Two Ways Nuclear War Could Start, According to Chinese Scholar

Leading Chinese scholar Huang Renwei predicted two ways nuclear war could begin in an interview that was published Friday by Russian state-run media.

Concerns about the potential for nuclear war have grown amid several global conflicts in recent months. Wars between Israel and Hamas, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific sparked fears that nuclear weapons could eventually be used in combat, though world leaders have worked to prevent nuclear escalation, as it would have devastating consequences for the entire globe.

Huang, an influential scholar of foreign affairs in China, spoke with Kremlin-aligned news agency Tass about the potential for nuclear war and said there are only two scenarios that would lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

“If a war starts between NATO and Russia or a war between Iran and the US, it could escalate into a nuclear war or a world war,” he said.

Newsweek reached out to NATO, the White House, as well as the Russian and Iranian foreign ministries for comment via email.

Russian soldiers show off nuclear weapons in Moscow’s Red Square on March 6, 2018. Leading Chinese scholar Huang Renwei predicted two ways nuclear war could begin in an interview that was published Friday by Russian state-run media.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

The Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars are less likely to lead to the use of nuclear weapons because they are more contained within regional boundaries, Huang said. Furthermore, he said simmering tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan are less likely to cause nuclear war because he believes China “can’t be so reckless as to go to war with Taiwan.”

“The conflict in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas look very dangerous, but they are actually controlled within certain limits. They are not going to become a war between NATO and Russia or a war between Iran and the United States,” Huang said.

The Russia-Ukraine war, launched in February 2022 when Moscow invaded its Eastern European neighbor, has particularly seen nuclear concerns grow due to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s allies’ rhetoric surrounding nuclear weapons. Russian state-television host Vladimir Solovyov, an ally to the Russian leader, said during a recent debate that he believes nuclear was is “unavoidable.”

Nikolai Patrushev, another Putin ally, said earlier in November the West’s “destructive” policies increase the likelihood that nuclear weapons could be used, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, Russia’s State Duma voted unanimously last month to pull out of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, leading to questions about whether Putin’s military would resume testing nuclear weapons.

The Israel-Hamas war has also sparked concerns about the use of nuclear weapons. One Israeli lawmaker has called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use “doomsday” nuclear weapons in response to Hamas’ deadly October 7 attack, writing in a post to X last month, “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”