Donald Trump’s Chances of Beating Biden in Wisconsin, According to Polls

It remains to be seen if Donald Trump’s 2024 election hopes have been damaged amid reports he called the largest city in Wisconsin “horrible,” with polls currently suggesting he and President Joe Biden are tied in the key swing state.

The former president allegedly made disparaging remarks about Milwaukee during a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Trump, his campaign team, and several Republicans have denied that the former president called Milwaukee “horrible” and instead was referring to the crime rate in the Democratic city.

The fallout over the reported remarks could have potential major implications for the results of the 2024 Election between Trump and Biden.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, on May 1, 2024. Polls suggest Trump and President Joe Biden are tied in the key swing state.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Polls are seemingly split as to whether the president or his 2024 Republican rival are currently ahead in Wisconsin, a battleground state Biden won in 2020 by just 20,000 votes. The Badger State is one of the key swing states Trump will be hoping to flip in November as he seeks a return to the White House.

A survey by J.L. Partners of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin, released just days before reports of the former president’s comments about Milwaukee emerged, showed Trump and Biden were tied on 44 percent.

On June 4, a Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab poll of 2,068 adults in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin showed Biden was 2 percent ahead among all voters (40 percent to 38 percent) in Wisconsin. However, the president was trailing Trump by one-point among likely voters (40 percent to 41 percent).

Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU, said that neither Trump nor Biden have a “meaningful advantage” in any of the three battleground states with only a few months to go before November’s election.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey of 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states released late May showed Trump narrowly leading in Wisconsin (47 percent to 46 percent), as well as in Arizona (49-44 percent), Georgia (47-44 percent), North Carolina (49-42 percent) and Pennsylvania (48-46 percent).

A survey released in May by the Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, a Republican polling firm, and Democratic polling firm BSG also showed Trump beating Biden in all the key battleground states except for Wisconsin, where the two candidates are tied at 45 percent each.

Milwaukee’s Democratic Mayor Cavalier Johnson was one of those who suggested Trump’s alleged remarks about the city will damage him come November.

“For voters here in Milwaukee, I think the message is pretty clear. You’ve heard from the man himself,” Johnson said, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “Let’s all work to make sure that he doesn’t have the opportunity to live in another city that I think he probably thinks is horrible, too, and that’s Washington, D.C.”

Trump’s office has been contacted for comment via email.

Speaking to Fox News, Trump denied the claims first reported by Punchbowl News and CNN citing unnamed sources. Trump said it was “very clear” that he was talking about crime in Milwaukee being “horrible,” not the city itself, as well as alleged issues with voter fraud.

“I love Milwaukee, I have great friends in Milwaukee, but the crime numbers are terrible,” Trump said.

“But I was also referring to the election, the ballots, the way it went down, it was very bad in Milwaukee. Very, very bad. And the people understand that and they agree with me. Everybody agrees,” Trump added. “That was a fake story that came out.”

A similar sentiment was expressed by GOP congressman Derrick Van Orden, who represents Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district.

“Trump was specifically referring to the CRIME RATE in Milwaukee,” Van Orden posted on X, formerly Twitter, while sharing a photo of a Spectrum News article titled, “Milwaukee ranks third for violent crimes nationwide,” from May 2023.

The comments from Trump were allegedly made one month before Milwaukee is set to host the Republican National Convention, where Trump will be confirmed as the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee.