Maybe it all comes down to cream cheese. Specifically, a 50-pound bulk carton that accompanies the fantastic everything bagels at Goldberg’s in Westhampton Beach, NY. Last year, that delicious supply had jumped to around $180 a carton, from $100. Now it’s ‘only’ $150 – going in the right direction, but nowhere near where it used to be. On Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department will release its monthly consumer price index (CPI). Economists are predicting a 3.1% annual increase in prices for June – a figure that could be closer to 5% when taking out food and energy costs. That’s good news because it would be the slowest increase since late 2021. But it’s bad news because, like the delicious schmear applied abundantly at Goldberg’s, that’s still way too high. When a bagel with cream cheese doubles in cost the taste is tainted. So, ‘getting there, going in the right direction’ is the language we will hear about the state of inflation Wednesday morning. Sadly for the bulls, it’s the same-old story at this point, and not what the Federal Reserve wants to see. Cream cheese, like everything else we get when we go out to eat, go for pick-up or grab at the store is just way too high – but not as high as it was. But it’s not just about the cost of a block of cream cheese. It’s all the elements in our daily lives and, most importantly, it’s the huge cost of your home that’s not reflected in the CPI. Given that home prices have risen on average 40% since 2019, we know that ‘going in the right direction’ means nothing. Whether it’s a block of cream cheese going for $150 or a Toll Brothers (TOL) home selling for $1 million, with multiple bidders, we are all bewildered. We are tired of asking why inflation even exists. Is it the 13% of the world’s grain coming off the market because of Russia’s war in Ukraine? The round-ups of immigrants that started under Trump and continue under Biden? The departure of so many from the work force because they have learned from Covid-19 that they are long on money and short on time? The deaths of so many from the disease? The raw cost of commodities rallying for no fathomable reason, given the stalling Chinese economy? Or, is it the ingrained costs of the mystical supply chain? Maybe it’s all of a piece. We just don’t know. However, here’s what we do know. The Fed wants to get that cream cheese back to where it was in 2019, along with everything else – so all of these ‘going in the right direction’ statements mean nothing. These words tantalize us and give us comfort that a couple of Fed gasbags will side with those of us eager to see this interest-rate-hiking cycle come to an end. But we know that the central bank’s work is not done. I think Fed Chair Jerome Powell experiences what we do and he knows he’s the one person in a position to do something about it. So, what can be done? The Fed can play for time, betting that ‘going in the right direction’ ultimately takes us to where we need to be. Or, it can just keep pushing rates higher until we have enough people out of work that there are no more bidding wars anywhere for anything. Powell has no choice. The longer a block of cream cheese stays at $150, the more ingrained it gets. Fortunately for Powell, there are enough industries that will be hobbled, like the auto industry built on short-term rates, that he has a shot of lowering wages. Unfortunately, the labor unions are spoiling for a fight, which certainly is bad news for Powell. Can you imagine that we’re back to class warfare? Making things worse, the states all at once are finally beginning to dole out the money from three gigantic federal infrastructure bills. The result: The airplane won’t crash, and it won’t land gently. It seems it will just keep going and going and going, until it runs out of fuel, who knows when. That’s the dilemma we all find ourselves in. It’s just not coming together. This whole inflation exercise is simply a parlor game that sends money towards the “Magnificent Seven” and its acolytes. I wish the rally would broaden beyond the tech sector just like you do. But the bulls will have to get past what will most likely be a ‘bad’ CPI number on Wednesday. Layer on the beginning of earnings season and you have a suboptimal situation that awaits us, until the market becomes oversold or we discover a magic elixir that lowers inflation. I don’t know of one. Do you? Does Powell? Let’s just go for oversold. It’s an admittedly gloomy situation, one so off-putting we’ll have no new stock selection at the Club’s Monthly Meeting this week. But we don’t have to play for time. We can just wait. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. 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Bagel and Cream Cheese
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Maybe it all comes down to cream cheese. Specifically, a 50-pound bulk carton that accompanies the fantastic everything bagels at Goldberg’s in Westhampton Beach, NY.
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