Wimbledon winners: The stats behind what makes a tennis champion

Winning Wimbledon requires a blend of physical prowess and psychological resilience, and IBM’s statistical analysis reveals the fine margins that define a champion. Key metrics include limiting unforced errors to under 121 across seven matches, achieving a first serve success rate of at least 67%, and maintaining a tiebreak success rate of 60%. Champions run over 20km on court and play nearly 20 hours. For women, 110 unforced errors and 63% first serves are critical benchmarks. IBM’s generative AI, watsonx.ai, will enhance this year’s tournament with detailed pre-match previews and post-match analyses, offering fans deeper insights into every player’s performance.

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By Martyn Herman

There are a multitude of factors that make a Wimbledon champion both physical and psychological, but the tournament’s official tech partner IBM has stripped it down to pure statistics.

Five different players have won the men’s title in the past decade — Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal, Andy Murray and Carlos Alcaraz — and those wanting to join them might want to cast their eye over IBM’s data.

Make more than 121 unforced errors across seven matches and the chances of winning the title decline — that works out at a miserly 17 per round. Roger Federer’s 2016 title run saw him commit just 65 errors in seven matches.

Male singles champions over the past 10 years have landed at least 67% of their first serves while serving nine or 10 aces per match — with Djokovic registering an extraordinary 72% of first serves in during his 2018 triumph.

A men’s champion, according to IBM’s number-crunchers, will need to have at least a 60% success rate in tiebreaks and convert at least 64% of their set points.

They will also need to be ready to cover every blade of grass and run over 20km in up to 20 hours on court.

When Djokovic won the title in 2021 his total cumulative distance on court was 38,700 metres while Alcaraz’s 20.3 hours on court in 2023 was the longest shift of the last decade.

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Nine different women have won the women’s title in the past 10 years — but the margins for errors are just as slender.

A would be champion should commit no more than 110 unforced errors in seven matches and make 63% of first serves, although serving aces is less of a factor.

Serena Williams fired down 80 in 2015 but Simona Halep won the title with 10 in seven rounds in 2019.

And while the women’s singles is played over a shorter format, around 14,000 metres will still need to be covered by a champion, and it can be much higher than that.

In 2021 Australian Ashleigh Barty clocked up 32,500m — second only to Djokovic that year.

IBM will be rolling out pre-match previews and post-match analysis on every singles player this year with the help of its generative AI platform called watsonx.ai.

“The generative AI application extracts and summarises relevant data and generates stories in natural language, tuned to the style and vocabulary of Wimbledon,” IBM said.