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Sunday’s game features the No. 1 and 2 stingiest scoring defenses in the league, with the Ravens allowing just 280 points in 2023 and the Chiefs giving up 294.
The last two AFC Championship games, each featuring the Chiefs, were won by three points.
Against that backdrop, the idea that oddsmakers have the Ravens as just four-point favorites is not that far-fetched.
Assuming the defenses play to their standard, there is no reason to believe we will suddenly see a massive blowout either way. Both quarterbacks are league MVPs, arguably the two best in the NFL. They have skill sets that allow them to bring teams back from the brink, score quickly and in big bunches, and keep games close.
The ability of the defenses to limit scoring means we will likely see our fair share of field goals, with the go-ahead score potentially coming off the foot of Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker.
Sure, one of the defenses could take a last-gasp effort and widen the score differential but three points feels like a safe bet given the talent on the field and a Chiefs roster closer to their own than what the Ravens encountered against Houston.
Prediction: Ravens win outright, do not cover
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