The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election have significantly increased after him being the victim of an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. The former president was shot in his ear, making blood run down his face on the afternoon of July 13. However, he still managed to raise his fist regardless of the injury which resonated with his supporters and seemed to improve his chances.
Rally Shooting Propels Trump’s Winning Chances, Parallels Drawn to Reagan’s 1981 Boost
Trump’s winning chances were already high before this incident. According to a New Zealand-based online market PredictIt, Trump had 59 cents to the dollar odds, reported Daily Mail. However, immediately after the shooting they rose to 66 cents and stayed stable as Joe Biden’s dropped to 22 cents. On the Ethereum-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders’ confidence in him grew as well – from 50% up to 70%.
During the rally, a 20-year-old man named Thomas Matthew Crooks fired at Trump from a nearby rooftop. The Secret Service quickly responded, but not before one rally attendee was killed and two others critically injured. The attacker was killed by the police force. Trump’s team acknowledged that he was not badly hurt except for his ear. In a hospital statement, Trump said he still wants to campaign.
The assassination attempt drew comparisons with the 1981 attack on President Reagan, which prompted an outpouring of public support for Reagan. Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, said these events tended to “consolidate support and reduce electoral uncertainty” – potentially paving the way for a landslide win. Geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham agreed, suggesting that it would likely help Trump’s campaign.
High-Profile Endorsements Flood in for Trump After Rally Assault
After the assault, there have been many high-profile endorsements. For example, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, publicly supported Trump by commending his toughness and resilient spirit. Another endorsement came from billionaire investor Bill Ackman who cited careful thought and empirical evidence as his reasons for backing Trump. This endorsement wave spread to the cryptocurrency sphere where influential figures like Justin Sun and the Winklevoss twins made known their support for him.
The whole world was united against this act of violence with leaders from different countries as well as American politicians condemning it too. President Joe Biden said he was relieved when he heard that Donald Trump escaped unhurt before adding that America should not entertain any form of violence. Kamala Harris echoed similar sentiments in her statement.Not only affecting political betting markets, this shooting has had wider implications.
For example, Bitcoin’s price surged to almost $60,000 after it while various Trump-themed meme coins also recorded huge gains in their prices. The reason behind such market behavior is that people expect a win by Trump will create a favorable environment for digital currencies since he has endorsed the sector previously.
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