In recent years, the growing closeness between China and Russia has been the center of attention on the global scene. Both countries are increasing cooperation on the economic, military, and diplomatic fronts. In 2022, the bilateral trade volume reached $190 billion, 30 percent more than in 2021. They often support each other’s position in international forums like the UN. This growing alliance between two superpowers, Russia and China, is particularly troubling for the USA and its allies. Why are two major countries increasing ties? And what has been the nature of relationships in the past? Why are the US and its allies worried about this proximity? What are the chances of China and Russia becoming part of a major defense deal?
RUSSIA AND CHINA: Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of land area. Its land area is over 17.2 million square km, which covers 11 percent of the world’s landmass. But China is not a small country; its land area is second only to Russia, with an area of more than 9.6 million sq km, or 6.3 percent of the earth ‘s landmass. Thus, these two countries alone cover 17.3 percent of the earth’s land area.
China has over 2 million military personnel, the most in the world. Russia is fifth after China, India, America, and North Korea, with over 900,000. Thus they are counted among the big ones. China is the second largest economy in the world after the USA, while Russia is the eleventh.
Both countries are big in all respects. They are also considered powerful countries globally, and both are nuclear powers. Apart from that, both countries share a border.
Both countries have shared a border for centuries. The history of their relationship dates back to the 17th century, when China was under the Qing Dynasty, and the Russian Empire was also expanding. Their forces often clashed on the border. The first formal treaty was signed in 1689. A large part of Russia’s Far East was under Chinese influence. In the coming decades, the grip of the Chen dynasty began to weaken in China. So it was taken advantage of by external powers. After that, China’s century of Humiliation (1839-1949) began. At that time China was entangled with other Western powers, Britain, France, and Japan, and civil wars. Russia began to demand the region of Outer Manchuria from China. To avoid a new war, China reluctantly conceded Manchuria in the agreements of 1858 and 1860.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said, among the seized Russian weapons, they found several types of Chinese components. The USA has warned China about this. But China has denied the allegations of supplying any type of weapons to Russia.
After acquiring the territory of outer Manchuria. Russia took away China’s direct access to the Sea of Japan. This area later proved to be very important strategically for Russia. Today, the two largest cities of the Russian Far East are located in this region. After this Russian Pacific Fleet is based in Vladivostok, from where Russia gains access to the Pacific. Later leaders of China never forgot these agreements. They call them unequal treaties.
In 1949, China became independent when the USA-USSR Cold War was on. Although China and Russia were communist, due to their different interpretations, they had disagreements. China’s founding leader Mao Zedong was a staunch opponent of previous treaties. He wanted to reverse those agreements. Amur and Ussuri rivers were established as the border between China and Russia.
These rivers are very wide and there are many islands between them. Russia’s position was that the border is the banks of rivers on the Chinese side. This meant that all the river’s islands were owned by Russia. But China’s position was that the border is in the middle of the rivers. This difference also led to a clash in 1969 between Chinese and Russian forces, when China claimed ownership of Zhenbao Island in the Ussuri River. There was fear of a possible nuclear war at that time. Relations between China and the USSR continued to fluctuate in the following years due to border disputes.
But after Mao’s death, these relations began to improve slightly. In 1991, shortly before the collapse of the USSR. Russia and China settled a border dispute dating back to 1860 under an agreement. China’s right to Zhenbao Island was also accepted. After that, Russia and China completely resolved the more childish disputes. After the settlement of the Bards dispute, the era of good relations between the two countries began.
In 2001, the two countries also signed the Treaty of Good Neighborliness and friendly cooperation. It was a strategic, economic, and allegedly military agreement. Shortly before thbe agreement, China and Russia along with other central Asian states, also founded the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001. After that, many bilateral trade agreements were signed. China also started buying military equipment and oil from Russia.
In 2014, Russia took control of Crimea from Ukraine. After that, the Western world and the USA imposed various economic sanctions on Russia. To avoid the effects of these sanctions, Russia had to deepen its relations with China, because China was a big market, and Russia had to export its products somewhere.
These ties between China and Russia were strengthened when Chinese techi nology companies faced US sanctions in 2018. Since the USA was a common rival of both, it was not surprising that the two would come closer. In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Chinese counterpart, XI Jinping, at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
After that, in the joint declaration, both countries declared their friendship as No Limit Friendship. The visit was significant in many ways because shortly after, Russia invaded Ukraine. China also did not blame Russia after this attack. Rather, China’s stance was considered to be Russia’s.
After the war started, a resolution was presented to the UN General Assembly to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. China voted against the resolution. Although not directly, Russia has China’s support in the Ukraine war, at least at the diplomatic level. To escape Western influence and to continue its war campaign, Russia increased its trade with China.
According to a report, in the year 2022, the year the war started, bilateral trade increased by 30 percent over 2021. China exports semiconductors to Russia. In return, China gets cheap oil and gas from Russia. Apart from this, both countries are also working on a de-dollarization policy. Both countries are considering the use of national currencies for bilateral trade.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said, among the seized Russian weapons, they found several types of Chinese components. The USA has warned China about this. But China has denied the allegations of supplying any type of weapons to Russia. Apart from this, there is another reason for the USA and its allies to worry about the growing closeness of Russia and China. That is the sanctions imposed on Russia after the war have had negligible effect on Russia, because it is busy bypassing these restrictions and increasing trade with China. It is also a concern of the USA and its allies if Russia is successful in this war, this could give China the motivation to attack Taiwan as well.
It is highly unlikely that Russia and China will become part of the defense agreement. Because there are some points of difference between the two countries. That will not allow them to get too close :
First of all, Russia and China have differences in policy towards Central Asia. The region is considered Russia’s backyard, as all Central Asian states were part of the former USSR. Russia still has a lot of influence here China has also been busy increasing economic activities in this region in recent years. Russia doesn’t seem too happy about China’s growing influence in Central Asia.
Another point of difference can be that the third largest country in the region is India. The policy of both countries towards India is different. The border dispute between China and India is going on, and the relationship between China and India is always cold. Russia is an ally of India and the history of defence and diplomatic relations between both countries is quite long.
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