Top-15 2024 CH prospects: Introduction, graduates and honorable mentions

Tradition dictates that between seasons means a new top-15 of Habs prospects!

Except for a few summers when there wasn’t enough time, I’ve been doing this for about ten years now, ranking the Tricolore’s youngsters according to their anticipated degree of importance based on this simple question: Which ones seem most likely to help the Tricolore make significant progress?

I well remember the inglorious days when Beaulieu, Sherbak, McCarron, De La Rose, Hudon and Andrighetto occupied enviable positions in this ranking, for want of a better word!

But even if we didn’t have much choice but to predict relatively important roles for them within the organization, it’s worth noting that we didn’t use the qualifiers “superstar” or “star player” in these articles dating back to 2014, and that we limited our list to 12 players, because it would have been indecent to push the envelope to 15!

It’s been a very different story over the past few seasons, especially with the drafting of Caufield, Slafkovsky, Hutson, Reinbacher and now Demidov.

The first three have already shown us a good deal of their know-how, either during long, productive NHL spells, or with impressive track records and flashes that don’t deceive.

As for Reinbacher and Demidov, who were both taken 5th overall in the last two drafts, all hopes are high.

In the case of these five players, the enviable qualifiers mentioned above could all apply to varying degrees.

So now we’re talking quality as well as quantity.

It’s not for nothing that the CH’s bank of prospects has often ranked among the best in the NHL in recent years, including on this recent list, which doesn’t even include Slafkovsky because he’s played more than 100 NHL games (121)…

Introduction : What is a prospect?

As you might guess, if there’s one concept in the world of sports that’s open to a great deal of subjectivity, it’s that ofhope. Perhaps even more so in hockey, a sport that develops rather late in life, where things are often more difficult to categorize and predict, for a number of reasons too long to explain here.

In my opinion, the fact that a player is supposedly established for good in the NHL should not deprive him of his “prospect” status. A prospect can play in the NHL on a regular basis, because that’s where more and more teams are developing their best youngsters.

They know they won’t see the “finished product” for a few, if not many years, and are prepared to live with that, preferring to work directly with their gems on a daily basis.

Juraj Slafkovsky, for example, established himself in the NHL at the age of 18, but that’s mainly because they decided to develop him at the top rather than elsewhere. Then, despite his first obvious breakthrough at 19, he doesn’t seem set to stop there.

Slafkovsky will therefore be included in our ranking.

It’s clear that there shouldn’t be a magic number of games that determines everything. In my opinion, the number of games played in the NHL is the most arbitrary of “objective” criteria!

A bit like “best before” yogurt on July 30 that doesn’t suddenly become inedible at midnight, a prospect doesn’t suddenly become a veteran who has shown us all his potential becausehe’s played 50, 80 or even 125 games in the show!

Slafkovsky may have played 121 games, but we can’t yet see the end of his progression curve.

Conversely, others, often arriving later at the age of 21-22-23 (Harris, Struble, Evans), will often only take a few dozen games before giving us a pretty good idea of their optimum potential.

For my part, I believe that it’s when this progression curve stabilizes and expectations of players materialize that we should graduate them. Not before.

Once development is complete, it’s time to move on to improvement (see Suzuki, Nick).

A prospect is a young player who hasn’t yet made it to the NHL, or for whom there’s still a clear progression to be rationally and realistically expected. Something like a great blossoming, a confirmation of his potential on a regular basis in the NHL.

By extension, a bank of hopefuls is simply a bank of still-developing potential.

Finally, I think this “flexible” definition avoids certain aberrations in the analysis of prospect banks following hasty graduations based on a fixed number of games.

For the rest, we’ll rank the hopefuls in this top-15 according to our usual criteria:
Potential: 40
Assurance of reaching potential: 20%.
Value in use/rarity/uniqueness: 30%.
Trade value: 10%.

So, let’s get down to the 2024 graduates before saying a few words about the honorable mentions outside the top-15.

The graduates

Alex Newhook | Latest Ranking: 6th

Almost a graduate last year, Newhook didn’t revolutionize the team when he arrived, but nobody expected him to become the reincarnation of Mats Naslund.

Following the departure of several forwards (Drouin, Byron, Hoffman, Pitlick) Kent Hughes, his former agent, had decided to trade his picks 31 and 37 in 2023 to get his hands on a good mid-line contributor, and that’s exactly what he got.

It looks like the Habs have already won part of their bet, as Newhook just happened to hit the other “little notch” they were hoping for.

Over 82 games, the Newfoundlander would easily have recorded around 50 points, and that’s more or less what we’re entitled to expect from him in the seasons to come.

With a little fine-tuning, if he were to become a better playmaker, 60-65 point seasons could be within his grasp.

But, as such, we shouldn’t be talking about a player who will be very different from the one we saw last year.

Newhook just needs to stay healthy and do his part to the best of his ability, i.e., use his speed to create openings and continue to be opportunistic in scoring position. In short, continue to be a good complementary player.

Jayden Struble | Latest ranking: honorable mention

Much like Harris before him, Struble arrived almost as a finished product from Northeastern University, and his transition to the AHL, as well as the NHL, has been almost seamless.

A good skater, sturdy, capable of playing with aplomb while showing a little offensive touch, he’ll be 23 in October. Struble, however, lacks the vision, hands and creativity to become much more than what he is now: an athletic, hard-working young man capable of holding his own as a 6th-7th defenseman.

In Montreal, however, he is the 6th most important left-handed defenseman and could soon be joined and surpassed by others… Which is why we wouldn’t be surprised to see him back in Laval in October, as he still doesn’t have to go through the waivers, unlike some of his teammates.

Unless there’s a major shake-up among the left-handed players and he’s spared, his future in the NHL might be brighter elsewhere…

Honorable Mentions

Evgeny Volokhin | Last ranking : none

Let’s kick off our analysis of honorable mentions by saying that Volokhin is a bit of a wild card on this list. His stats in the MHL (Russia’s major junior league, the same league as Demidov) have been absolutely staggering over the past two years, and the limit of his potential remains very hard to predict.

Volokhin is tall and athletic, and his coaches believe he has the temperament to make his way to the NHL.

Could this be the Russian goalie who deserves to be in the top-8 of this list? Only in retrospect will we be able to tell in 4-5 years!

But since some members of the organization already believe that he may be the best goaltending prospect in the Habs’ bank, we’ll at least be conservative in giving him a prominent place in our honorable mentions.

Oliver Kapanen | Latest Ranking: Honorable Mention

At last, we’ll have a better idea of whether Grant McCagg’s high expectations of the Finnish centre – a potential second center! – are justified, since Kapanen, 21 in a few days’ time, will be at the next training camp.

For my part, despite his statistical improvement last year, notably in the Liiga series and at the World Senior Championship, I still realistically don’t see him as anything more than a fourth-line center in the NHL.

Oliver Kapanen stays hot! @leijonat opens the scoring early against Norway. #MensWorlds #NORFIN @timra_ik pic.twitter.com/C4oEIyQoYy

– IIHF (@IIHFHockey) May 13, 2024

An intelligent, hard-working player, Kapanen seems to have found a way to be in the right place at the right time more often – which is already an important NHL quality – but he’s not a great creator on the ice and will therefore have to rely on good teammates to be productive.

So, in an ideal world, Kapanen could eventually take the place of Jake Evans. It remains to be seen whether his transition to America will go smoothly, which is no guarantee for the Finns these days… Incidentally, the prospect is already covering his bases, since in addition to his three-year contract with the Habs, he also has a valid two-year deal in his pocket with Timra, his father’s club in Sweden’s top division.

We’ll see in due course whether Kapanen will be the last “success story” of the Trevor Timmins era… or not.

Filip Mesar | Latest ranking: 14th

Maybe Mesar just wasn’t physically ready for the AHL, and there are doubts about his character, but we’ll hope that Pascal Vincent reserves a bigger place in his heart for him than Jean-François Houle has over the past two years…

Without breaking anything in Kitchener during this period, we were able to see once again at the last CMJ that Mesar remains a talented forward with great vision who will undoubtedly benefit from playing with better players. He’s an excellent passer at junior level, as evidenced by his latest OHL series with 15 assists in 10 games. He also has an excellent wrist shot, which he could use more of, especially when approaching the slot more often.

A role on the 3rd line is still possible in his case. As with Lehkonen and Ylonen before him, no one has dared to predict the Slovakian kid’s rapid arrival in the NHL.

That said, and at the risk of repeating myself, he wouldn’t have been my 26th choice in 2022…

Florian Xhekaj | Last ranking : none

With a good training camp and a quick adaptation to professional hockey, Florian Xhekaj could soon become a popular player in Laval, where he finished the season.

With his robust play and ability to score goals around the net in Ontario junior, Xhekaj could well be ready for the next step.

That said, we wouldn’t dare predict instant success in the pros when he can no longer take advantage of his physical attributes so easily.

In addition to improving his mobility and agility, he’ll have to hone his craft in close quarters with opposing goalkeepers, while being besieged by larger, more experienced defenders. But if he can make this his territory, he could one day be worth his weight in gold at the bottom of the Habs line-up.

Showing considerable potential overall (great range, good shot, decent hands), the “little brother” left a fine calling card at the last development camp, and it will be interesting to keep a close eye on Nick Bobrov’s “unicorn” come September.

Florian Xhekaj finds the back of the net again!

7 – 1#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/e4xIn3vhsL

– Montreal Canadiens (@CanadiensMTL) July 5, 2024

Considering his rarity – he seems to have passed Alex Tuch in the minds of many – Florian Xhekaj is something of an X-factor in the Habs’ bank of prospects, and many no doubt dream of one day seeing him score big playoff goals for the Flanelle.

Not impossible, but as the saying goes, there’s still a long way to go from the Cup to the Hare…

Conclusion

What do you think? No Farrell, Heineman or Trudeau? What about Konyushkov?

No way!

With a contract in his pocket until 2026 in the KHL, a lot of water will have to flow under the bridge before we see the end of Bogdan’s nose on this side of the Atlantic… His very theoretical importance currently lies in the depth he brings to the right side of the defense from a long-term perspective, nothing more. After a stunning start to the season, he plateaued last year. The “new Norlinder”…

Trudeau was ranked 14th after a good camp last year, but unfortunately we didn’t see any progression in his game in Laval following his dismissal in the fall. Besides, he’s now 8th among left-handed backs in Montreal’s hierarchy… Barring an incredible explosion, it’s going to take some movement on the left, or he’ll have to be the one to move if he wants to give himself a better chance of reaching the NHL one day…

Farrell, 23 next November, was simply ordinary and unable to assert himself on a consistent basis in Laval. Too many glaring deficiencies and really not enough dominant qualities for the little American.

Heineman, on the other hand, possesses a number of interesting tools and is absolutely sublime in warm-up periods with his receiving shot. The problem is that, unfortunately, he doesn’t have much more sense of the game than my mother-in-law has sharp knives in her kitchen!

So there you have it,we’ll soon be reconnecting with positions 15 to 13!

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