Tejashwi Yadav’s determination to defeat Pappu Yadav also cost the INDIA bloc, not just Purnia, but also damaged the coalition’s chances in neighbouring seats.
File photos of Akhilesh Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav
New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 11, 2024 19:43 IST
Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party emerged as a hero in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections after the SP-Congress combine reduced the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh to just 33 seats. Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi — the do ladkon ki jodi — defeated the mighty Narendra Modi-Yogi Adityanath “double engine”, and played a key role in bringing down the BJP’s tally at national level.
In neighbouring Bihar, however, Tejashwi Yadav could not replicate this success despite his popularity among the youth and Nitish Kumar’s declining appeal amid constant flip-flops. While the INDIA bloc dented the National Democratic Alliance tally in Bihar, it was on expected lines, Nitish Kumar’s gharwapsi benefitting the BJP-led coalition.
The SP learnt its lessons in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections — while the party’s vote share increased by 10.2 per cent, it largely improved at the cost of the Bahujan Samaj Party and others; the BJP’s vote share rose by 1.6 per cent. In 2024, the SP’s vote share increased by 16 per cent and ally Congress by three per cent, coming equally at the expense of the BSP (10 per cent) and the BJP (nine per cent). This, in comparison to 2022, made all the difference as SP managed to make a dent in BJP’s vote share.
The INDIA bloc in Bihar (the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the Left parties, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party) won nine seats while the NDA won 30. Exit polls predicted 33 seats for the NDA and just six seats for INDIA — closer to the actual results, unlike in UP. The NDA got 47 per cent of the votes, a dip of six per cent, and the INDIA bloc mustered 37 per cent.
While the RJD gained a seven per cent vote share, gaining three per cent each from the JD(U) and the BJP vote shares, its magnitude just wasn’t as big as the SP’s in Uttar Pradesh.
Why SP performed better
1. Captain Akhilesh took responsibility
The SP contested 62 of the 80 seats in UP, about 80 per cent, while the RJD contested 23 of Bihar’s 40 seats, about 60 per cent. The RJD gave three seats from its quota to the VIP; the party won zero seats in both 2019 and 2024. Akhilesh was criticised for giving too many seats to the Congress and other allies, 17 in total. But this seems to have worked.
Tejashwi Yadav’s determination to defeat Pappu Yadav also cost the INDIA bloc, not just Purnia but also damaged the coalition’s chances in neighbouring seats.
2. SP shed MY party image
The SP shed its Yadav tag by giving tickets to only five candidates from the caste group (just eight per cent of total tickets). The RJD gave tickets to nine Yadav candidates out of 23, 39 per cent of its total candidates. Hence, it was not able to convey the party’s message of representing all castes and communities. Half of its tickets were accounted for by Muslim-Yadav candidates. Akhilesh managed to expand his social coalition beyond the MY to include the PDA (pichhda, Dalit, and alpasankhyak).
3. SP made dents in BSP’s Dalit vote and BJP’s OBC vote
The SP (coalition) received 16 per cent while the RJD (coalition) received only 10 per cent of the upper caste support. The former received 34 per cent of the Kurmi/Koeri vote while the latter received only 19 per cent. Teajshwi wasn’t able to dent this Nitish Kumar vote bank.
The SP (and allies) received 82 per cent of the Yadav support while the RJD (and allies) received only 73 per cent — despite a much higher ticket distribution as per CSDS Post Poll Data 2024. The former received 34 per cent of the non-Yadav OBC vote while the latter received only 14 per cent. Denting the EBC/MBC vote bank was imperative to defeat the BJP, which Tejashwi failed to do.
Akhilesh and allies received 92 per cent of the Muslim vote while Tejashwi and allies received 87 per cent. Among Dalits, the former received 25 per cent and 56 per cent support from Jatavs and non-Jatavs, while the latter received 35 per cent Dusadh and 42 per cent of the other Scheduled Castes support.
4. SP consolidated core vote better
The increase of 35-38 per cent support for the SP-led coalition amongst the MY vote bloc itself would have accounted for an 11 per cent increase in the vote share of the alliance. The RJD alliance did much better compared to 2019 amongst SC voters, however, failed to make a significant dent in Other OBC voters. While the SP directly gave tickets to EBC candidates, Tejashwi relied on the VIP for this, which failed to deliver.
5. SP dented weak link Mayawati, Tejashwi couldn’t tame weak link Nitish
Akhilesh exploited the weakening base of BSP well. In a highly bipolar election, the SP managed to wean not only the non-Jatav votes but even the Jatav votes of the BSP, riding on its PDA plank and the narrative that the BJP would end reservation if voted to power.
The Congress, as part of the alliance, gave confidence to Dalits to switch from the BSP to the SP. On the other hand, while Tejashwi gained popularity amongst the youth, he was not able to make a severe dent in the EBC, women, and Kurmi/Koeri vote banks of the JD(U).
All in all, while the NDA in Bihar relied heavily on Modi (OBC) – Yogi (Thakur) Jodi, in Bihar it had a wider array of caste leaders in Nitish (Kurmi), Samrat Chaudhary (Koeri/Kushwaha), Jiten Ram Manjhi (Mahadalit), Chirag Paswan (Dusadh) to wade off threat posed by Tejashwi.
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)
Published On:
Jun 11, 2024
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