Donald Trump was convicted at trial. Now what?

Donald Trump is now the first former U.S. president to be criminally convicted at trial, on all 34 counts of falsifying business records. What happens now?

We wait.

Judge Juan Merchan won’t be handing down Trump’s sentence just yet. There will be a future court date for that. Ahead of that sentencing date, both sides will most likely submit filings to the court, making their arguments for what sentence the judge should impose in this historic case. And like any convicted defendant, Trump should be interviewed by the probation department, which generates a pre-sentence report for the judge to consider in making a decision.

Merchan has many options in front of him, and incarceration isn’t mandatory.

Trump was convicted of falsifying business records in the first degree. While that’s a felony, it’s the lowest level felony in New York state. The options range from a fine up to a prison term of 1 1/3 to 4 years. The reason that that possible prison term is a range instead of a specific number is that this sentence is what’s known as “indeterminate” (as opposed to “determinate,” which would be a specific number). Here’s how New York State’s corrections website explains this type of sentencing:

An indeterminate sentence is one in which the sentencing court has established the minimum period of imprisonment and maximum term of imprisonment. After an incarcerated individual completes the minimum period of incarceration, they become eligible to appear before the Board of Parole for discretionary release consideration. If the Parole Board grants parole, the incarcerated individual will be subject to a period of community supervision until the completion of their sentence.

So even if Trump is sentenced to prison, the amount of time he serves may be relatively slight — though the significance of any time spent behind bars should not be minimized (putting aside whatever special practical accommodations would be made for a former president in this hypothetical scenario). And we should expect any prison sentences on multiple counts to run concurrently (meaning together) as opposed to consecutively.

But even if Merchan imposes a prison or jail term, we shouldn’t expect Trump to serve it any time soon. He’s very likely to appeal, and he’d remain free pending the appeal, which is unlikely to be resolved before the November presidential election.

With his possible return to the White House hanging over all four of his criminal cases, how it affects this one is another open question. But anyone banking on Trump’s conviction in this case leading to him behind bars in a prison jumpsuit should temper their expectations.

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Jordan Rubin

Jordan Rubin is the Deadline: Legal Blog writer. He was a prosecutor for the New York County District Attorney’s Office in Manhattan and is the author of “Bizarro,” a book about the secret war on synthetic drugs. Before he joined MSNBC, he was a legal reporter for Bloomberg Law.

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