U.S. Refiners Q2 Results Expected to Dull on Dampening Demand

By Alex Kimani – Jul 24, 2024, 5:00 PM CDT

U.S. refiners are set to report a significant downturn in Q2 2024 earnings from a year ago.
Refining cracks weakened through the second quarter.
Exxon, Shell and BP have all issued warnings about softening margins, which, in turn, will make it more challenging to finance buybacks and dividends.

U.S. oil refiners are expected to report a significant downturn in Q2 2024 earnings from a year ago, largely thanks to a tepid summer driving season that has taken a bite out of margins for refiners, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Markets had been banking on an uptick in processing capacity for the second-quarter after fuel demand rose; however, that was counterbalanced by new refineries coming on line in the Middle East, more China exports and steadily increasing diesel stockpiles, analysts told Reuters.

“Refining cracks weakened through the second quarter. It caught investors off guard,” Reuters cited TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman as saying. 3-2-1 crack spread averaged $24/bbl in June, down from $31/bbl in March, but in-line with the average for the 10 years before the pandemic.

Q2 earnings are expected to decline across the board. Exxon, Shell and BP have all issued warnings about softening margins, which, in turn, will make it more challenging to finance buybacks and dividends. According to Bloomberg, Big Oil is now starting to push pause on low-carbon projects and taking on increased levels of debt to fund buybacks and new oil and gas output.

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), the largest U.S. refiner by volume, is expected to report Q2 EPS of $3.22 compared with $5.32 a year ago, according to LSEG estimates cited by Reuters. Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO), the second-largest by capacity, is set to report EPS of $2.60 per share, down from $5.40 a year ago. A similar situation is in store for Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), which is set to report earnings of $1.98 per share, compared with $3.87 a year ago.

The full-year outlook is not much better, and with the end of the summer driving season, refining margins are set to further slump.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com