Green hydrogen makes up less than 1 percent of all hydrogen production grades, according to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
Transforming that 10 million metric tons into green hydrogen by the Energy Department’s 2030 goal will be difficult for U.S. hydrogen producers, according to energy industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie. After that, targets become even steeper — 20 million metric tons annually by 2040 and 50 million metric tons by 2050.
“Several factors make meeting these production targets unlikely,” said Wood Mackenzie analyst Hector Arreola.
“The level of penetration on each end-use in the U.S. is uncertain and will vary widely.”
Green hydrogen production will also be up against decarbonization alternatives, and there may be a lack of public policy support for hydrogen production technology, Arreola said.
Hydrogen may not gain wide customer acceptance in some industries, limiting its demand. Trucking, for example, might not adapt fuel cell vehicles in large numbers, Osborne said. Such trucks might be too expensive to purchase or have high repair costs, he said.
Mike Roeth, executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, told Automotive News that in the coming years, he doesn’t expect hydrogen to become a ubiquitous fuel like diesel, the current dominant fuel for the trucking industry. The council’s members include fuel, automotive and consumer companies such as Shell, Cummins, Penske and PepsiCo.
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