Sony believes the PlayStation 5 is now in the “latter half of its life cycle.”
That’s according to Sony’s senior vice president Naomi Matsuoka, who made the comments following the company’s revision of how many PS5s it expects to sell during the current financial year (down from 25 million to 21 million) as well as Sony’s most recent earnings report and a weaker than expected holiday 2023 quarter. So obviously the question now is: When can we expect the PlayStation 6?
Before diving into that question, I feel like I should first ask what is going on with this console generation? Never mind what’s happening over on the Xbox side of things, and that Nintendo is now so firmly marching to the beat of its own drum that it no longer aligns with either Sony or Microsoft when it comes to console launches. But where has the time gone?
2023 felt like the first truly normal year for this current game generation, with PlayStation 5s readily available after two years of severe shortages and scalping. The worldwide pandemic wreaking havoc on the global supply chain gave both PlayStation 5s and Xbox Series X|S a false start for sure. Nevertheless, it seemed that as far as product launches go, 2023 was the first year in the rest of our Gen 9 lives, and there was a tsunami of great games to go along with it. Fast-forward a couple of months and now suddenly we’re effectively halfway through Gen 9? Time didn’t just fly, it jumped through hyperspace.
“With that logic, we believe Sony is looking to extend PS5’s life cycle, with PS6 most likely to launch in 2028.”
We’re now four years into the PlayStation 5 and there’s a strong precedent which indicates the PlayStation 6 will be targeting a 2027 launch. Why? Because that’s about as much time as it took for the previous three generations of consoles. The PlayStation 2 was released in 2000 and was followed six years later by the PlayStation 3. The PS3 was released in 2006 and was followed seven years later by the PlayStation 4. The PS4 was released in 2013 and was followed, you guessed it, seven years later by the PlayStation 5.
If it walks like seven years and quacks like seven years, chances are new PlayStations are released every seven or so years.
How much stock can we take in this trend though? Could this be the generation to eschew this historical precedent? Well, unfortunately, without having a first-hand look at PlayStation’s internal release schedule, patterns and historical precedent are what we’re left with.
“We are expecting the PS5 Pro to be released in late 2024 — a year later than the equivalent PS4 Pro in its lifecycle,” Omdia senior analyst George Jijiashvili tells IGN. “With that logic, we believe Sony is looking to extend PS5’s life cycle, with PS6 most likely to launch in 2028.”
However, Jijiashvili acknowledges that depending on demand, which Sony themselves admit is weakening, “Sony may decide to pull the PS6 launch forward.”
One note he adds is that “the console cycle as we know it has become increasingly blurred; PS4 is still punching above its weight due to its healthy active installed base.” Furthermore, even if the PS6 launches in 2027, Jijiashvili expects the PS5 to continue to have “several years left in it post-PS6 launch,” indicating the trend of releasing major games like God of War and Horizon Forbidden West across two generations of consoles (which was accelerated by the PS4 to PS5 handoff) will likely continue.
“I do have PlayStation 6 in my forecast for 2027. But that’s just because this has been the established cadence,” NPD’s Mat Piscatella tells IGN over email. “Could it be later? Sure. Could it be sooner? Yep. But, since I have no better information to go on, and because the track record has been established, 2027 is where I have it.”
That we’re halfway through the PS5’s life cycle wouldn’t be too alarming if it weren’t for the second Sony statement that there will be no first-party content released in the financial year 2024. Meaning the likely sequels to Ghost of Tsushima, Horizon Forbidden West, or games like Wolverine will not be seen until next year after March 2025 (The fiscal year is typically from March to March). If we’re still thinking of 2027 as a potential release year for the PS6, that leaves just three years left of dedicated PS5 support before moving to the next console.
And so, finally, where does that leave us? Well, Immortality director Sam Barlow hit the nail on the head when he tweeted, “Lol, I just got one. In terms of the games it feels like this generation hasn’t really got started yet??”
Lol I just got one. In terms of the games it feels like this generation hasn’t really got started yet?? https://t.co/egnGqJtYZ4
— Sam Barlow 🔥 IMMORTALITY (@mrsambarlow) February 14, 2024
My gut tells me that we’re in a bit of uncharted territory right now. Console makers certainly weren’t planning around a global pandemic, but beyond that it’s been a weird generation so far with lots of great games coming to both PS5 and PS4. The Switch has now thrived across two console generations, and Xbox is planning on expanding beyond the borders of its own hardware, albeit not as dramatically as some previously expected.
Normally we’d begin hearing talks of the next-generation about two years before the official launch, but Xbox’s Sarah Bond kickstarted those talks early in the company’s Update on the Business podcast. And Sony has also vaguely touched on it with Matsuoka’s comments about entering the latter half of the PS5’s life cycle.
If you haven’t hopped onto this generation of consoles yet and purchased a PS5, well, if you want my two cents, 2027 isn’t as far away as you think.
Matt T.M. Kim is IGN’s Senior Features Editor. You can reach him @lawoftd.
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