The Chicago Cubs take on the Boston Red Sox today, and we have Cubs odds, picks and predictions featuring our best bet for this July 14 game.
The Cubs enter the second half of the season at 42-47 and seven games back of the NL Central-leading Reds. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 48-43 and nine games back of the AL East-leading Rays.
I’m high on one of these starting pitchers, and he headlines our best bet for Cubs vs. Red Sox today.
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Red Sox (-120) vs. Cubs (+102)
Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+125) vs. Pirates +1.5 (-150)
Total: Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.(7:05 p.m. CT, MARQ)Probable pitchers: Brayan Bello (RHP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP)
I adore Boston starting pitcher Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox rotation has crumbled to injuries and poor performance, but Bello has emerged as a potential ace. His sinker-change mix forces a special combination of whiffs and ground balls, while his fastball-slider mix keeps hitters honest.
After a shaky start to his career, Bello has fully harnessed command and control of that arsenal. He has a 2.35 ERA and a 56% ground-ball rate over his past 12 starts.
Bello has even added a cutter mid-season, which has looked solid in a small sample size. History tells us that pitchers who add an extra pitch tend to see a bump in performance.
I’m uber-high on Bello and will back him on Friday by betting on the Red Sox.
The Cubs entered the break playing well, but the hard-hitting Red Sox still have a clear lineup advantage. On the year, the Red Sox are a top-10 offense by wRC+ (105), while the Cubs are a bottom-10 offense (97).
It’s also hard to trust Chicago starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has only struck out 32 batters across his 53 innings this year. His 3.04 ERA looks good, but I project some regression based on a low BABIP (.246) and high expected FIP (4.79).
Hendricks most recently allowed four earned to the Aaron Judge-less Yankees, so perhaps regression is already coming.
The Cubs have the superior bullpen. However, Bello should deliver the game to Boston’s back-end bullpen pieces, and we can trust Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen to close out a victory.
I love the Red Sox as short-road favorites on Friday.
Red Sox ML (-120) | Play to (-140)
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