If Tesla achieves fully operational FSD with robotaxi capability (before robotaxi regulatory approval) will be like dragons in Game of Thrones. Other carmakers will have no choice but to license it. This will be one of several huge catalysts for Tesla valuation (not financial advice.)
Here are the developments that should positively impact Tesla valuation.
NOTE: On Tuesday, April 2, 2024, Tesla will likely reveal weak first quarter production numbers. There was the eco terrorist fire at the Berlin gigafactory, chinese new year and generally soft demand.
1. FSD off beta [April earnings 75-90% revenue recognition]
2. FSD free trial positive April & signups May
3. FSD 12.4 April
4. FSD 12.5 May
5. Energy Add 1+ GWh Megapack each quarter
6. Change quarter-end volume note adds energy and FSD (April 2? July 2? Oct 2? Jan 2)
7. Change earnings to call out energy and FSD as material. Provide consistent guidance. Force analyst recognition
8. First OEM license FSD/software [April-Aug?]
9. FSD Feature Complete
10. FSD 12.5+ quality/comfort drives major adoption increase
11. FSD drives more car sales
12. FSD rapid learning for quality FSD in China, Asia, Europe
13. FSD starts many local regulatory processes
14. Unsupervised FSD in Boring Tunnel
15. 4680 ramped past 15 gwh per quarter
16. 4680 ramped past 25 gwh per quarter.
17. 4680 ramped past 50 gwh per quarter
18. China megapack factory completed and delivering. Expect sooner than expect because construction is surprisingly fast in China
The biggest possible near-term catalyst would be a series of OEM licenses for FSD. Like the charging station agreements.
Successful FSD with significantly more signups will also break the only a car company narrative. At some point, recategorizing Tesla as a software/AI company will be a huge PE multiple shift.
Auto makers have PE of 10-20 but software applications can have 50+ PE, and with good growth even more.
As of March 28, 2024, (AMZN) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 61. This is based on a share price of $180.14 and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90 for the trailing 12 months (TTM) ending in December 2023. AMZN PEG (Price Earnings Growth) ratio was 3.44. This was based on its 5-year EBITDA growth rate of 18.60%.
$TSLA Tesla Milestones and Catalysts: Mainly FSD and Energy related in 2024 & 2025
1. FSD off beta [April earnings 75-90% revenue recognition]
2. FSD free trial positive April & signups May
3. FSD 12.4 April
4. FSD 12.5 May
5. Energy Add 1+ GWh Megapack each quarter
6. Change…
— nextbigfuture (@nextbigfuture) March 30, 2024
Tesla changing the name from FSD beta 12.X to FSD 12.X supervised makes the eventual easy name change to FSD X.X unsupervised for true robotaxi. Based on regulatory approvals in different places.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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