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Jamaica’s Consumer Confidence Index reached 174.7 points in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking its highest level since 2019 and indicating an 8.5 per cent increase from the previous quarter.
This surge suggests that consumers are sensing a return to pre-pandemic conditions, with expectations of significant changes in business and job conditions over the next 12 months, according to Don Anderson, CEO of Market Research Services.
In contrast, the Business Confidence Index experienced a dip from 144.7 points to 139.1 points between the third and fourth quarters, indicating a -3.9 per cent decline. This change is attributed to declines in firms’ financial standing and profit performance during the same period.
These findings were disclosed during the virtual release of the Jamaica Conference Board’s 4th Quarter 2023 Indices of Business and Consumer Confidence, themed “Bears Vs. Bulls: Preparing for What’s Ahead” on Tuesday.
Despite the diverging trajectories of confidence, businesses and consumers remain steadfast in their concern about crime and violence, considering it a significant impediment to Jamaica’s growth.
The survey revealed that 70 per cent of consumers in the fourth quarter identified crime and violence as the major critical issue, a 12 per cent increase from the previous quarter. Similarly, 55 per cent of businesses shared the same view, marking a 12 per cent increase.
Anderson noted that the figures from the consumer survey represent a 45 per cent improvement in consumer confidence over 24 months.
In highlighting the results of the consumer confidence survey, Anderson disclosed that the results showed that in the fourth quarter of 2023, 18.5 per cent of consumers consider current business conditions as good, which is up from 15.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2023, and 15.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The survey also showed that in the fourth quarter of 2023, 59.7 per cent of consumers said jobs were either plentiful or adequate. This is up from the 53.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 who said jobs were either plentiful or adequate.
Of note, there was an increase in the number of persons who expect the economy to improve in the next year, compared to the previous quarter, with 27.2 per cent of those interviewed in the fourth quarter expecting the economy to be better in 12 months, compared to 20.6 per cent in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, 33.1 per cent of persons interviewed believe conditions in the economy will worsen in the next 12 months, compared to 49 per cent interviewed in the third quarter of 2023.
Data was gathered from interviews with 600 persons and 100 businesses throughout the island between October and December last year.
As far as businesses were concerned the survey revealed that businesses’ optimism about future finances was down, declining from 180 points in the third quarter to 163 points in the last quarter) and that expectations of future profits declined from 180 points to 166 points over the same period.
Firms attributed the lack of access to affordable capital, high input costs and the shortage of qualified labour as barriers to their expansion.
The Indices of Business & Consumer Confidence were developed in 2001 by the Jamaica Conference Board, an arm of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce.
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