MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 53.
UFC on ESPN 53 (ESPN/ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Last event’s results: 3-2-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 19-16-2
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Fernando Padilla (-170) vs. Luis Pajuelo (+138)
Kicking off the main card is a featherweight matchup between Fernando Padilla and Luis Pajuelo.
Considering how these two stack up stylistically, I can see why the matchmakers chose this fight to set the tone for the night. Both men are strikers who love to get down in the pocket, but Padilla’s slight length and experience edge is likely why he’s favored here.
I could see Padilla’s knees and straight punches having some play in this fight, especially if he’s able to demonstrate improvements to his footwork and defense. However, I ultimately suspect that Pajuelo’s propensity to work the body and legs will pay dividends on Padilla given the success that Kyle Nelson had attacking those areas last September.
It’s a bit of a contrarian pick considering the toughness of Padilla, but I’ll take Pajuelo to produce a second-round stoppage with a combination of calf kicks and liver shots.
Billy Quarantillo (-120) vs. Youssef Zalal (+100)
Serving as another solid offering at featherweight is an impromptu fight between Billy Quarantillo and Youssef Zalal.
Originally slated to face Gabriel Miranda, Quarantillo will instead welcome Zalal back to the UFC.
Although Zalal was cut after drawing with Da’Mon Blackshear back in 2022, the Factory-X product has since accrued some wins on the regional scene to earn himself another shot in the big show.
I’m not sure if Zalal will continue to campaign at featherweight after this short-notice appearance, but the 27-year-old has some solid tools that should serve him well in this fight. Aside from having knees and head kicks that will be live given his opponent’s propensity to dip and slip, Zalal will also be one of the few fighters who can match Quarantillo’s vaunted third-round ferocity.
That said, I still believe that Quarantillo is the more skilled (as well as the more prepared) fighter in this spot.
Couple that with the fact that the small cage will likely encourage the exchanges and tie-ups that Quarantillo thrives in, and I’ll take him to best Zalal by unanimous decision.
Payton Talbott (-144) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+118)
In a battle of bantamweight prospects, Payton Talbott will take on Cameron Saaiman.
Although Saaiman has an edge in UFC experience, I find myself leaning toward Talbott.
Saaiman should get off to a great start given both his aggression and Talbott’s propensity for slow starts. That said, if Talbott can successfully weather the early storm, then I see his dynamic attacks and improvisational instincts allowing him to capitalize on Saaiman’s mistakes down the stretch.
Add in the fact that Saaiman seems to have a habit of ducking into knees, and I’ll take Talbott to pull out another flying knee knockout in Round 2.
Edmen Shahbazyan (-205) vs. A.J. Dobson (+164)
Filling out the main card is an impromptu middleweight matchup between Edmen Shahbazyan and A.J. Dobson.
Initially slated to face Dusko Todorovic, Shahbazyan will instead meet fellow Contender Series standout Dobson.
Even though Dobson appears to have serviceable wrestling and staying power, I’m not sure it will be enough to overcome the more prepared Shahbazyan.
Not only is Shahbazyan the more dynamic and aggressive fighter, but Dobson has struggled to maintain convincing volume and striking offense in his fights (which is probably why the 32-year-old finds himself in close contests).
I’m not sure if Shahbazyan will be able to get Dobson out of there, but I do suspect that the improvements he’s made at Xtreme Couture are enough to see him through to a competitive but clear decision win.
Karl Williams (-192) vs. Justin Tafa (+154)
Death, taxes, and the UFC matchmakers force-feeding us lower-level heavyweights on Fight Night main cards.
Despite having fun matchups like Julian Erosa vs. Ricardo Ramos on the prelims, the matchmakers saw fit to put another impromptu fight on the main card in the form of Karl Williams and Justin Tafa.
Williams was initially slated to face Junior Tafa, who was pulled from this fight to fill in for his brother back at UFC 298. Now, looking to complete “the Tafa shuffle,” Justin will return the favor to his brother by fighting in his stead to keep this booking alive.
Even though Williams’ wrestling should be enough to win this fight on paper, I’m not sure if the former high school wrestler’s game has developed enough to ensure a finish this Saturday. And if Williams is unable to put Tafa away, then he’ll likely be subjected to standing with the Samoan southpaw in between his wrestling bursts.
If Tafa’s whizzer defense can hold up as well as Lukasz Brzeski’s did against Williams, then I suspect that the New Zealand native will have his fair chances of taxing his former light-heavyweight foe on the feet and off the breaks.
It’s not a pick you can be confident in, but I’ll take a flier on the underdog Tafa to find a knockout in Round 2.
Amanda Ribas (+180) vs. Rose Namajunas (-225)
The main attraction in Las Vegas features a women’s flyweight fight between Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I don’t disagree with Namajunas being favored to win this fight.
Not only is Namajunas the more experienced party in five-round affairs, but Ribas’ porous defense is just asking to be audited by the former strawweight champion’s kicks and counters. That said, forecasting Namajunas’ fights is never as simple as it appears to be considering her history of Jekyll and Hyde-like performances.
In fact, if you score her rematches with Zhang Weili and Jessica Andrade slightly differently, you could argue that Namajunas has only won 1 fight since UFC 223 (which went down nearly six years ago).
If Namajunas is unable to produce a finish or create some serious momentum within the first two rounds, then I suspect that Ribas will only get livelier as the fight wears on.
It’s not a popular pick, but I’ll take Ribas to avoid the early knockout and produce an upset on the floor in Round 4.
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