If I Had an Oscar Ballot 2024: ‘American Fiction’ and ‘Across the Spider-Verse’ for Best Picture; Colman Domingo and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor Should Win for Acting

MGM / Netflix / Well-Go USA / Sony Pictures / Neon

Awards Circuit Column: It’s decision time.

After months of campaigning, festivalgoing, splashy premieres, magazine profiles and morning-show appearances, Academy voters will finally get their ballots this week (Thursday, Jan. 11). Hopefully, the organization’s nearly 10,000 members did their homework and watched as many of 2023’s offerings as possible.

It’s hard to distill an entire year of cinema — particularly one overflowing with so much great work — into a mere five (or, in the case of best picture, 10) achievements. I love many of the films that the Academy will almost certainly nominate for top prizes, such as Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.” And who could resist the phenomenon of Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” forever linked in pop culture history as “Barbenheimer.”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

But for me, nothing can beat Cord Jefferson’s audacious debut, “American Fiction,” which boasted sharp writing, an invigorating ensemble and smart social satire. Jefferson is the real deal, a filmmaker whose boundless future I cannot wait to watch unfold. I can only hope the Academy recognizes his brilliance.

Then there’s Ava DuVernay’s emotionally stirring “Origin,” which ranks as the finest directorial achievement of her career. If I controlled the Oscars, DuVernay would be running away with the directing prize, alongside her lead actress, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

As for lead actor, there’s an embarrassment of riches, topped by Colman Domingo’s searing work as civil rights leader Bayard Rustin in “Rustin.” While studios campaign for their stars in specific categories, Oscar voters can make their own decisions about which roles qualify as leading ones and which are supporting. For me, “BlackBerry’s” Glenn Howerton and the “May December” duo of Charles Melton and Julianne Moore feel better suited for lead recognition than for the supporting categories in which they are likely to appear if they score a nod. At the same time, Lily Gladstone, unforgettable in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Laurie Metcalf, under-heralded for “Somewhere in Queens,” seem better fits for supporting salutes.

John Magaro’s heartbreaking and understated turn in Celine Song’s “Past Lives” has been unjustly ignored this season, despite the film being a sure-fire best picture contender. A supporting actor lineup without the journeyman actor just feels wrong.

Here’s what my Oscar ballot would look like if I were a voter.

The full list is below.

Best Picture

Image Credit: MGM

“American Fiction” (MGM)
Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

“Origin” (Neon)
Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes

“Monster” (Well Go USA)
Megumi Banse, Minami Ichikawa, Taichi Itô, Ryo Ota, Hijiri Taguchi, Kiyoshi Taguchi, Hajime Ushioda, Kenji Yamada, Tatsumi Yoda

“Robot Dreams” (Neon)
Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, Sandra Tapia Díaz, Angel Durández

“American Symphony” (Netflix)
Matthew Heineman (director, producer), Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun

“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

“The Iron Claw” (A24)
Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross

“Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
Toshio Suzuki

Winner: “American Fiction”

Runner Up: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios); “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon); “Beyond Utopia” (Roadside Attractions); “BlackBerry” (IFC Films); “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures); “The Holdovers” (Focus Features); “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures); “May December” (Netflix); “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment); “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures); “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Director

Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima / Neon

Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson – “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Ava DuVernay – “Origin” (Neon)

Cord Jefferson – “American Fiction” (MGM)

Hirokazu Kore-eda – “Monster” (Well-Go USA)

Celine Song – “Past Lives” (A24)

Winner: Ava DuVernay, “Origin”

Runner Up: Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Sean Durkin — “The Iron Claw” (A24); Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest” (A24); Matthew Heineman, “American Symphony” (Netflix); Hayao Miyazaki, “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids); Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

Actor

Colman Domingo – “Rustin” (Netflix)

Glenn Howerton — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

Charles Melton – “May December” (Netflix)

Andrew Scott – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

Jeffrey Wright – “American Fiction” (MGM)

Winner: Colman Domingo, “Rustin”

Runner Up: Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Bradley Cooper, “Maestro” (Netflix); Michael Fassbender, “The Killer” (Netflix); Jamie Foxx, “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios); Jesse Garcia, “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures); Soya Kurokawa, “Monster” (Well Go USA); Tee Yoo, “Past Lives” (A24)

Actress

Image Credit: Neon

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – “Origin” (Neon)

Greta Lee – “Past Lives” (A24)

Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix)

Teyana Taylor – “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

Emma Stone – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Winner: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Origin”

Runner Up: Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Jessica Chastain, “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment); Abby Ryder Fortson, “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate); Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon); Trace Lysette, “Monica” (IFC Films); Natalie Portman, “May December” (Netflix);

Supporting Actor

Image Credit: Jon Pack

Jamie Bell – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

Sterling K. Brown – “American Fiction” (MGM)

Ryan Gosling – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

Milo Machado Graner – “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

John Magaro – “Past Lives” (A24)

Winner: John Magaro, “Past Lives”

Runner Up: Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Robert DeNiro, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures); Holt McCallany, “The Iron Claw” (A24); Chris Messina, “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios); Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures); Peter Sarsgaard, “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)