It’s more than a month since Wales’ 20mph default law came into force. Last week we published two stories – one showing that drivers’ speeds, albeit in a limited sample, were going up and also that opposition was growing.
So we asked for an update from the minister whose brief the law falls under. But her response hasn’t left us any clearer about how the scheme is going.
When pollsters Redfield and Wilton conducted a poll before the 20mph law came into force they found 34% opposition and 46% support. A second poll, conducted since the law came into force, showed that 59% oppose and 29% support the Welsh Government’s decision.
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A week ago we asked the Welsh Government for an update about how the law was going and for any insight into Welsh Government polling or details they had about compliance. We also sent details from Agilysis who had studied a much smaller sample than their initial report but told us initally-dropped speeds had risen in the weeks since the policy was introduced. In its initial report the transport and public health data analysts showed on average vehicles driving on Wales’ new 20mph routes reduced their speed by 2.9mph. That had taken in data from 261 miles of road across Wales. You can read that here.
On Tuesday climate change minister Julie James took the weekly Welsh Government press conference. The 20mph law falls under her brief but her deputy Lee Waters has taken the lead on the policy.
Asked if she could give an update about how the rollout was going she said: “We’ll be looking at how the policy is rolling out across Wales. We’ve already looked at how it’s been implemented in different areas. I can tell you I have a meeting with the WLGA [Welsh Local Government Association] this afternoon alongside Lee Waters, who’s the minister with primary responsibility for the policy, to discuss the rollout across Wales. And obviously we’ll be keeping it under review as it rolls out. It’s very early days yet.”
We then put the most recent Redfield and Wilton polling to her and asked whether she was concerned opposition was going up rather than down. Her deputy had told us: “Well it’s deeply unpopular now it’s been brought in. Our expectation is as people get used to it it’ll become more popular.”
Ms James responded: “There’s a standard curve for introduction of safety measures which this is still tracking. We take the opposition very seriously. People are very concerned about the changes to their way of life but so far, I have to say from my own experience, it makes little difference. So I drove all the way to north Wales last Thursday and all the way back again on Friday. The thing that caused the most disruption to my journey was flooding and climate change – 20 miles an hour made absolutely no difference to the amount of time it took me to either get there or get back. People will get used to it and we’ll have to adapt accordingly.”
Asked to clarify if she said the polling was indeed tracking as expected she told us: “It is tracking along the Goodwin curve as I understand it but I don’t have primary responsibility for this and I don’t have those statistics with me at the moment.” For the latest politics news in Wales sign up to our newsletter here.
The Goodwin curve we believe she references is from academic Phil Goodwin who was looking at road pricing. He found there is little or no public support for road pricing at the beginning but support increases with the recognition of a problem. Sufficient public support leads to the development of detailed plans and schemes.
This generally results in a fall-off of public support but support builds up again once the scheme has been implemented and the benefits are recognised. A diagram, based on many separate research projects, is used to illustrate how public reactions develop over time.
You can see that here:
However it doesn’t seem to tally with the polling we presented her with. Ms James’ response said that the fall in support was predicted however Prof Goodwin’s chart actually shows that once the policy has been implemented support should start going up.
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