Published Jan 01, 2024 • Last updated 5 hours ago • 10 minute read
Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid, right, and defenseman Mattias Ekholm, left, celebrate a goal by center Leon Draisaitl as Los Angeles Kings goaltender Cam Talbot stands at goal during the second period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023, in Los Angeles. Photo by Mark J. Terrill /AP
Happy New Year!
Edmonton Oilers finished up the old one with a bang, winning their last 5 straight contests of a convoluted 6-game road trip that took them to both coasts with a 5-day Christmas break in the middle. In the process, the squad played their first 2 back-to-backs of the entire season and swept them both, beating the Devils and Rangers on Dec 21-22 and then getting past the Kings and Ducks on the 30-31. In between times, a 5-0 whitewash of the Sharks. What’s not to like?
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Just like that, the Oilers have clawed their way back to an 18-15-1 record through 34 games, just a single point behind the 18-14-2 mark they posted in both 2021-22 and 2022-23. (Stick tap: Jack Michaels] In both prior cases the local side surged in the second half to finish a strong second in the Pacific Division, followed by a modicum of playoff success each season.
In both of those seasons, as in this one, the Oilers were on the very margins of playoff contention upon completion of that 34th game. Sorted by percentage they were 10th in the West in 2021-22; 8th in 2022-23; now 9th in 2023-24. In each case they’d won a bare majority (53%) of their games, but always seem to hang near the back of the pack in Bettman Points to make the hill a bit steeper.
What’s significant about Game 34? Nothing in particular, other than this time around it happened to be the last game of the 2023 portion of the season.
The change of calendar serves as a useful divider of statistical data into something resembling season-length chunks. It’s a good time to ask, how has the team performed over the last 12 months?
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Pretty darned well, it turns out. In 2023 the sample was a little smaller, 78 regular season games, than that of 2022. That year they played 89 (due in part to COVID postponements in late 2021); still, roughly season-length in both cases. 28 rival teams played more games than did Edmonton in 2023, just 2 played fewer, so we’ll use points percentage or per-game averages to balance the scales.
We’ll stick primarily to data on the Team Summary page at NHL.com. No need to reinvent the wheel in this overview:
Record: 78 GP, 48-22-8, 104 points, .667 Points % [6th in NHL]
That strong overall record was built primarily at the offensive end of the sheet, where the Oilers were the NHL’s best in 2023:
Goals For / GP: 3.97 [1st] Shots For / GP: 34.5 [4th]Powerplay %: 29.2 [1st]Net PP% (PPGF – SHGA): 26.0 [2nd]
Defensively the club was middle of the pack or better:
Goals Against / GP: 3.08 [T-16th]Shots Against / GP: 29.4 [7th]Penalty Kill %: 80.1% [14th]Net PK%: 87.0% [6th]
The combination of the two:
Goal difference / GP: +0.89 [T-2nd]Shot difference / GP: +5.1 [5th]PP% + PK%: 109.3% [T-2nd]Net PP%: 113.0% [1st]
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The last group is the most important, and places Edmonton in the top 5 in the league across the board. Overall, the Oilers were in the top half of the league in every category in 2023, and top quarter in 10 of the 12.
Not bad, not bad at all.
Goal
In an equivalent post a year ago, we took the opportunity to do a deep dive into the personal stats of Jack Campbell, which pretty much fell off a cliff as 2021 morphed into 2022. No need to dig so deep this time around; Campbell had his moments but played his way off the team with a pair of dreadful 5-game slides, the second of which represents the entirety of his NHL action in the current season.
Turns out the Oilers had developed a younger, cheaper, better netminder in house in the imposing form of Stuart Skinner. He survived a difficult start of his own in 2023-24 to regain his equilibrium and firmly establish himself as the organization’s #1 stopper. His goals against average was fully half a goal per 60 better than Campbell, while his save percentage — bang on the league average at .903 –was 10 basis points better. But in one key category they were near equals; Oilers posted a .670 points percentage with Skinner in the pipes and .673 with Campbell. Either way, the pace for a 110-point season.
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Current backup Calvin Pickard is holding his own to this point, also boasting a league-average Sv% with a respectable .600 Pts%. Meanwhile, Matthew Berlin’s minuscule stat line is shown here simply to remember one of the year’s happiest story lines.
For skaters, we will consider only those who played at least 10 games wearing the Oil drop.
Defence
The arrival of Mattias Ekholm in exchange for Tyson Barrie at the end of February was a pivotal moment for the club. Just like that the dynamic changed from a single heavy-minutes pairing — Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci — providing major shelter for what amounted to two third pairings plus an extra, to a true NHL-calibre top 4 and well-defined bottom pair. As noted right from Day One, that exchange opened new doors for rising star Evan Bouchard at both even strength and the powerplay. GM Ken Holland could scarcely have ordered a more suitable left-shot partner for Bouchard via Amazon. The new duo is considered by many to be the de facto top pairing, even as Nurse and Ceci remain on the scene to soak up big minutes against the toughs.
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In a way it reminds this observer of the heady days of the middle 1980s, when Edmonton’s top 4 consisted of an offensive pairing (Paul Coffey with Charlie Huddy) and a defence-first duo (Kevin Lowe with first Lee Fogolin, later Craig Muni). One pair excelled at play-driving and powerplay duties, the other was typically first up on the PK or in protecting-the-lead scenarios. Who was the top pairing du jour often depended on what was required in that moment.
It’s not so cut-and-dry in the modern game where just a single rearguard plays on the typical first-unit PP. In Edmonton that is Bouchard, who has posted excellent results, especially since Barrie’s departure from the unit two months into the year. Worth noting he also led the Oilers in even-strength points in 2023, though Nurse was hot on his heels in that category, as was Ekholm when prorated on a per-game basis. Ceci lagged well behind at about half the EVP/GP rate, and precisely 0% of the goals rate. He is clearly #4 on the pecking order, and ranks as such in ice time a little behind the big three 20-minute men. All 3 of Nurse, Ekholm and Ceci play big minutes on the PK, but only the first 2 of them also see time on the second PP unit.
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Overall, Nurse was the top minute-muncher of the group, though that gap was closing in the later stages of the year. As in 2022, he also led the group in shots, penalty minutes and unshown categories such as blocked shots and hits.
On the third pairing, long-shot prospect Vincent Desharnais made the jump to the big leagues at the advanced age of 26 to provide a solid defensive anchor on the third pairing alongside mobile Brett Kulak. That each player in the d-corps is slotted correctly seems confirmed by the solid plus rating each has compiled. The departed Barrie stands out in this category, and not in a good way.
Edmonton Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais, left, scuffles with Anaheim Ducks centre Sam Carrick on Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Anaheim, Calif. Photo by Mark J. Terrill /AP Photo
Forwards
That’s a whole lot of orange circles along the top row, where franchise icon Connor McDavid again ruled the roost. McDavid copped his fifth scoring title, fourth Ted Lindsay Award, third Hart Trophy and first Rocket Richard Trophy in 2022-23 as the undisputed best player in the game. He stumbled out of the gate this past fall, dealing with an injury that sidelined him for a couple of games and rendered him less than fully effective for quite a few more; the entire team and indeed fan base felt his pain.
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Leon Draisaitl produced the goods as not just a terrific playmaker but the most reliable shooter on the club, producing just under 50 goals in just under a full season’s worth of games. His shooting percentage stands out, with only the departed Klim Kostin in the same area code on a very small number of shots. Third in this category is the surprising Ryan McLeod, not viewed as much of a finisher until a year-ending run of 5 goals in 5 games on just 7 shots elevated his results. Just like that he was a 15-goal, 30-point scorer in 2023, with 90% of that production occurring at even strength.
In addition to McDavid and Draisaitl who accomplished both feats, Zach Hyman was a third 40-goal scorer in 2023, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was a third set-up man to top 60 assists. Simply put, the Oilers’ ability to light the lamp was the envy of the league, as was their powerplay, with considerable overlap between the two.
Then there’s the case of Warren Foegele, whose 40 points over the calendar year pales in comparison to the gawdy totals of the big four until one considers that 39 of those 40 were earned at even strength, every one of those at 5v5. Indeed, Foegele’s rate of 2.71 points per 60 at 5v5 trailed just McDavid’s 2..93 and pleasant surprise Sam Gagner‘s 2.73 on the club, outstripping the likes of Hyman (2.60), Draisaitl (2.54) and RNH (2.27) at the discipline.
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(As an aside, Foegele’s feat of 5 points at 5v5 in Sunday’s win over Anaheim is something neither McDavid nor Draisaitl has ever accomplished. Last guy to do it was none other than Gagner, who produced a stunning seven even-strength points in his famous game vs. the Blackhawks a dozen years ago now.)
A couple of red minus figures fairly jump off a field otherwise awash in green. While providing some solid secondary scoring, Evander Kane has struggled to out-score since returning from a calamitous wrist injury last January, posting a minus figure in 5 of the 7 months. He has brought a consistent physical presence, leading the group in both PiM and hits despite missing a bunch of time. Still, the objective of the game is to score more goals than the other guys so it’s something of a concern going forward.
Meanwhile, off-season addition Connor Brown — another veteran winger coming back from major injury — has struggled mightily from the get-go, providing neither secondary scoring nor out-scoring through a challenging first half.
Otherwise, the bottom of the line-up has plenty of guys who hold their own or a little bit better despite limited offensive opportunities. Special shout-out to 37-year-old Derek Ryan whose +13 in a depth role throughout 2023 shines like a diamond. Despite absorbing a near nightly physical pounding from bigger, faster, younger men, all Ryan brings is depth scoring, penalty killing, right-shot faceoff winning and, oh yeah, shootout wizardry, all the while delivering a master class in puck placement. He is a pleasure to watch.
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The months ahead
No crystal ball here, just a few hard facts about the future. I keep reading on sites such as this one that the Oilers have already played the toughest part of their schedule and have the relatively easier section left, but I would caution there is more to it than strength of opponent. Rest is an extremely important factor. The squad has had plenty of it already with a pair of 5-day breaks, a further 9-day layoff awaiting at the end of a fairly slow January. Despite having already accumulated several games in hand on many rivals, the Oil will only begin to play those “extra” games after that layoff.
The schedule ends on Thursday, April 18, so the weeks shown here are Friday through Thursday with a runt at the very top of the list and full weeks the rest of the way.
Consider, the Oilers only play 12 games in the next 5½ weeks. But in the 5 weeks after that, they play 18. And in the 5 weeks after that, they play another 18. That’s an average of a leisurely 2.2 games per week in the first stretch, but a hectic 3.6 the rest of the way. In 4 of the weeks they play 4 games; in the final 7 days, a brutal 5. Similarly, of Edmonton’s 8 back-to-backs all season, 6 come in this closing stretch, with 2 of them in the final week. That’s nasty whether the team is fighting for a berth in the playoffs or merely resting up for them.
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The upshot is that management still has a bit of time to get the goaltending situation sorted out. But by the time they get to playing a game every other day for 10 solid weeks, it needs to be settled.
Thankfully, this Oilers group has developed a history of being a very strong second half club. That fact is reflected in much of the above piece which incorporates last season’s superb closing run. Can the current Oilers do something similar in the 2024 part of the season? As the old saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
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