What was Israel to do post Oct. 7?
It is an often-asked question whether out of genuine curiosity or to validate Israel’s current course of action—an all-out war on the Gaza Strip. There were, and remain, other options. Options that would have, in theory, both allowed for Israel to achieve its stated goal of “eradicating Hamas” in a greater and longer lasting way, which cannot be achieved at the current rate of civilian killing or continued hinderance of humanitarian aid and activity.
“In this kind of a fight, the center of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently said.
Men pray at sunset as people sit by a fire outside one of the tents housing Palestinians displaced by the conflict in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Dec. 18.
MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images
Austin and the U.S. military know what that looks like firsthand, given America’s experience for the last 20 years in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In both nations, declarations of tactical victories ultimately led to the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and put the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan.
To ensure that the civilian population is as protected as possible, when militaries “game out,” as it’s called, there must be greater military strategizing, coordination, and cooperation with humanitarian organizations if that “center of gravity” is to be preserved.
Over the last few weeks, I have consulted with multiple military and humanitarian experts, and drawn on my own experience of reporting from warzones for the last 20 years and working as a volunteer in the humanitarian sector with my own charity, INARA, for the last eight.
Of course, the ideal scenario would be for a permanent ceasefire, the release of hostages and Palestinians that have been detained for minor crimes, some sort of mechanism for Hamas to disarm, all illegal settlements in the West Bank to be dismantled, the occupation to end, and a real political process to allow both Israeli and Palestinian populations to live side by side. But we live in a less than ideal world. And the longer this war goes on the farther we are from any prospect for a solution, the deeper the isolation and alienation.
These measures are not all encompassing, but they represent realistic actions that can be taken to protect and provide for Gaza’s civilian population.
Give Hamas whatever it wants to secure the release(s) of the remaining hostages. While this might seem like a “win” for Hamas, what should be more important than optics for Israel is getting all the hostages out. It is notable that the lead voices calling for negotiations has been, and remains to be, the United States and Qatar, rather than the Israeli leadership.There must be a humanitarian ceasefire to allow for proper preparation of shelters, distributions, and the other needs of Gaza’s civilians. The strangulation of the civilian population into smaller and smaller areas is untenable and impossible to manage. Currently of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million, 85 percent are displaced. 1.3 million of those civilians are in UNRWA shelters, having to live in sub-human conditions that no organization can ease given the restrictions on flow of humanitarian aid. Israel needs to consult and coordinate with UN and other key humanitarian actors on the ground to allow for the time and access needed to identify additional shelters and warehouses, with guarantees from both Hamas and Israel that they will maintain a to be agreed on radius around those locations that will be designated “non-military zones.”These shelters need to have adequate winterization, water, toilets, and shower facilities. There are currently at least 650 people using one toilet without sufficient ways to maintain both personal hygiene, the cleaning of the facility itself, or the disposal of waste. The density of bodies in these shelters is untenable and resulting in the spread of communicable diseases and illnesses. As of this writing there are more than 100,000 cases of acute respiratory illnesses, the outbreak and spread of illnesses and infections like diarrhea (globally the leading killer of children under the age of five) , scabies, and cases of suspected jaundice and meningitis have started to emerge as well.Allow for UNRWA and other main humanitarian organization to re-activate previous logistics routes to get aid scaled up in Gaza. It is impossible to currently scale up humanitarian aid. At its maximum, during the recent pause we saw an average of 170 trucks crossing through Rafah. This is less than 40 percent of the trucks that were crossing prior to Oct. 7. Historically speaking, UNRWA and other large humanitarian organizations had all of their logistics and supply routes through Israel. Shipments of humanitarian supplies arrived at Israeli ports and trucks mainly crossed through Kerem Shalom.Israel needs to turn water and electricity it provided to Gaza back on and allow for repairs to electricity lines and water pipes. Given Israel’s concerns about fuel being “dual use,” i.e. would allow for Hamas to carry out attacks against Israel, fuel itself could remain under the control of UNRWA for distribution, as it currently is.Allow for cell service to be brought back online. The main telecommunication provider in Gaza announced that all telecom services had shut down due to cuts in the main fiber routes. This severely impedes the ability of aid organizations to organize distributions, calls for ambulances, and for families to be able to check in on each other.Assessment and facilitation for hospitals to be brought fully back online. Along with those on the ground and hospital staff, hospitals that can be brought back online should be designated no-combat zones, the displaced within them safely relocated to predetermined shelters (see point 2), regular fuel and medical supply should be guaranteed. As of Dec. 4, according to the World Health Organization, more than half of Gaza’s hospital were not functioning, with those remaining only providing basic first aid or partial services.Allow humanitarian workers unhindered access. Humanitarian staff inside need to be scaled up, those who have been working incessantly since this started need extra support, humanitarian workers need to be able to move in and out of Gaza with ease and without restrictions.Allow for heavy machinery to start clearing rubble in areas where appropriate, allow for civilians to recover and bury the bodies of the dead.Use of smaller bombs. Israel is currently mostly using 1000–2000-pound bombs. These have a devastating effect inside a densely populated area such as the Gaza strip. As is noted in The New York Times, the U.S. had designated even a 500-pound bomb as too heavy to deploy in Mosul in the battle there against ISIS, given the civilian population that was trapped there.Start post-war planning. While Israel seems to be currently planning on securing Gaza itself, this is neither a viable nor logical option, nor does it have U.S. support. At this stage it might appear to be beyond the scope, but the training of a Palestinian force that can move in, or some sort of non-Israeli force is something that should be seriously looked at. In addition, there needs to be a fund developed from now that will be focused on reconstruction, which also needs to start recruiting experts in planning. The population of Gaza needs to know and see that they will not be left on their own to pick up the pieces and Palestinians need to know that Israel will not be permitted to make a landgrab for Gaza.Bring a deal end to the illegal settlements in the West Bank and settler violence. Israel cannot allow for the violence in the West Bank to continue, this is simply serving to amplify anger at Israel and the injustices against the Palestinian population. The U.S. right now, in placing visa restrictions on “high profile” settlers, is taking more action against settlers than the Israeli state. The lack of action by the Israeli state against settler violence is doing little to counter the image of Israel being intent on wiping out all Palestinians.
We cannot turn back time, we cannot breathe life back into the dead, bring joy back into the dust. We all know that civilians die in war. But there is no real excuse for it to be as horrific as what we have witnessed and continue to witness in Gaza. Israel may very well “win,” it has control of the sky, the bombs, the border crossings, and the backing of the West especially the United States. But that “win” will not just be the “eradication” of Hamas. It will be the eradication of Gaza and its people. That is what we all have a moral obligation to prevent.
Arwa Damon is a former CNN senior international correspondent and the founder and president of the charity INARA. She is a senior resident fellow with the Atlantic Council and just directed her first documentary.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
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