Jake Guentzel to the Oilers? Oddsmaker favours Edmonton

Published Feb 07, 2024  •  Last updated 1 hour ago  •  4 minute read

Nov 2, 2019; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Ethan Bear (74) and center Connor McDavid (97) clear the puck away from Pittsburgh Penguins center Jake Guentzel (59) during the first period at PPG PAINTS Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: USATSI-405197 Photo by Charles LeClaire /USA TODAY Sports

Talk of the Pittsburgh Penguins trading star winger Jake Guentzel is hot and heavy.

Edmonton makes some sense as a trade destination. Insiders have said acquiring a Top 6 winger is a priority for the Oilers. Guentzel is most definitely a Top 6 winger. In fact, he’s a top line winger.

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Now a Pennsylvania online betting site, PennStakes.com, says that the team most likely to acquire Guentzel is the Edmonton Oilers

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This same gambling site says the most likely outcome by far is that Guentzel remain on the Penguins, but lists Edmonton as a slight favourite to acquire the player if he’s to be traded, ahead of Colorado and Vegas.

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My take

1. Guentzel is a huge name in hockey, a star attacking winger in his prime, with 50 points in 47 games this year. He’s 29 and will be an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer. He’s also got a 12-team no-trade list on his current contract. Edmonton may well be on that list. If so, Guentzel would have to agree to come here. The thought of a Stanley Cup run might well be enough of an enticement to do so, but you never know.

2. Guentzel is a career Penguin. It’s hard to imagine the team won’t find a way to resign the player, what with that city’s Stanley Cup hopes still flickering in the final years of the Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang era. Is the same team that acquired 33-year-old Erik Karlsson this past summer suddenly a seller at the trade deadline? Hmm.

Of course, Guentzel could agree to be traded to Edmonton, go on that adventure, then sign again with Pittsburgh in the summer. It’s hard to imagine that the Oilers could ever conjure up the cap space to sign him. It’s not impossible, no, but hard to imagine.

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3. TSN has Guentzel #15 on its trade targets list. The Daily Faceoff has Guentzel listed at #25 on its own list and reports: “Guentzel is not in play just yet… GM Kyle Dubas owes this aging core every possible inch of runway to see if they can get in. If not, and it looks like they’ll miss for the second straight spring – even with Sidney Crosby turning back the clock – then Dubas will have little choice but to recoup as much as he can for an elite scoring winger. Guentzel would immediately become the most prized rental trade chip available before the deadline, which is certainly worth keeping an eye on.”

4. Pittsburgh is five points out of a wildcard spot, though with three games in hand on Detroit and four games in hand on Philadelphia. The next few weeks will decide Pitt’s fate. It’s got to go on a run. If not, could they move out Guentzel? As I say, it’s been all the talk in Pittsburgh. The Athletic’s Josh Yoshe reports: “In a perfect world, the Penguins would like to give Jake Guentzel a new contract. It all depends on Guentzel’s willingness to give the Penguins a somewhat team-friendly deal. (GM Kyle) Dubas recognizes Guentzel’s greatness… From what I’ve been told, Dubas isn’t afraid to trade Guentzel, even if Crosby and Sullivan would prefer to keep him employed in Pittsburgh. If Dubas believes a new contract simply isn’t in the cards, I believe he’ll trade Guentzel before letting him walk for nothing.”

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At the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Matt Vensel reports: “Dubas, who recently suggested he could chat with Guentzel’s agent during the All-Star break, has not tipped his hand when it comes to the star winger. But if he opts to put Guentzel on the trade block in the coming weeks, Guentzel would likely be the best and most sought-after player available on the market…Given his scoring, sneaky playmaking ability and big-game reputation, he could fetch the Penguins a first-round pick and perhaps also a premium prospect. Or maybe a couple of quality NHL players who have term on their contracts.”

5. I can see Edmonton going all-in and trading a first round pick for Guentzel, plus a top prospect, but I doubt Edmonton would pull the trigger if that top prospect is Philip Broberg. That would be too much for GM Ken Holland to pay for a rental. But any other prospect in the Oilers system? Or a couple of them? Yes, I could see that happening.

6. Of course, other teams will be in the market for Guentzel, correct? A team that is fighting for the Cup but also has more cap space to sign Guentzel long term this summer would have the incentive to offer more than the Oilers.  Guentzel might well prefer to go to a city where he intends to sign long term.

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Guentzel also has a $6 million cap hit, which is more than the Oilers can afford. For a deal to work, Pittsburgh would have to get another pick from Edmonton in order to eat 50 per cent of that contract. In this way, the Oilers are a long shot.

But they were also a long shot to recover from their ghastly start to the season, right? With Connor McDavid on the team, and with the Oilers shaping up as a solid Cup contender, difficult things suddenly become possible.

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