’ Passes Away at 41

    Why Starz Entertainment Stock Soared Today – The Motley Fool

    Unpacking the Surge: What Fueled Starz Entertainment’s Stock Explosion Today!

    Unveiling the Enigmatic: First Looks at Destruction and Puck in ‘The Sandman

    Jackie Chan Reveals This Family Member ‘Never Watched’ The Whole Of Any Of His Movies – Yahoo

    Jackie Chan Reveals This Family Member ‘Never Watched’ The Whole Of Any Of His Movies – Yahoo

    Mavs CEO holds firm on new arena, entertainment district in Dallas – Dallas News

    Mavs CEO Stands Strong on Vision for New Arena and Entertainment District in Dallas

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    AI for lawyers: Win back your time using technology – nationaljurist.com

    Reclaim Your Time: How AI is Transforming the Legal Profession

    Prosecutors accuse men of exporting U.S. military technology to China – Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

    Men Charged with Illegally Exporting U.S. Military Technology to China

    ROLAND’S NEW WIRELESS TRIGGER TECHNOLOGY, PORTER & DAVIES ON TOUR, NEW 64 AUDIO ASPIRE UNIVERSAL IEM MODELS, WAVES FREE PLUGIN PACK – Modern Drummer Magazine

    ROLAND’S NEW WIRELESS TRIGGER TECHNOLOGY, PORTER & DAVIES ON TOUR, NEW 64 AUDIO ASPIRE UNIVERSAL IEM MODELS, WAVES FREE PLUGIN PACK – Modern Drummer Magazine

    This giant microwave may change the future of war – MIT Technology Review

    Revolutionizing Warfare: The Impact of a Game-Changing Giant Microwave

    Bajeed Pattan Joins Forbes Technology Council as Innovation Leader – PRWeb

    Bajeed Pattan Takes the Helm as Innovation Leader at Forbes Technology Council!

    Lafayette Regional Technology Council – Tech Leadership That’s Homegrown and Future-Focused – Discover Lafayette

    Lafayette Regional Technology Council – Tech Leadership That’s Homegrown and Future-Focused – Discover Lafayette

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
Earth-News
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

Wietze Post – Electricity supply: Wishful thinking and economic reality (Part 1)

February 21, 2024
in Business
Wietze Post – Electricity supply: Wishful thinking and economic reality (Part 1)
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has released the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2023), suggesting new investments in gas, “clean” coal, and nuclear plants, along with solar PV, wind generators, and batteries. Despite the proposals, skepticism arises over the development of gas, coal, and nuclear projects due to financial challenges. Ir. Wietze Post explores global price trends, manufacturing experiences, and solar practices, introducing concepts like “Wright’s Law” and the “Duck Curve” to shed light on the evolving energy landscape.

Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.

By Ir. Wietze Post

The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has published the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2023). You can find the complete set of IRP documents here.

The IRP proposes new purchases of gas, “clean” coal, and nuclear plants. Also, solar PV, wind generators, and batteries. DMRE expects non-state entities to add 900MW of distributed generation annually. In 2023, South Africans made a good deal of progress. According to Eskom, every quarter we put up about 650MW of solar PV (photovoltaic) – 2,6GW in total. Chinese records show that they exported 4,345GW to SA.

I expect the gas, coal, and nuclear plants will not be developed. They will struggle to reach a financial close on the commercial market.

In the next few articles, I’ll explain why I have the expectations that I do. They’re based on global price trends, manufacturing experience, and solar usage practices. Besides, consumers want to pay as little as possible for electricity. Consumers want lots more electricity when it’s cheap.

I’ll introduce you to “Wright’s Law”, and the “Duck Curve.” Besides, I note that making things by hand causes each unit to be different. Yet in a factory products can be standardised.

Wright’s Law | The Learning Curve

Theodore Wright was a U.S. aeronautical engineer. In 1936, he published a paper “Factors affecting the costs of airplanes.” It describes what is known as Wright’s law or experience curve effects. The paper describes that “we learn by doing.” The cost of each unit decreases as a function of the cumulative number of units produced.

Wright found that every time total aeroplane production doubled, the labour time for a new one fell by 20%. This has become known as “Wright’s Law.” It’s also known as the learning curve.

Let’s bake a cake!

Let’s apply Wright’s Law to how you learn to bake a cake. The first time you ever bake a cake, you will get advice, follow a recipe, and take a lot of time. You may have to buy ingredients and equipment. The result may not be all that great.

The second time you bake that cake, you’ll make fewer mistakes. You’ll improve how you do things. Your process will be faster. The cake will look and taste better.

The third and fourth time you bake that cake, it will go faster and better. You’ll have some routine by the time you bake the eighth cake. You’ll be praised for how yummy your cake is!

That may encourage you to bake many more of those cakes and sell them. You’ll buy ingredients in bulk and get more equipment so you can speed things up. You’ll hire help and figure out how to sell better.

You may bake another sort of cake, for variety. You’ll have experience from the first cake, so you’ll avoid some mistakes.

The learning rate also applies to making each cake look the same, i.e., standardising. You’ll want to lower costs and improve quality. Especially when you start baking cakes in a dedicated kitchen, or factory bakery. When you expand and build a new bakery, you’ll include layout and workflow improvements.

You may have an idea that can radically speed up cake baking. That would be a step-change in baking cakes at a much lower cost, faster, and with higher quality. Then you can sell cheaper than everybody else. A slightly lower cost may be enough to sell many more. Yet you’ll make a bigger profit per cake because your costs are so much lower than your competitors. You’ll sell many more cakes because they’re cheaper than others. Besides, you’ll make a larger profit altogether, because you’re selling more cakes.

Wright’s Law says that you learn at a steady rate when going from 1 to 2 cakes, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, and so on. In other words, the learning rate is steady across every doubling of what has gone before. You have the same rate of learning when going from 2 million to 4 million units, as you did from 1 million to 2 million. You’ll have the same percentage of cost reduction and quality improvements.

Making solar panels, batteries, and coal power plants

As it does for cakes, a rate of learning applies to making solar panels, inverters, batteries, and cars. It also applies to coal power plants. But coal power plants are nearly always one of a kind. They’re built by hand. Yet they may have components built in a small run. And there are lessons from building previous power plants, even if they’re not identical.

Yet those lessons may not apply to the current (coal power) project. They may thus be incorrectly applied. Medupi and Kusile’s design engineers had a particular knowledge set. Unfortunately, it was inappropriate for their boilers, grinding mills and fabric filters. Besides, these two plants were not identical. That led to exorbitant cost overruns.

Yet usually costs and quality improve with experience/learning. Prices drop, and quality improves, in line with Wright’s Law.

Note it’s the intrinsic value and quality of the items that improve. When we look at solar panels, we get more generation capacity for less cost. Meanwhile, manufacturing speed and uniformity improve. So the panels’ quality improves and with that it’s longevity.

Thus the generation capacity improves. The panel’s cost may increase, but it can generate much more power. So its cost per unit of generation capacity (R/kWp*) goes down.

Richard Swanson coined Swanson’s Law. It’s like Moore’s Law (computer chip capacity). Both Swanson’s and Moore’s Laws come from Wright’s Law. Swanson said the price of solar PV modules drops 20 per cent for every doubling of cumulative sales. Now PV panel costs go down about 75% in 10 years. That’s about 12% per year. PV panel costs have gone from $125,83/Wp in 1975 to $0,26/Wp in 2022 (constant 2021 USD/Wp). On a logarithmic scale, the annual price decrease resembles a straight line. Thus we can predict the likely price in future.

With batteries, the cost per unit of storage capacity improves. In other words, the cost of a kWh of storage capacity goes down. A quality and reliability measure is how often you can charge and discharge a battery. It’s measured in cycles of fully charging and discharging the battery. More cycles are better. So a battery should be better when this number goes down: Rand/kWh/cycle, e.g., R84000/11,2kWh/5000 cycles=R1,50. That’s the nominal cost for storing a kWh.

For vehicles, the cost, speed, comfort, and safety of travelling a kilometre improves. And pollution decreases.

Read also:

Wietze Post – What if the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t show? 
Wietze Post on Energy: Base load, reliable supply and risk of generators
Wietze Post: Future of energy – refiners, smelters and other opportunities for renewables

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : BizNews – https://www.biznews.com/energy/2024/02/21/wietze-post-electricity-supply-economic-reality

Tags: businessElectricityWietze
Previous Post

Recession Watch: Would a Downturn Clobber the Housing Market or Make It Affordable Again?

Next Post

Tourism turmoil: South Africa’s bureaucratic tango threatens travel thrive – Ivo Vegter

AI for lawyers: Win back your time using technology – nationaljurist.com

Reclaim Your Time: How AI is Transforming the Legal Profession

June 3, 2025
LeBron James details his gripes with the current state of youth sports: ‘A lot of kids burn the hell out’ – CBS Sports

LeBron James Opens Up About the Challenges Facing Youth Sports: “So Many Kids Are Burning Out

June 2, 2025
Restoration cannot be scaled up globally to save reefs from loss and degradation – Nature

Reviving Our Reefs: The Challenge of Scaling Up Restoration Efforts Globally

June 2, 2025
Attorney General Bonta Sues to Stop Termination, Withholding of National Science Foundation Grants – State of California – Department of Justice (.gov)

Attorney General Bonta Takes Action to Protect National Science Foundation Grants

June 2, 2025
Exclusive: US veterans agency orders scientists not to publish in journals without clearance – The Guardian

US Veterans Agency Imposes New Restrictions on Scientific Publishing

June 2, 2025
Upper Allen Township launches new initiative to encourage a more active lifestyle – fox43.com

Upper Allen Township launches new initiative to encourage a more active lifestyle – fox43.com

June 2, 2025
Lionel Messi rejoins Argentina for two World Cup qualifiers before Club World Cup – USA Today

Lionel Messi rejoins Argentina for two World Cup qualifiers before Club World Cup – USA Today

June 2, 2025
Jobs Report Could Be Early Sign of Tariffs Cost – U.S. News & World Report

Jobs Report Could Be Early Sign of Tariffs Cost – U.S. News & World Report

June 2, 2025
Mark Tremonti Headlines Belmont Stakes Day Entertainment – Thoroughbred Daily News

Mark Tremonti Takes Center Stage at Belmont Stakes Day Celebration!

June 2, 2025
Black Book Research: Health Plans Double Down on AI-Powered Fraud and Claims Integrity Solutions Amid Rising Audit Pressures – Newswire :) Press Release Distribution

Health Plans Embrace AI to Combat Fraud and Enhance Claims Integrity Amid Growing Audit Challenges

June 2, 2025

Categories

Archives

June 2025
MTWTFSS
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30 
« May    
Earth-News.info

The Earth News is an independent English-language daily published Website from all around the World News

Browse by Category

  • Business (20,132)
  • Ecology (660)
  • Economy (674)
  • Entertainment (21,580)
  • General (15,257)
  • Health (9,717)
  • Lifestyle (677)
  • News (22,149)
  • People (676)
  • Politics (683)
  • Science (15,895)
  • Sports (21,180)
  • Technology (15,662)
  • World (662)

Recent News

AI for lawyers: Win back your time using technology – nationaljurist.com

Reclaim Your Time: How AI is Transforming the Legal Profession

June 3, 2025
LeBron James details his gripes with the current state of youth sports: ‘A lot of kids burn the hell out’ – CBS Sports

LeBron James Opens Up About the Challenges Facing Youth Sports: “So Many Kids Are Burning Out

June 2, 2025
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

Go to mobile version