The NBA has a reputation as the most predictable league in sports. That’s not entirely unfair. In the 43 years from 1980 to 2023, only 14 different franchises have won the league championship.
It’s possible that’s changing now. The NBA has seen five different champions in the last five years, something that hasn’t happened since 1975-1980, when the league crowned six different champions in six years. The 2023 NBA Playoffs were perhaps the greatest example of a less predictable NBA landscape: a No. 7 seed (the Los Angeles Lakers) reached the Western Conference Finals, and a No. 8 seed (the Miami Heat) made the NBA Finals.
At the start of a new season, we’re ready to make some bold predictions. Like, actually bold. This isn’t the place for a “the Celtics finish with the best record in the NBA” prediction, because everyone is saying that right now. Here are seven predictions that probably qualify as a “hot take” at the beginning of year.
The Thunder make the Western Conference Finals
The Thunder’s jump from 24 wins to 40 wins made them one of the NBA’s most pleasant surprises last year. OKC still has another leap in there. With Chet Holmgren finally debuting in the lineup this year, the Thunder have the right mix of players to not just make the playoffs, but go on a deep run.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a certified superstar as a shot-creator in the backcourt. Holmgren will be act as the 7-foot connective tissue offensively while also putting a lid on the rim as a shot blocker. Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey are supersized secondary creators who are still getting better and better. The Thunder have continued to add dependable role players around their core pieces, and they have plenty of ammo to add another piece at the trade deadline.
The Thunder lineup just feels perfect for the switch-heavy style of playoff basketball. With Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren looking like they’re already primed to play starring roles, I wouldn’t be shocked if OKC won two series in the NBA Playoffs to reach the Western Conference Finals.
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Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Victor Wembanyama is named an All-Star and All-Defense
There hasn’t been a rookie All-Star in the NBA since Blake Griffin in 2010-2011 … but even that one comes with an asterisk, because Griffin was actually in his second year after suffering a season-ending injury shortly after he was drafted. The last true rookie to be named an All-Star was, fittingly, Tim Duncan in 1997-1998. Duncan was also named Second-Team All-Defense as a rookie. We’ll predict Victor Wembanyama does the same.
The No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Wemby is accustomed to accolades after being named MVP of the top French pro league at 19 years old. His length and athleticism has looked every bit as impactful on an NBA court during the preseason. Even if the Spurs don’t win a lot of games, Wembanyama will either lead the league in blocks or be very close, and that should propel him to All-Defense status while his scoring flashes push his All-Star case.
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Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Daryl Morey quits the 76ers
There simply isn’t a good way out of James Harden’s trade request for the Philadelphia 76ers. Top executive Daryl Morey won’t be able to get equal on-court value for the veteran guard with the Clippers as the only real suitor. Harden is no longer the superstar he was in his prime, but he proved he could still perform at an All-Star level during the regular season. Of course, Harden’s infamous postseason struggles again bubbled to the surface last season. The reality is that Philly likely wouldn’t be good enough to win the East even if he were engaged and ready to go this season.
The big question about Harden’s trade request is how it affects Joel Embiid. The reigning MVP knows the clock is ticking on his prime, and Philadelphia just doesn’t seem capable of putting a championship team around him in the near future. The bet here is that Morey will see the writing on the wall about Embiid’s own trade request and step down from his position. Morey isn’t really old enough to retire yet at 51 years old, but it’s hard to believe he’ll have the stomach for full teardown and rebuild once Embiid moves on.
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Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images
Zach LaVine starts the All-Star Game
There’s going to be at least two new All-Star starters in the Eastern Conference this season after Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were both sent to the West at last year’s trade deadline. The backcourt spots are relatively wide open entering the season with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum considered frontcourt players. Damian Lillard feels like a lock for one of the starting spots. Donovan Mitchell (an All-Star starter in the East last year) remains a strong candidate. Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton, and Jrue Holiday could make a run. Since we’re doing preseason hot takes here, I’ll take Zach LaVine to nab the other backcourt starting spot in the East next to Lillard.
LaVine had a slow start to last year as he recovered from offseason knee surgery, but the Bulls guard was as effective as ever once the calendar turned to Dec. He’s still an electric athlete at 28 years old, and he’s one of the league’s better three-point shooters, too. LaVine has been an All-Star twice before, but this could be the first year he emerges as a starter if he stays healthy. Only one problem: the Bulls will probably need to exceed middling expectations for LaVine to start the All-Star Game, and Chicago’s schedule feels front-loaded with difficult opponents. I think LaVine is in for a big season that establishes him as one of the best off-guards alive.
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Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images
Franz Wagner will be a first time All-Star
The Orlando Magic feel like they’re trying to replicate the Celtics with two jumbo scorers leading their rebuild in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero, as the former No. 1 overall draft pick and reigning Rookie of the Year, is generally considered to be the better of the two players, profiling as the Magic’s Jayson Tatum. Are we sure about that?
Wagner has already established himself as a good NBA player after averaging 18/4/4 on 59 percent true shooting as a 21-year-old in his second season last year. He’s coming off a great run with Germany in the FIBA World Cup, and looks ready to take another step. The spacing in Orlando around the two young stars isn’t doing either player any favors, but Wagner is so good as a shot-creator, off-ball cutter, and spot-up shooter that it might not matter. While Banchero still struggles to score efficiently, Wagner is further along in his development. He’s my pick for the Orlando youngster to make an All-Star leap this year.
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Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images
The Pacers will be the season’s biggest surprise
There’s always one team that comes out of nowhere to grab a high playoff seed at the end of the regular season. Two years ago, it was the Grizzlies shooting from 38 to 56 wins. Last season, it was the Sacramento Kings’ jump from 30 to 48 wins. If any team is going to make a similar jump this season, our money is on the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana has a star guard orchestrating the offense in Tyrese Haliburton, and he’s only getting better. Myles Turner is a dependable center who can stretch the floor and protect the rim. Bruce Brown comes over from the Nuggets to add point-of-attack defense and a connective skill set offensively. Buddy Hield is going to help this team keep its three-point rate high, while Andrew Nembhard should be ready to take another step after an excellent debut as a second-round rookie last year. Ben Mathurin, Jarace Walker, and Obi Toppin represent the type of emergent young talent teams need to take a huge leap up the standings.
With some turmoil in the East after Boston and Milwaukee, there’s room for a surprise playoff spoiler. We’ll go with the Pacers.
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Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
The Nuggets repeat as champions
Yes, this is the most lukewarm take of the day. The Nuggets ran through the playoffs with a 16-4 mark last year, and though they lost Bruce Brown in free agency, the rest of the core is back. All the key pieces here are either still in their prime or getting better. While it’s easy to be captivated by the flashy new additions made by the Bucks, Celtics, Suns, and Warriors, the league still runs through Nikola Jokic and Denver until further notice.
Denver has the best player in the world in Jokic. It has one of the best playoff performers alive in Jamal Murray. More than anything, Denver’s lineups just fit really well together, with complementary skill sets all over the court tied together by Jokic’s brilliance. No one has gone back-to-back in the NBA since Kevin Durant’s Warriors in 2017 and 2018, but the Nuggets have all the pieces to do it.
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