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Solar photovoltaic and thermoelectric energy production and wind energy production
In the third week of July, solar photovoltaic energy weekly production in France reached 650 GWh, a historical record for the French market. Compared to the previous week, production increased by 4.7%.
In the rest of the analyzed markets, solar energy production fell. The Italian market had the lowest decrease at 0.8%. In the markets of Spain and Portugal, production decreased by 4.3% and 5.8% respectively. The largest decrease was registered in the German market, which was 10%.
For the week of July 24, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasting indicates an increase for the Spanish market, while German and Italian markets are expected to decrease.
In the week of July 17, wind energy production increased in the Italian and Spanish markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market had the highest increase at 40%, while the increase in the Spanish was 4.9%.
The markets in Germany, France, and Portugal, had a decrease in wind energy production for the same period. The largest decrease was registered in Germany and France, down 19% in both cases. In the Portuguese market, wind energy production was 11% lower than the previous week. On Thursday, July 20, 45 GWh was registered, the highest daily production so far in July.
For the last week of July, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasting indicates increases in the Italian, German, and French markets. Decreases in the market in Spain and Portugal are expected.
Electricity demand
In the week of July 17, the electricity demand increased in most analyzed European markets compared to the previous week. The largest increase was 6.6%, which was registered in the Italian market. In in addition on Wednesday, July 19, the highest demand since the end of July 2015 was recorded, at 1179 GWh. On the same day, the second highest temperature of 2023 was registered in Italy.
The second market with the largest increase in demand was the Netherlands, with a rise of 6.3%. IThere were increases of 0.4% in the Spanish market and 2.9% in the British market. In the case of Spain, the demand on Wednesday, July 19, reached 787 GWh, the highest registered since the end of January 2021, and it was the day with the highest average temperature of the year to date in Mainland Spain.
Although the average temperatures for the week fell in some markets compared to the previous week, the high temperatures registered over several days of the week favored an increase in demand. In the case of France, the increase in demand was triggered by a return to work after the holiday on Friday, July 14, the French National Day.
The demand in Belgium, Germany, and Portugal decreased during the analyzed period. The largest decrease was registered in the Belgian market, which fell by 6.1%. In the German market and in the Portuguese markets demand dropped by 3.2% and 2.0%, respectively.
For the last week of July, according to the demand forecasts done by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, demand is expected to drop in most of the main European markets analyzed, with the exception of Portugal, the Netherlands, and Great Britain.
European electricity markets
In the week of July 17, prices of most European electricity markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting increased compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with a fall of 40%, and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with a slight downward trend that led to decreases of 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively. The largest price rise the N2EX market in the United Kingdom, up 18%. In the rest of the markets, prices rose 2.0% in the IPEX market of Italy and 9.2% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
In the third week of July, weekly averages were below €90/MWh in almost all European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, with the highest average price, of €116.31/MWh. The lowest weekly average was that of the Nordic market, of €23.49/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices were between €78.37/MWh of the Belgian market and €89.00/MWh of the British market.
Regarding hourly prices, on Sunday, July 23, from 14:00 to 17:00, a price of €0.00/MWh was registered in the Spanish market. This also happened on the same day in the Portuguese market, from 16:00 to 17:00, and on July 17 in the Nordic market, from 14:00 to 15:00. In the case of the Belgian and Dutch markets, negative hourly prices were registered on Monday, July 17.
On Sunday, July 23, negative prices were registered in the German, Belgian, French, and Dutch markets, influenced by high wind and solar renewable energy production, especially in Germany, combined with the decline in demand over the weekend.
The lowest hourly price, of ‑€52.65/MWh, was reached on Monday, July 17, from 12:00 to 13:00, in the Dutch market. On the other hand, on Wednesday, July 19, from 19:00 to 20:00, a price of €205.00/MWh was reached in the Italian market, the highest in this market since April.
During the week of July 17, the increase in demand, the drop in wind and solar energy production in most analyzed European markets and the increase in CO2 emission rights prices led to the increase in European electricity markets prices. In addition, although the average price of gas was lower than the previous week, the week prices registered an upward trend throughout the week.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasting indicates that, in the fourth week of July, prices might decrease in most European electricity markets, influenced by decreases in electricity demand in some markets and increases in wind energy production in Germany, France, and Italy.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market, on Monday, July 17, registered the weekly minimum settlement price, of $78.50/bbl, which was 1.0% higher than that of the previous Monday. In the following sessions of the third week of July, settlement prices were higher, but remained below $80/bbl. However, on Friday, July 21, the weekly maximum settlement price, of $81.07/bbl, was reached. This price was 1.5% higher than that of the previous Friday.
In the third week of July, expectations of lower supply levels in the coming months exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices. The increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the announcement of measures to promote the development of the Chinese economy also contributed to price increases. On the other hand, in the fourth week of July, the possible rises in interest rates in the United States and the European Union might exert a downward influence on prices.
As for TTF gas futures prices in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, July 17, they continued the downward trend of the previous week and the weekly minimum settlement price of €25.10/MWh was registered. This price was 17% lower than that of the previous Monday and the lowest since June 6. But most sessions of the third week of July registered price increases. As a consequence, on Friday, July 21, the weekly maximum settlement price of €28.85/MWh was reached. This price was 11% higher than that of the previous Friday. However, the average for the third week of July was still 1.8% lower than the previous week.
The increase in demand for electricity production, due to high temperatures and the decrease in wind energy production, exerted its upward influence on TTF gas futures prices in the third week of July. However, European reserve levels are high and gas supply from Norway increased after completion of maintenance work.
Regarding CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2023, on Monday, July 17, the weekly minimum settlement price, of €86.49/t, was registered, which was 0.2% higher than the previous Monday. In the third week of July, the futures prices registered an upward trend. As a consequence, on Friday, July 21, the weekly maximum settlement price of €91.43/t was reached. This price was 6.3% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since the fourth week of June. Expectations of a lower offer in the auctions of August exerted an upward influence on prices in the third week of July.
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