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Labour lead falls by three points in first pre-election poll

May 25, 2024
in News
Labour lead falls by three points in first pre-election poll
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Sir Keir Starmer on a campaign visit to Lancashire on Friday afternoon

Sir Keir Starmer on a campaign visit to Lancashire on Friday afternoon

Credit: Labour Party

Labour’s lead has fallen by three points in the first YouGov poll since Rishi Sunak called the 2024 general election.

The survey, conducted on Thursday and Friday, shows the Conservatives up by one point to 22 per cent, while Labour is down two to 44 per cent.

The poll would still give Sir Keir Starmer a significant majority if translated to the election but it suggests that, as with previous national votes, the gap between the two major parties is likely to narrow between now and polling day.

Meanwhile Richard Tice’s Reform party closed the gap on the Tories to eight per cent as it rose to 14 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats are on nine points, the Green Party on six and the SNP on three.  

Follow the latest updates below and join in the conversation in the comments

Live Reporting

Related Stories

25 May 2024 • 8:46am

8:46AM

Labour could give 16 and 17-year-olds right to vote

Labour could reportedly give 16 and 17-year-olds the right to vote in its first year if it wins the general election, my colleague Will Hazell reports.

Last September, Labour said it would extend the franchise in in line with Scotland and Wales, which have already given 16 and 17-year-olds the vote for local elections and those for the devolved assemblies.

The policy was in the final draft emerging from its national policy forum – a key stepping stone in the process which Labour uses to draw up its manifesto.

At the time, a Labour spokesman said: “At the age of 16, many young people are paying taxes, working, and engaging in all parts of society – it is right that they get a say in who governs them.”

8:39AM

Dame Andrea Jenkyns: Time to ‘Bring Back Boris’

Boris Johnson has been urged to stand for election by one of his staunchest MP supporters.

Dame Andrea Jenkyns submitted a letter of no confidence in Rishi Sunak last year and served as an education minister in the final months of Mr Johnson’s government. She wrote on X, formerly Twitter:

With so many MPs retiring. I think @BorisJohnson should stand in one of these seats. Time to ‘Bring Back Boris’. We need him to help stop Sir kneel a lot, flip-flopping, anti-Brexit, not knowing ‘what a woman is’ Starmer and Rayner from getting into power. pic.twitter.com/ft0pmhcJBl

— Andrea Jenkyns 🇬🇧 For Leeds South West & Morley (@andreajenkyns) May 25, 2024

However, friends of the former prime minister believe he is unlikely to stand again as an MP in the upcoming electio.

Friends told The Telegraph this week Mr Johnson returning to the fray was unlikely to happen, with one saying: “I would think 100 [per cent] not!”

8:29AM

Rachel Reeves: Stability in on the ballot paper

Rachel Reeves vowed in a new campaign video to keep tax, mortgages and inflation “as low as possible” under a Labour government.

The shadow chancellor said “stability [is] what’s on the ballot paper” on July 4, and cited her experience at the Bank of England as proof of her economic credentials.

Ms Reeves said: “Five more years of chaos with the Conservatives, or stability with a changed Labour Party. Because at this election stability is change… I know what it takes to run a successful economy and I know the importance of protecting family finances.

“After 14 years of the Conservatives you are worse off – taxes at a 70-year high, mortgages up and prices higher in the shops. It’s time for change.

“With me as chancellor, you’ll get economic stability, stability to protect family finances, stability to give businesses the confidence to invest and stability so we can keep taxes, inflation and mortgages as low as possible.”

8:23AM

Tory MP: My anniversary staycation has become a campaign day

A Conservative MP has said a staycation to mark his five-year wedding anniversary has become a full day of campaigning.

Dr Luke Evans, who is fighting for re-election in Hinckley and Bosworth, shared a photo of himself and his wife Dr Charlotte March, writing: “Five years ago today, a gorgeous, smart, loving woman married me!

“It has been a rollercoaster for 5 years. I certainly didn’t expect our planned staycation in Southend to celebrate, becoming a full days election campaigning – she has the patience of a saint!”

5 years ago today, a gorgeous, smart, loving woman married me! It has been a rollercoaster for 5 years. I certainly didn’t expect our planned staycation in Southend to celebrate, becoming a full days election campaigning – she has the patience of a saint! 1/2 pic.twitter.com/f2Q0hGg1NE

— Dr Luke Evans MP (@drlukeevans) May 25, 2024

8:16AM

Vote Labour, jokes Jeremy Hunt ahead of Lib Dem fight

Jeremy Hunt jokingly urged people to vote Labour in his Godalming and Ash where his seat is under threat from the Liberal Democrats.

The Chancellor was reported by the Financial Times to have made the remarks at a charity Lancaster House event in honour of Chris Martin, the late civil servant.

Quipping he endorsed tactical voting in his own backyard, Mr Hunt said: “Vote Labour in Godalming and Ash where I’m dealing with those b——-s, the Liberal Democrats.”

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt in Compton, Surrey as he fights to keep the Liberal Democrats out

Credit: Geoff Pugh

Sir Ed Davey’s party is hoping to achieve a ‘Portillo moment’ by unseating Mr Hunt in the newly-created constituency.

In South West Surrey, Mr Hunt won a majority of just under 9,000, or 15 per cent, at the last general election.

8:13AM

Bellwether seat dispatch: ‘Labour can win ‘true blue’ Basingstoke for the first time’

Each week, the Telegraph will be taking the temperature in key constituencies around the country whose result could point the way for how the country will vote in July’s election. This week, Guy Kelly reports from Basingstoke:

It’s unlikely there’s anybody around who remembers it, but the general election of 1923 was a historic one for Basingstoke. It was the only time since the creation of the constituency, in 1885, that voters elected anybody other than a Conservative MP.

Reginald Fletcher, 1st Baron Winster, the Liberal victor in that contest 101 years ago, was the exception that proves the rule in these parts. Other than on that occasion, this slice of north-east Hampshire has been as “true blue” as they come.

But could this be about to change? This July, how Basingstoke votes will suddenly be of national importance as it is being touted as an early predictor of how the country will vote.

Dispatch: The mood on the streets is one of change

8:08AM

Inheritance tax against Tory values, says Hunt

Jeremy Hunt has said that inheritance tax is unfair as he vowed to support the middle classes with tax breaks.

In an interview with The Telegraph, the Chancellor described death duties as “profoundly anti-Conservative”, adding that the Tories would end taxes that discourage people from earning more money.

Mr Hunt vowed to build on two cuts to National Insurance and said: “We made a start, and we will go further.”

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt heading to his constituency to start canvassing ahead of the general election

Credit: Geoff Pugh

In his first interview since Rishi Sunak called the snap poll on July 4, Mr Hunt said the Tory manifesto would focus primarily on tax cuts that boost growth, reducing “taxes on work” and those that “disincentivise saving”.

The Chancellor’s promise of support for the middle classes came as private schools warned that parents were pulling children out ahead of Labour’s pledge to add VAT to the fees.

Szu Ping Chan and Madeleine Ross have the story

8:03AM

Almost three in five voters ‘10/10 certain to vote’

Almost three in five voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote” in the first YouGov poll since the election was announced.

Sixty-six per cent of those aged 65 and over are certain to vote, as are 62 per cent of those aged 50 to 64 and 54 per cent of people aged 25 to 49.

The number of 18-to-24-year-olds saying they were certain to vote is up by 17 percentage points to 52 per cent.

% saying they are “10/10 – absolutely certain to vote” in our first poll since the election was announced (23-24 May)

All Britons: 58% (+5 from 21-22 May)

18-24yr olds: 52% (+17)
25-49yr olds: 54% (+3)
50-64yr olds: 62% (+5)
65+yr olds: 66% (+7)https://t.co/DlJLmUd7e0 pic.twitter.com/2Y0V8MEhKb

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 25, 2024

7:59AM

Good morning

Dominic Penna here, The Telegraph’s Political Correspondent, guiding you through the first Saturday of the general election campaign.

Labour’s lead is down by three points in the first YouGov poll since Rishi Sunak called the snap summer poll for July 4.

The survey, conducted on Thursday and Friday, shows the Conservatives up by one point to 22 per cent, while Labour is down two to 44 per cent.

It comes after a dramatic day yesterday in which Tory ‘big beasts’ including Michael Gove, Sir John Redwood and Dame Andrea Leadsom confirmed they will stand not seek re-election, taking the number of Conservative MPs quitting the Commons to a historic high.

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