NFL Playoff Picture Guide: Postseason-Clinching Scenarios for Week 18 Games

The NFL’s playoff picture remains murky going into Week 18.

A record-tying 20 teams are still in contention for a trip to the Super Bowl heading into the final week of the regular season. Nine franchises have already clinched a postseason appearance, while five other bids, including four division titles, remain unclaimed. So plenty will be at stake around the league in what could be a chaotic conclusion to the campaign. Week 18 kicks off with two Saturday games and wraps up with a Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins prime-time battle for the AFC East on Sunday Night Football.

Before the games begin, here’s a glimpse at the current standings, plus playoff scenarios for every team still alive in the postseason race.

The NFL logo on the field is pictured before the game between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium on December 3, 2023, in Nashville, Tennessee. The NFL playoff picture is still relatively murky heading into Week 18.
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/Getty Images

NFL Playoff Picture Entering Week 18

The No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC are already locked up.

The Baltimore Ravens (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4), winners of the AFC North and NFC West, will both receive first-round playoff byes and home-field advantage in the postseason as the top teams in their respective conferences.

As things currently sit in the AFC, the other division leaders and Nos. 2-4 seeds are the Dolphins (11-5), Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) and Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7). The conference’s three Wild Card spots are occupied by the Cleveland Browns (11-5), Buffalo Bills (10-6) and Indianapolis Colts (9-7). And the Houston Texans (9-7) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) are the two AFC teams on the outside looking in that still have playoff hopes.

Along with Baltimore, the Dolphins, Chiefs and Browns have also sealed AFC postseason berths. Just in different ways. Kansas City won the AFC West last weekend, while Miami is in but doesn’t have a division crown yet; the Dolphins can clinch the East on Sunday night. The Browns are married to the No. 5 seed, the top Wild Card spot, since the Ravens won the division.

In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys (11-5), Detroit Lions (11-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) are the three other division leaders entering Week 18. The Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), Los Angeles Rams (9-7) and Green Bay Packers (8-8) are in Wild Card territory. Four teams—the Seattle Seahawks (8-8), New Orleans Saints (8-8), Minnesota Vikings (7-9) and Atlanta Falcons (7-9) — are the only other squads remaining in the NFC hunt.

Detroit has already clinched the NFC North title. The Cowboys, Eagles and Rams (firmly a Wild Card team) will make playoff appearances regardless of what happens this weekend.

AFC, NFC Playoff-Clinching Scenarios

The NFC East, NFC South, AFC East and AFC South are still up for grabs this weekend, as are two AFC Wild Card spots and the final NFC opening. And things could get tricky when determining which teams are in and which are out. The NFL released paths to clinching playoff berths for various squads earlier this week.

Here’s a team-by-team look at postseason scenarios for franchises still in the hunt.

Bills

Buffalo plays in Miami against the Dolphins at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Bills will clinch the AFC East title with a win. Sean McDermott’s team can also clinch a playoff berth with:

Bills tie ORSteelers loss or tie ORJaguars loss or tie ORTexans-Colts tie

Texans

Houston squares off with the AFC South rival Colts at 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Texans will clinch the division with:

Texans win + Jaguars loss or tie

The Texans would also clinch a playoff berth with;

Texans win ORTexans tie + Jaguars loss + Steelers loss or tie.

Colts

Similar stakes will be on the line on the Indianapolis sideline when the Colts host the Texans on Saturday night. Indianapolis will clinch the AFC South with:

Colts win + Jaguars loss or tie ORColts tie + Jaguars loss

The Colts would also clinch a playoff berth with:

Colts win ORColts tie + Steelers loss or tie

Jaguars

The AFC South is in Jacksonville’s hands when the Jaguars play at the Tennessee Titans at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Jags clinch the division with:

Jaguars win ORJaguars tie + Colts-Texans tie

Jacksonville is also into the playoffs with:

Jaguars tie + Steelers loss or tie ORSteelers loss + Broncos loss or tie + Texans-Colts doesn’t end in a tie

Dolphins

Miami will move safely along into the postseason no matter the results of Sunday night’s matchup with the Bills. But winning the division is the preferred route. The Dolphins have already locked up a playoff spot, but will win the AFC East, and secure a home playoff game, with:

Dolphins win or tie

Steelers

Pittsburgh plays the Ravens on the road this week, but may be in luck. Baltimore will likely rest some of its starters to close out the regular season since it has already clinched the top seed. Entering that 4:30 p.m. ET AFC North matchup on Saturday, the Steelers can move on to the postseason with:

Steelers win + Bills loss ORSteelers win + Jaguars loss or tie ORSteelers win + Texans-Colts tie ORSteelers win + Jaguars loss + Texans-Colts doesn’t end in a tie ORJaguars loss + Broncos win + Texans-Colts doesn’t end in a tie

Falcons

Atlanta plays in New Orleans against the Saints at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. And the Falcons’ playoff hopes ride on a relatively straightforward scenario. The team will clinch the NFC South division with:

Falcons win + Bucs loss

Cowboys

Dallas travels to Washington to play the 4-12 Commanders at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Cowboys are already locked into the playoffs, but will clinch the NFC East with:

Cowboys win ORCowboys tie + Eagles tie OREagles loss

Packers

Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. home game against the Chicago Bears (7-9) isn’t a win-or-go home game for the Packers, but losing to the NFC North foe would complicate things. The Packers clinch a playoff berth with:

Packers win ORPackers tie + Seahawks loss or tie + Saints loss or tie ORPackers tie + Seahawks loss + Bucs loss ORPackers tie + Seahawks tie + Bucs loss or tie ORVikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Bucs loss ORVikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Saints loss

Vikings

The second half of the 2023 season has been a whirlwind for the Vikings. Three different quarterbacks have started in Kirk Cousins’ absence. But no matter which signal-caller takes the field against the Lions in Detroit at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Minnesota faces a tough path to the postseason. The Vikings would clinch a playoff berth with:

Vikings win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Bucs loss ORVikings win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss

Saints

New Orleans’ playoff path has a few alternative routes compared to its Sunday opponent. While the Falcons are in with a win and Bucs loss, the Saints can clinch the NFC South with:

Saints win + Bucs loss or tie ORSaints tie + Bucs loss

The Saints also clinch a playoff berth with:

Saints win + Seahawks loss or tie + Packers loss or tie ORSaints tie + Seahawks loss + Packers loss

Eagles

The NFC, at one time, seemed like it would go through Philadelphia this postseason. Well, not anymore. The Eagles have lost four of their last five games and close out the regular season at the 5-11 New York Giants (4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday). While Philly’s playoff trip is already clinched, it would win the NFC East title with:

Eagles win + Cowboys loss or tie OREagles tie + Dallas loss

Seahawks

Seattle plays at the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Seahawks clinch would clinch a playoff berth with:

Seahawks win + Packers loss or tie ORSeahawks tie + Packers loss + Bucs loss or tie ORSeahawks tie + Packers loss + Saints loss or tie

Buccaneers

The Bucs control their own playoff destiny on the road against the NFL-worst Carolina Panthers (2-14) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. Tampa Bay will clinch the NFC South title with:

Bucs win ORBucs tie + Saints loss or tie

Baker Mayfield and company would also clinch a playoff berth with:

Bucs tie + Seahawks loss + Packers loss or tie.

NFL Playoff Probabilities

Among NFC teams that have yet to clinch a playoff spot, the Bucs (66 percent) have the best chance to reach the postseason entering Week 18, according to data released by the league via NFL Next Gen Stats. Behind the Buccaneers are the Packers (64 percent), Saints (29 percent), Seahawks (25 percent), Falcons (13 percent) and Vikings (4 percent).

In the AFC, the Bills (86 percent) lead the way among teams that haven’t clinched yet, ahead of the Jaguars (70 percent), Colts (55 percent), Texans (45 percent) and Steelers (44 percent).