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Heavy rainfall, very cold conditions, rough seas, snow, and strong to gale force winds are expected over parts of the Cape provinces this weekend as a strong cold front makes landfall on Friday evening, July 28, along the west coast of the country. On Saturday, July 29, a cut-off low rapidly develops over the Western Cape further exacerbating weather conditions. Although the Cape provinces will experience the brunt of these conditions, the central and eastern parts of the country will also experience cold to very cold conditions from Saturday evening into Sunday.
A strong cold front is expected to make landfall along the west coast of South Africa and Namibia during Friday evening, causing scattered to widespread showers and rain along the coast of the Northern Cape and the western parts of the Western Cape. Very rough sea conditions along the coastal areas and windy conditions over the central and western interior of the country are also anticipated.
Day Natural Color satellite image depicting the large and strong cold front to the south-west of the country this morning, 27 July 2023. Source: Eumetsat, 2023
On Saturday, a cut-off low (an extension of a deep low-pressure from the main westerly wave) develops over the Western Cape and is expected to spread to the south-western parts of the Eastern Cape during Saturday afternoon. Cut-off low pressure systems are well known for causing flooding, gale force winds and snowfall in winter. Widespread rainfall can be expected over the western and southern parts of the Northern Cape, most parts of the Western Cape, and parts of the Eastern Cape on Saturday. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding is possible over parts of the Cape Metropole, Cape Winelands, and especially the Overberg and Garden Route Districts of the Western Cape mainly on Saturday but already over the Cape Metropole from Friday evening. These conditions are expected to spread along the south coast of the Eastern Cape on Saturday afternoon.
Very rough seas (associated with strong winds), with wave heights between 4.0 and 6.0 m can be expected along the west coast from Friday night, spreading along the south coast of the Western Cape on Saturday, to the coast of the Eastern Cape on Saturday night and reaching the KwaZulu-Natal coast on Sunday. These conditions may cause disruption to beachfront activities and difficulty in navigation at sea for small to medium vessels. High seas with wave heights between 6.0 to 7.0 m can also be expected along the south coast of the Western Cape from Saturday afternoon into Sunday, spreading to the Eastern Cape coast on Sunday (see figure 2a), which can lead to possible beach erosion and put small to medium vessels at risk of taking on water or capsizing.
Snowfall is expected across interior mountain ranges of the Western Cape, the western and southern high ground of the Northern Cape and the high ground of the Eastern Cape from Saturday (see figure 2b) into Sunday and may extend into the Drakensberg region of KwaZulu-Natal and the extreme southern parts of the Free State on Sunday. Disruptive snowfall can be expected over the interior high ground of the Western Cape, the northern and central high ground of the Eastern Cape and the southern high ground of the Northern Cape on Saturday into Sunday, which may lead to loss of livestock, closure of mountain passes and result in some communities to be temporarily inaccessible.
Numerical weather prediction data showing forecasted significant wave height (m) (Source: Wave Watch and Unified Models, SAWS)
24-hour snowfall accumulation (cm) for Saturday, 29 July 2023. (Source: Wave Watch and Unified Models, SAWS)
Very cold conditions (maximum temperatures between 5°C and 10°C) are expected over the interior of the Cape provinces from Saturday into Sunday, while cold conditions are expected to spread to the central and eastern parts of the country mainly on Sunday.
Numerical weather prediction model data showing forecasted daily maximum temperatures (in °C) for Saturday, 29 July. (Source: Global Forecast System)
Numerical weather prediction model data showing forecasted daily maximum temperatures (in °C) for Sunday, 30 July. (Source: Global Forecast System)
The weather systems are expected to weaken significantly on Sunday while exiting over the south-eastern parts of the country, causing weather conditions to improve mainly from Sunday evening into Monday. However, heavy ocean swell will continue to impact the southern and south-eastern coastline on Monday due to another cold front slipping along the southern coastal areas.
The South African Weather Service is closely monitoring this weather system and will update the public when needed. It is strongly advised that the public regularly follow weather forecasts on television, radio as well as social media platforms. Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SA Weather Service Twitter account @SAWeatherServic
Source: South African Weather Service
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