Alexandre Pantoja is coming home.
When Pantoja steps into the octagon for Saturday’s UFC 301 main event in Rio de Janeiro, he’ll be the first Brazilian champion to defend their title in their home country since Amanda Nunes fought Raquel Pennington in May 2018. That was a triumphant night for Nunes, and Pantoja’s team surely expects the same, but is surprise challenger Steve Erceg set to play the ultimate spoiler?
MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Jed Meshew, and Mike Heck gather at the roundtable to discuss the ripples an Erceg win could create in the UFC timeline, plus what else to look for on a low-key pay-per-view offering.
1. Where would a Steve Erceg title win rank among the most unlikely runs to a belt?
Meshew: First off, who the (Mike) Heck is Steve Erceg? I know a Vincenzo Erceg, UFC flyweight contender and the pride of Western Australia, but I’ve never heard of this Steve fellow. And let’s be honest, a “Steve” Erceg could never win a title. Vincenzo Erceg — or “Vinnie Cigs” as the kids know him — now that man is a very probable champion due to the laws of nominative determinism.
Second, because I’m a capital-J Journalist, I crunched the numbers to give you an exact answer. In the modern UFC, four fighters have managed to win a title in their first four fights in the promotion, not including fighters who won inaugural titles (think Carla Esparza off The Ultimate Fighter or Ronda Rousey being declared UFC champion from Strikeforce): Zhang Weili, Brock Lesnar, Jiri Prochazka, and Alex Pereira. And it’s pretty safe to say looking at that list, Vinnie is the most unlikely possible champion.
Brock had almost no MMA experience but he was the biggest star in the promotion, so his path to the title was extremely likely. Similar for Pereira who had such a built-in story with then-champion Israel Adesanya that everyone knew it would happen. Prochazka and Zhang are different stories in that they didn’t enter with a built-in ticket to a title shot, but both were already among the best in the world in their weight classes and had substantial support behind them. None of this is true for Erceg.
Until Erceg made his UFC debut 10 months ago, a vast majority of the MMA world didn’t know who he was. Even after he beat David Dvorak to earn a top 15 ranking, most people still didn’t. Honestly, I’m not sure people know who he is now. But if he pulls this off on Saturday, the man will be an overnight sensation 10 months in the making.
Lee: It would be a stunner. But five years down the road, it might not be with the benefit of hindsight.
Erceg debuted in the UFC with little fanfare at UFC 289 in June 2023, stepping in on short notice for Matt Schnell at UFC 289 before KO’ing Schnell nine months later (in between was a decision win over Alessandro Costa I’m betting few remember). “Astro Boy” is as unassuming a fighter as you’ll find, and even as he’s continued to build a 12-fight win streak, our eyes can’t quite believe what we’re seeing.
Great addition to the flyweight roster? Sure. UFC title contender? Where did that come from?
But the UFC needed a Brazilian champion to headline its return to Rio and Alexandre Pantoja needed a challenger who he hadn’t already beaten multiple times, so in steps Vinnie Cigs. Pantoja is understandably a comfortable favorite heading into his second title defense, holding wins over pretty much every notable flyweight in the top 10. So if Erceg is being sent out as a sacrificial lamb for the sake of a home crowd pop, then so be it.
I just think there’s a good chance Erceg is the real deal. By that I mean, not only could Erceg pull off the upset, he might rattle off a few title defenses of his own. So I’m cheating and leaving this answer open for now, because we might end up looking back at this incredible capper to Erceg’s first four UFC fights and realizing it was only the beginning.
Heck: It would have to be pretty high up there, right? Matt Serra getting there off of a reality show and then beating Georges St-Pierre in the biggest upset of all-time has to take the No. 1 spot, but good ol’ Vinnie Cigs could certainly find his face on the Mt. Rushmore of unlikely UFC title runs.
As I’ve said a million times on various shows, meritocracy doesn’t matter in the UFC — at least, for the most part — but availability can oftentimes be your best friend. Steve Erceg has done everything he’s needed to do. He’s beaten ranked opponents and has finished fights in impressive fashion, plus he did so with impeccable timing due to the fact that Pantoja needed a dance partner.
While this may be high up on the unlikely runs list now, something tells me a future roundtable — maybe even later this year — will have a similar question. Why? Because availability is your best friend.
2. Which Brazilian fighter will have the biggest moment?
Heck: This is a tough question with so many on the card, and while the easy answer is Pantoja, the vibes continue to tell me we could be in for a shocking conclusion at UFC 301. So, I’ll take the next chalky answer and go with “The King of Rio.”
When Run This Town hits the speakers, the arena will come unglued. And while Jonathan “The Silence Behind the Violence” Martinez is a solid talent, Jose Aldo has made his hay in defeating fighters who have an incredible leg kicking game. Not only is he known as The King of Rio, he’s the King of the Legkickers as well. I believe he gets his hand raised in, what will likely be, his final UFC fight.
Meshew: The only possible answer for this is Jose Aldo.
Pantoja may be headlining the card, but this whole ships sinks without Aldo there to juice the crowd up. To say Aldo is beloved in Rio is like saying Conor McGregor is “kind of popular” or Jon Jones is “a little scared” of Tom Aspinall — it understates the point to absurdity.
To steal a phrase from Paddy Pimblett, win or lose, Aldo is “going to blow the roof off the gaffe!” And good god willing, if he actually wins — perhaps in highlight-reel fashion — then he can jump the fence and be paraded around Farmasi Arena on the shoulders of his countrymen. Finally, the storybook ending one of the true all-time greats deserves.
Lee: Aldo has the chance to do something special, but there’s a part of me that is always going to be hesitant to get too excited about a fighter returning from a supposed retirement strictly for business reasons. (Aldo is completing the last fight of his UFC deal so he’s free to potentially go back to boxing.) So I’ll go in a different direction here.
If Aldo is the hero most fans in the building will be cheering for, the majority of jeers will be aimed at Ihor Potieria, a.k.a. “The Shogun Slayer.” Let’s not forget the UFC’s most recent visit to Rio didn’t just end on the down note of Jamahal Hill beating Glover Teixeira. Before that, the illustrious career of Mauricio Rua came to a harsh end when Potieria finished him with strikes in a preliminary bout and then proceeded to celebrate in a manner that didn’t endear him to the local crowd.
You can bet the chants of uh vai morrer will be loud and clear when Potieria makes the walkout for his fight with Michel Pereira, to the point that they may want to beef up security. Because make no mistake about it, Pereira is out to avenge Shogun, and if he doesn’t get it done in the cage, it could get ugly in these streets.
Pereira is the consummate showman and if he can style his way to a knockout of Potieria, he’ll be the most celebrated Brazilian on the card, even if Pantoja and Aldo are triumphant.
3. What is your sleeper storyline for UFC 301?
Lee: Now that I’ve hinted at a best-case scenario where the top Brazilian names on the card all author memorable moments, let’s look at the flip side: What if this is UFC 283 all over again?
I’ve already mentioned the Shogun letdown from the January 2023 event (and hopefully will never mention it again after this week), but don’t forget that night also ended with beloved champions Glover Teixeira and Deiveson Figueiredo losing their championships in humbling fashion. To say those disappointments cast a pall over that show would be an understatement.
Can Rio take another hit like that? The city will always welcome the UFC with open arms, but it will be a harder sell in the future if Pantoja’s overlooked title fight ends in a loss and if Martinez spoils Aldo’s return. Anthony Smith stifling Vitor Petrino? Potieria rubbing another win in the fans’ faces? Paul Craig handing Caio Borralho his first UFC loss? It’s all in play.
A number of Brazilian stars were already unable to compete on this card thanks to Dana White and co. stacking UFC 299 and UFC 300, so fans in this MMA hotbed are likely already feeling a little cold. If they don’t see a few favorites get their hand raised, White may want to wait a couple of years before coming back.
Heck: I’m sure people know where I’m going here, and you would be right. As usual, these questions usually come down to, “Where is the who-is-more-for-real fight on the card?” And for me, it’s the lightweight bout between 26-year-old up-and-comers Elves Brener and Myktybek Orolbai.
Lightweights, am I right?
This fight absolutely rules. Both of these guys have tremendous upside, and they are finishing machines. Brener had a strong case for MMA Fighting’s 2023 Rookie of the Year award after going 3-0 in 2023. He started with a big upset of Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 284 in his octagon debut, then added two big knockouts against Kaynan Kruschewsky and — in a super impressive win — Guram Kutateladze. This guy is really good, but he’s about to get a big-time test against a guy the hardcore MMA fans have been waiting for to get his shot.
Orolbai returns to his preferred weight class, but he has the potential do damage at welterweight, as shown by his short-notice UFC debut neck crank submission of Uros Medic. Orolbai has tremendous grappling chops, but he also hits like an absolute truck, and there’s a mystique and aura about him that says, “He just might be that guy.” We’ll certainly find out on Saturday in this fantastically matched preliminary bout.
Meshew: You want a sleeper storyline? I’ll give you a sleeper storyline. I’ll go so deep of a sleeper we’re talking Rip Van Winkle comatose here: Is Karolina Kowalkiewicz fighting for a title shot?
“What?!” you say. “That’s ridiculous!” Is it? Do you know who currently has the longest winning streak in the UFC strawweight division (other than Tatiana Suarez, whose streak has a four-year gap in it)? That’s right, Kowalkiewicz! She’s tied with champion Zhang Weili at four. And while nobody is clamoring for her to a get a title shot, the fact of the matter is that Kowalkiewicz is a former title challenger, a decent name in the division, and somebody has to fight Zhang next.
Suarez is the obvious next contender at 115 pounds, but she is coming off another injury and banking on her to make it to any fight is a fool’s errand. So who else is in the conversation? Joanna Jedrzejczyk retired, Rose Namajunas jumped up in weight, and Zhang has already beaten most of the other top contenders. Mackenzie Dern could make sense but she can’t seem to win fights when it counts, and the next great hope, Loopy Godinez, just lost.
That leaves Virna Jandiroba as the only other real option, and if something happens to her — it’s insane but true — Kowalkiewicz on five wins is suddenly a very viable option.
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