Donald Trump's Conviction Was Meant to Sink Him in the Polls. It Hasn't

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election do not appear to have been significantly affected by the guilty verdict in his hush money trial, according to polls.

A New York City jury on May 30 found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to conceal hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, denied any wrongdoing. He claims the trial was “rigged” and the case an attempt to stop him from winning in November against President Joe Biden.

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump Tower on May 31 in New York City. Polls suggest Trump’s hush money conviction is not damaging his 2024 White…

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While there were some polls that indicate Trump has been harmed by his felony conviction in the close race, there have also been more recent surveys that indicate the trial has not severely damaged his White House hopes.

An Issues and Insights (I&I)/TIPP poll published Monday revealed that Trump and Biden are tied at 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup. That is an improvement for Trump, who was behind Biden in an I&I/TIPP poll in May by two points (42 to 40).

The latest I&I/TIPP survey was conducted between May 29 and May 31, with the polling group suggesting that a “significant share” of the 1,675 registered voters who took part in the survey would be aware that Trump had been found guilty of 34 felony counts.

The poll also revealed that independents still heavily favor Trump over Biden (38 percent to 26 percent). Support from that demographic may prove vital for the outcome of several key swing states that could determine the winner.

“If anyone was expecting a sudden mass exodus of Trump voters following his legal defeat they were certainly disappointed,” I&I editor Terry Jones wrote in his analysis of the polling data. “If anything, Trump’s hand seems to have strengthened some in the immediate aftermath of his conviction.”

Elsewhere, a Morning Consult survey of 10,404 registered voters, conducted between May 31 and June 2 in the days after the jury returned their verdict in New York, found that Trump is now ahead of Biden by one point (44 percent to 43 percent).

In a Morning Consult survey conducted on May 31, the day after Trump was found guilty, Biden led Trump by one point (45 percent to 44 percent) in a poll of 2,200 registered voters.

Newsweek contacted Trump’s campaign team for comment via email.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., previously suggested that support for Trump could still “melt away” in the long term once voters are more aware of the significance of having a convicted felon running for office.

“Opinion on Trump is pretty much baked on across the country already, and this verdict won’t change that,” he told Newsweek.

“In the short term, his polling, and indeed his fundraising, may get a boost, but this may dissipate in the weeks and months to come as voters get beyond the emotion of the court’s decision and focus on the fact that the former president was convicted by a jury of his peers: 12 citizens who weighed the evidence and simply did not believe him.”

Trump, who has vowed to appeal his conviction, is due to be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts have suggested it is unlikely Trump will receive prison time.

Speaking outside the New York City courtroom following his conviction, Trump called the proceedings a “disgrace,” adding: “The real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people.”

Update 05/06/2024, 9:09 a.m. ET: The headline was changed.