Wild F1 speculation leads storylines as grid heads to Brazil for São Paulo Grand Prix

Around 9:15 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday night, after the Mexico City Grand Prix had concluded and the teams were looking to pack everything up and head to Brazil for the São Paulo Grand Prix, the Formula 1 world shuddered to a stop.

The reason? A cryptic tweet — post, or whatever we are calling it these days — on Twitter/X from noted F1 journalist Albert Fabrega. “No me quiero creer el rumor que me han dicho ahora en el paddock. No,” read the post. Loosely translated as “I don’t want to believe the rumor that they have told me now in the paddock. No.”

What did it mean?

The F1 world then spun into overdrive, with speculation growing about what Fabrega could be talking about? A shocking move to replace Sergio Pérez at Red Bull? It made sense given, well, all the speculation about his future with the team. That was kicked into hyperdrive when another noted F1 analyst, Will Buxton, quoted first Fabrega’s tweet, and then a story from Luke Smith at The Athletic which referenced Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner’s praise of how well Daniel Ricciardo had performed in Mexico City.

Some F1 writers even spent a few hours awake in the overnight hours, going down various rabbit holes to uncover what it all meant.

I needed a lot of caffeine on Monday morning, and had little to show for it.

Ricciardo replacing Pérez at Red Bull was not the only rumor. There were rumblings of a shock move by Fernando Alonso to Red Bull. Or even a potential sale of Aston Martin.

Yet, as we sit here today, nobody knows exactly what the rumor is, and whether anything will ever come of it.

But you better believe that storyline will linger into this weekend, as unclear as it may be.

Is the old Daniel Ricciardo truly back?

Speaking of Ricciardo.

For almost the entire weekend, Ricciardo was on point for AlphaTauri in Mexico City. He finished in P6 during the second practice session, after which he declared that he had a “top ten” car at his disposal. He showed that in qualifying on Saturday, where he put his AT04 on the second row, qualifying in fourth next to Max Verstappen.

He then proved it on Sunday, finishing seventh and as many noted, he was fighting with George Russell of Mercedes in the closing laps.

Among those who noticed?

Horner:

Of course, it was those comments that — in part — kicked the rumors into overdrive late Sunday night. But Ricciardo is coming off a stunning performance in Mexico City.

Can he do it again?

Mercedes versus Ferrari

After a week where both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc had podium finishes erased after their cars failed post-race inspections, the two drivers found their way back to the podium in Mexico City, with Hamilton finishing second and Leclerc third, as they had in Austin.

This time, they got to keep the trophies.

What did that mean for the fight for second place in the Constructors’ Championship between their respective teams? Not a lick. Thanks to Hamilton finishing second (and picking up the bonus point for the fastest lap) and Russell finishing sixth, Mercedes banked 27 points on Sunday.

With Leclerc’s third-place finish, and teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. finishing in fourth, Ferrari banked … 27 points.

So as these two teams head to São Paulo, 22 points remains the gap, with Mercedes currently in the lead. Can the Silver Arrows pull away, will Ferrari close the gap, or can the Scuderia even overtake Mercedes this weekend?

Or will we head to Las Vegas in a few weeks with things still status quo?

Plank checks remain a theme

The disqualifications of Hamilton and Leclerc remain a storyline as the grid heads to Brazil.

Following the United States Grand Prix, FIA’s technical team inspected four cars to measure whether their planks — parts of the car that sit underneath on the floor — satisfied regulations. Typically, as we’ll discuss in a moment, the technical team only inspects two. But when two cars (Hamilton’s and Leclerc’s) failed the inspection, they inspected both Verstappen’s and Lando Norris’s cars.

Both of which passed.

With two cars failing, questions were raised why Russell and Sainz, teammates of Hamilton and Leclerc, did not face subsequent inspections. Others wondered why all 20 cars are not inspected following a race.

As FIA Technical Director Tim Goss explained this week, the inspection process takes about 30 minutes per car, and if they were to examine all 20, you are looking at a very long wait to ratify race results.

“It is beyond just sticking a ruler or depth gauge into a hole and measuring a skid thickness,” Goss explained to Sky Sports F1. “We actually have to disassemble part of the car, the check takes probably about half an hour to do. If we had two crews doing that, then what we are looking at is five hours of work to check all the cars, after which you’d be reporting cars to the stewards.

“So then maybe the race result comes out some six, seven or eight hours after the race has finished and I don’t think that is acceptable for the sport.”

Questions about the process still linger, especially with many drivers admitting ahead of the Mexico City Grand Prix that they too might have failed such an inspection. Still, the majority of the grid believes that the randomness of the inspections, coupled with a severe penalty such as a DQ hanging over their heads, will get teams to comply.

Remember last year?

Coming out of last year’s race in Brazil, there was one major storyline.

Is everything ok between Verstappen and Pérez?

In the closing laps of last year’s race, Verstappen ignored team orders to let Pérez pass him, as his teammate was locked in a fight with Leclerc for second in the Drivers’ standings. That touched off rampant speculation about the relationship between the Red Bull teammates, fueled in large part by both drivers’ comments at the end of the race:

Pérez was left to settle for a seventh-place finish, and six points in the standings. Verstappen’s sixth-place finish netted him eight points.

By virtue of finishing fourth, Leclerc netted 12 points. When combined with the results of the F1 Sprint race that weekend, the two drivers left Brazil behind tied for second, each with 290 points on the year.

The team reportedly moved past the incident in the wake of last year’s race, with Horner saying that Red Bull was united in an effort to see Pérez through to second in the Drivers’ Championship.

Yet even after the team held a meeting to clear the air, there was still some frostiness.

But they came up short in Abu Dhabi a year ago, when Leclerc finished in second in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, ahead of Pérez in third. That allowed Leclerc to claim second by just three points.

So ultimately, Verstappen not letting Pérez through did not directly matter, as Pérez still would have lost to Leclerc by a single point.

But with Pérez now in a fight with Hamilton to hold onto second place, what will happen if a similar order is issued this year?

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