‘Oppenheimer’ Will Be the Biggest Test of Christopher Nolan’s Box Office Power

A three-hour film about nukes is a hard sell – unless the director of ”The Dark Knight“ is making it

Christopher Nolan is one of precious few filmmakers whose name is a major box office draw, and Universal is banking on that being the case with his latest film “Oppenheimer,” a three-hour biopic about the man who led the development of the nuclear bomb and, as one person says in the film, gave humanity “the power to destroy themselves.”

A film with that subject matter would be a hard sell if any other director was attached. Since theaters reopened, films that explore serious, real-life issues have often been the domain of limited release, and even there they have struggled. Oscar contenders like Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” and Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” struggled to build much of a theatrical following, while Universal’s “She Said,” based on the New York Times investigation of Harvey Weinstein, had one of the worst wide-release runs in box office history.

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It has become clear that audiences have favored films that offer escape from the problems of the real world rather than confronting them, but Nolan’s presence can change how a movie like “Oppenheimer” is perceived.

Whether it is a dramatic reimagining of a legendary hero with “The Dark Knight” trilogy, mind-bending sci-fi originals like “Inception” and “Interstellar” or gripping period pieces like “Dunkirk,” Nolan’s films have been marketed for over a decade as true motion picture events. The filmmaker’s devoted fans have gone the extra mile and paid the extra money to see his work on the biggest screen possible, and in rarely-used formats like 70mm film.

Box office tracking currently points to those devotees turning out in droves to see “Oppenheimer.” While Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” is slated to easily take No. 1, and possibly earn the summer’s biggest opening weekend, “Oppenheimer” is expected to do quite well with an opening weekend of at least $45 million. Exhibition sources who spoke to TheWrap said that based on advance ticket sales the film has a shot to top $50 million this weekend, which would put it above the $50.5 million domestic launch of “Dunkirk” in 2017.

Such a result would be a big win for both Universal and Nolan given the film’s grim tone and subject matter and would put “Oppenheimer” in a position to turn a theatrical profit against its reported $100 million production budget and $100 million marketing campaign.

At that price tag, “Dunkirk” will be the measure of success not only for opening weekend but for the entire run of “Oppenheimer.” Six years ago, “Dunkirk” grossed $188 million domestically and $525 million worldwide, including $80 million from Great Britain and $50.9 million from China.

Given China’s near-abandonment of Hollywood films, and the extra boost that the U.K. gave to “Dunkirk” on account of it being a WWII film, the totals earned by “Oppenheimer” in those countries probably won’t be as high. It’s also possible that “Oppenheimer” won’t have a release in Japan, as Universal has not scheduled an opening date there given that nuclear weapons are a sensitive subject.

But Nolan’s popularity amongst cinema lovers in the U.S. also extends to Europe. Back in 2020, Warner Bros., at Nolan’s urging, released his sci-fi film “Tenet” during the peak of the pandemic in an effort to provide financial relief for theaters. While the U.S. was suffering through a spike in infections at the time, “Tenet” was able to take advantage of a lull in infections in other countries to gross $306 million internationally, including $20 million-plus runs in the U.K., France and Germany.

“Oppenheimer” is also getting a little extra help from its simultaneous release date with “Barbie,” as the National Association of Theater Owners is claiming that 200,000 people have bought tickets to both films on the same day. That may only be a sliver of this film’s overall grosses, but it’s clear that the “Barbenheimer” craze is attracting moviegoers who may otherwise not have been as interested in “Oppenheimer.”

We won’t know until the second weekend and beyond — after “Barbenheimer” has faded and the hardcore Nolan fans have come out — just how big of an appetite there is among audiences to see Nolan’s darkest film yet. If it can sustain itself and reach $500 million worldwide, that will be a big sign of hope for the film industry that mature fare can still be profitable in wide release.

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