February 2, 2024 9:20 pm ET
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 235.
UFC Fight Night 235 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Last event’s results: 1-4
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 4-5
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Gilbert Urbina (-200) vs. Charles Radtke (+168)
Kicking off the main card on ESPN+ is a welterweight matchup between Gilbert Urbina and Charles Radtke.
I’m not sure why this fight is on the main card, but it should be entertaining for as long as it lasts.
Radtke showed off new wrinkles to his game in his last outing, but I’m not sure that the former lightweight will be able to impose his strength against a former middleweight like Urbina.
Add in Urbina’s improved front teeps from range, and I’ll side with the Mexican-American to edge out the scorecards of a competitive fight.
Aliaskhab Khizriev (-158) vs. Makhmud Muradov (+128)
Filling out the main card is a middleweight matchup between Aliaskhab Khizriev and Makhmud Muradov.
Even though Khizriev is arguably fighting in the wrong division, I suspect that the styles match and fighting terrain favors him more than it does Muradov.
Muradov may have better movement and more proven stamina, but the smaller cage of the UFC Apex will likely limit the Uzbek’s footwork and encourage grappling scenarios.
For that reason, I’ll side with Khizriev to get his game going in the small octagon by securing a submission in round 2.
Viviane Araujo (+270) vs. Natalia Silva (-355)
In a fight that should be more competitive than the odds let on, Viviane Araujo looks to halt the momentum of Natalia Silva.
Although I don’t disagree with Silva being the designated favorite, I warn anyone who is completely discounting Araujo in this spot.
Araujo has been far from consistent since stepping onto the UFC scene, but she’ll arguably be the best athlete Silva has faced to date.
It’s tempting to take a stab at Araujo at the price listed above, but I’ll stick with my pick of Silva by decision since I see speed playing the biggest differentiator.
Randy Brown (-290) vs. Muslim Salikhov(+225)
Serving as an interesting offering at welterweight is a battle between Randy Brown and Muslim Salikhov.
Despite Brown’s propensity to sometimes play with his food, I don’t disagree with “Rude Boy” being the designated favorite in this spot.
Aside from the obvious on-paper advantages, Salikhov has been looking more sluggish in this advanced stage of his career, showing difficulty keeping pace in torrid affairs.
Add in Brown’s recent grappling improvements under the care of Marquez MMA (home to fighters like Sean Brady and Joe Pyfer), and I suspect that the Jamaican-American can find a submission before the final bell.
Drew Dober (+152) vs. Renato Moicano (-188)
The co-main event for UFC Fight Night 235 features potential fireworks at lightweight between Drew Dober and Renato Moicano.
Despite both fighters being deceptively well-rounded, this ultimately feels like a fight that can go one of two ways: either Dober scores an early and emphatic knockout or Moicano can get to his grappling game and secure a submission.
Although a Dober win wouldn’t surprise me, I’ll pick Moicano to survive the early storm in order to snatch up a submission in round 2.
Roman Dolidze (+138) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (-170)
The main event in the Apex features a middleweight matchup between Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I’m not surprised to see Imavov installed as the favorite in this spot.
Not only is Imavov the more process-based fighter, but the native of France also has a superior range game to his Georgian counterpart. That said, Dolidze is the much more dangerous fighter, which has me leaning in his direction.
Aside from having more ways to win on paper, Dolidze is the superior submission grappler between the two. Couple that with the fact that this fight will be taking place in the small cage, and I can’t help but take a flier on the underdog to come up large with a submission win in rounds 2 or 3.
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