What the Islanders skeptics are saying this time — and what could prove them wrong

This has never happened before, so it comes as a bit of a surprise. But there are some national analysts who are skeptical about the Islanders.

Entering Wednesday’s game against the Penguins, the Islanders’ 41 points were good for second in the Metropolitan Division, third in the Eastern Conference and ninth in the NHL. And yet, national voices seem to agree the Islanders are outside the top 10 teams in the league.

The NHL.com Super 16 pre-Christmas ranking had the Isles 12th. So did ESPN. Bleacher Report had them up at No. 11, but The Athletic had them down at No. 13.

The question here is: Do they have a point?

Or, more eloquently put: Is there good reason for a dose of healthy skepticism about the Islanders’ place in the standings?

Let’s dive in:

The skeptics’ case

The analytics aren’t particularly kind to the Islanders, but before we get there, let’s start with the oldest-school stat that exists: their record.

After Wednesday, the Isles still have lost more games than they have won, with a 16-9-9 record. That is well above NHL .500, but that is only because the NHL is the only league that counts some losses differently from others.

Anders Lee and the Islanders are above “NHL .500,” but not actual .500. Getty Images

That is great for the Islanders in the standings, but it shouldn’t fool us into thinking they are actually that good of a team.

Particularly because their underlying numbers are not all that great.

The Islanders have been one of the luckiest teams in the league by a few different measures. They were seventh in PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage), which generally normalizes, per Natural Stat Trick. Their actual goal differential also was 13 goals better than expected, better than all but three teams, per Hockey Reference.

At five-on-five, the Islanders were generating just 49.06 percent of high-danger chances and 46.37 percent of scoring chances, the latter ranking 28th in the league, per Natural Stat Trick. They were at just 46.93 percent in overall shot share.

All those numbers, by the way, are from before Wednesday’s 7-0 disaster at the hands of the Penguins — a loss that put on display just how significant the Islanders’ defensive flaws are. They have stayed afloat despite a lot of injuries on the back end, but the ship started to sink against Pittsburgh.

The combination of luck, loser points and playing in the weak division and conference has propped up the Islanders. But that can’t last forever.

This team is not winning games as it did a few years ago, by shutting things down. They are trying to outscore teams.

With Mat Barzal leading the offense, the Islanders are playing a less buttoned-up game this season. AP

That won’t work as the season gets deeper and space is at a premium on the ice. It certainly won’t work in the playoffs. The Islanders themselves proved the way to win in the postseason is by playing physical, defensive hockey just a few years ago.

If the Devils and Hurricanes can figure out bad goaltending situations, though, even getting that far might be tough for the Islanders if their luck runs out.

The optimist’s case

Forget the analytics. The Islanders never have been favored by the advanced stats, and it’s no issue that they aren’t now.

Ultimately, this is a team that has picked up points in 17 of its past 20 games. That’s genuinely impressive, even if six of them came via overtime losses and even after a complete mess of a game at home on Wednesday.

Yes, the Islanders are taking advantage of the system, but they have also been a winning hockey team since mid-November, when they broke a seven-game losing skid that seemed to put the season on the brink.

Since beating the Flames on Nov. 18, they are 11-3-4. That is well over .500 by any measure.

As for stats that declare luck without accounting for things like good goaltending, well, that seems like a flawed methodology.

Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin is likely to emerge from a slight recent slump. NHLI via Getty Images

The Islanders built their team around Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, and even when Sorokin has performed slightly below expected, their tandem had combined for a .916 save percentage going into Wednesday. That’s not luck. It’s a plan coming to fruition.

Moreover, the Islanders are doing this with half of their blue line on injured reserve. The defense has been leaky, the worst example coming Wednesday night, but Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield returning will feel like trade deadline acquisitions — and no one can say for sure how good this team is until it gets an extended run with a healthy blue line.

The possible return of Zach Parise should boost the offense as well.

As for the goalscoring? That’s another plan being realized, by the way.

The Islanders’ power play is bouncing back after an awful 2022-23. Noah Dobson has turned into a legit superstar and pairing Mat Barzal with Bo Horvat — a combination that got just seven healthy games together after the deal for Horvat last season — has yielded a point-per-game output from both. And Brock Nelson is on pace to make another run at 40 goals, not that any national analyst has realized it.

The Islanders aren’t due to regress. In fact, they’re a team that still has room before it reaches its ceiling.

Where do we really come down?

Honestly, it’s hard to say.

Noah Dobson’s play is one reason the Islanders may be able to sustain their place in the standings. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

The skeptics have some good points. It is difficult to take the Islanders seriously as a contender when they’ve lost more often than they’ve won. And if they can’t put games away or play the sort of physical, defensive hockey often associated with their identity, it’s going to be very challenging for this team to get anywhere in the playoffs.

Their flaws were completely exposed Wednesday, and though the Islanders have retained many of the same players who got them to two conference finals, they do not play the same brand of hockey. That might help them in the occasional regular-season game, but you’re not going to get very far when giving up four or more goals with regularity.

That said, the goalscoring does seem sustainable. Their stars are genuinely underrated, the team has played winning hockey since mid-November and they are doing it without three of their everyday defensemen.

And there is zero reason to think the goaltending won’t keep on keeping on. That has been a constant with this team for years. Sorokin’s slight downturn is one of the things I would bet on being fixed.

Given the state of the Metropolitan Division right now, the Islanders are in a great position to make the playoffs even if there is a little bit of downward turn. And if they do, you certainly would like their chances against, say, the Hurricanes a lot better than a year ago, when that always felt like a step too far.

Are they a Cup contender? Probably not. There’s still a sizable gap between the Islanders and the Rangers, Bruins and Golden Knights, to name a few teams who probably can’t consider the season a success unless it ends with a parade.

But could they surprise some people this spring? If things keep going like this, it’s certainly in play.

Five hits from Islanders-Penguins

The Islanders react after giving up another goal in Wednesday night’s 7-0 loss to the Penguins. Getty Images

1️⃣ The worrying thing is less the game — bad games happen — than the feeling that the Islanders had been building to this. Outside of a 3-1 win over Edmonton, they haven’t played particularly great hockey for the past handful of games, and some bad habits have started to creep in.

2️⃣ That said, the game is pretty worrisome. There was pretty much nothing even remotely positive. That the Islanders dramatically fell apart right after Lane Lambert called timeout reflects poorly on everyone involved.

3️⃣ This was the 12th time this season Sorokin has given up four or more goals in a game. He did so 14 times all of last season.

4️⃣ The defense in front of Sorokin has been worse — significantly so — and he does not deserve much blame for what happened on Wednesday. It is wrong to say he is the problem. But he has not been the solution in anywhere near the same fashion he was on nights when the defense didn’t have it last season.

5️⃣ The schedule is about to get very tricky with eight of the next 11 games on the road, mostly against Western Conference teams. We’re going to learn very quickly whether this was a one-off disaster or indicative of big-picture issues.

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