What's In Store for Markets in the Second Half of 2024?

Via Metal Miner

Overall, June 2024 financial market conditions showcased significant market stabilization for the global economy. The World Bank’s projection of a 2.6% growth rate for the year signals the first steady market expansion and stabilization period in over three years. This comes despite various uncertainties and adjustments in the market following COVID-19 pandemic disruptions.

Market indices such as the NASDAQ Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index experienced substantial positive gains in June. Meanwhile, precious metal prices remained resilient, trading above their March highs despite coming off their peak earlier in Q2. Conversely, non-ferrous base metals faced bearish headwinds. As the month continued on, prices for base metals like copper and lead trended downward, with both lower lows and highs. All in all, increasing uncertainty and speculation will keep volatility high despite ongoing market expansion.

S&P, NASDAQ Demonstrate Market Expansion

A series of solid economic indicators drove June’s stock market performance gains. The U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience, fueled by strong consumer spending, which prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious approach. With the Fed holding interest rates steady and pushing any potential cuts to later this year, experts anticipate that the U.S. GDP will grow at approximately 2.3%.

Consequently, the NASDAQ Composite Index saw significant gains, increasing by just over 4.7% for the month. Investor confidence in tech stocks and high buyer volume also helped to push prices upward. Similarly, the S&P 500 Index recorded a growth of just over 2.5% for the month. Meanwhile, positive earnings reports and sustained consumer spending boosted the index’s performance amid global uncertainties in other assets.

Unlike other markets, gold and silver prices saw modest declines from their peak last month. As prices continue to retreat from their all-time highs, investors and market participants face headwinds due to ongoing uncertainty. Despite the decline, prices remained stable above their March 2024 highs. This indicates robust industrial demand, particularly from the electronics and renewable energy sectors. Base metals like copper and lead also faced bearish headwinds, with pressure driving prices into uncertainty.

However, solid demand from the construction and energy sectors kept prices relatively stable, even as Chinese demand continues to signal potential market weakness.

What’s In Store For the Rest of 2024?

Treasury yields futures experienced bearish pressure as prices fell from their May peak. Like precious metals, price action formed lower highs and failed to sustain even modest earlier gains. Meanwhile, ongoing economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary stance continued to pressure the 10-year yield rate.

Shorter-term yields also saw significant volatility, with the 2-year Treasury yield closing the month at nearly 4.67%. This performance remains closely tied to Fed policy changes and economic data releases. Longer-term yields, like the 30-year Treasury, closed at 4.34% for the month, indicating potential future economic conditions, including a cooling inflation trend and possible monetary policy shifts.

Overall, markets will likely remain optimistic and stable, supported by significant job gains and low unemployment. Although inflation appears to have eased, elevated levels will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and keep rates steady. Meanwhile, stable interest rates, declining inflation, and sustained consumer spending should support continued investment. On the other hand, global conflict and uncertainties could create headwinds and volatility across financial markets.

Projections for the remainder of the year suggest a cautious approach, with a potential rate change if economic data remains strong and inflation continues to decline.

By Jimmy Chiguil