Can Nikki Haley exploit Trump vulnerability in suburbs?

With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis largely skipping New Hampshire to focus on later primaries, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley now has a kernel of truth for her assertion that “it’s a two-person race” for the Republican presidential nomination – at least in the Granite State.

Polls show her running second here in New Hampshire, on average 13 percentage points behind former President Donald Trump. The battleground demographic is suburban voters – particularly those in the well-populated southeastern region.

Why We Wrote This

Suburban voters often play a pivotal role in U.S. elections. They were key to Joe Biden’s presidential win in 2020. Nikki Haley hopes they’ll propel her to a surprise win in New Hampshire’s Republican primary.

“If she has a chance, it is in the suburban part of the state – especially in the more upper-class, more highly educated towns,” says Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

A Politico analysis of the Iowa caucuses earlier this week showed that Mr. Trump may be vulnerable among suburbanites. If he becomes the nominee and that pattern plays out nationally, the implications for the general election could be huge.

Ms. Haley’s pitch here is about electability. Her messages resonate with Darcy Tuoti, a retiree in the town of Hooksett. Ms. Tuoti says Ms. Haley “just seems like the person who can hopefully unite the country most.”

Here in suburban Pembroke, New Hampshire, all eight flyers that arrived at the home of some registered Republicans this week focused on former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley: four in support, four against.

And with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis largely skipping New Hampshire to focus on later primaries, Ms. Haley’s assertion that “it’s a two-person race” for the GOP presidential nomination now has a kernel of truth, at least here in the Granite State. Her third-place finish in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, just behind Governor DeSantis and well behind former President Donald Trump, was enough to keep going.

This has been the Haley game plan all along: Make it through Iowa, then go for broke in New Hampshire. Polls show her running second here, on average 13 percentage points behind Mr. Trump. The battleground demographic is suburban voters – particularly those in the southeastern region, two-thirds of the state’s population.

Why We Wrote This

Suburban voters proved pivotal in Joe Biden’s 2020 victory over Mr. Trump. And a Politico analysis of precinct-level results and entrance polls from the Iowa caucuses showed that Mr. Trump may be vulnerable among those same voters in the current cycle. If that plays out nationally, the implications for the general election could be huge if Mr. Trump is the GOP nominee.

Ms. Haley’s pitch here needs to emphasize electability, political analysts say. In a quick appearance Thursday at the iconic Robie’s Country Store in Hooksett, she did just that.

In general election polls, “Trump is tied with [President Joe] Biden, and on a good day, he might be up by two,” Ms. Haley says in a brief version of her stump speech, referring to a Wall Street Journal survey last month. “We beat Biden by 17 points!”

On average, a Haley-Biden general election polls currently as a dead heat, similar to Trump-Biden matchups.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley greets 6-month-old Josephine and her mother, Jessica Robie, during a campaign stop at Robie’s Country Store ahead of the New Hampshire primary election, in Hooksett, New Hampshire, Jan. 18, 2024.

Haley’s appeal with suburban voters

Robie’s may not seem the epitome of suburbia. Nestled along railroad tracks and the Merrimack River in the southeastern New Hampshire town of Hooksett, this family-run small business oozes rural charm.

But Hooksett is within commuting distance of Boston – and in the Boston media market, which qualifies it as a suburb. Jan Dodge, a retiree who came in to get lunch and see Ms. Haley, worked for a private equity firm in Boston for over 25 years while living in Hooksett.

What does she think of Ms. Haley?

“I like that she has a foreign policy knowledge and would support Ukraine, whereas Trump would just hand it over,” Ms. Dodge says, alluding to Ms. Haley’s two years as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump.

The space at Robie’s is small and packed – reporters and cameras may well outnumber voters – and many of the voters here are retired. Darcy Tuoti worked in public health, and her husband, Frank, was a machinist. They’re both registered Republicans and voted for Mr. Trump in the past. But Ms. Tuoti says she considers herself an independent – and will probably vote for Ms. Haley on Tuesday.

“She just seems like the person who can hopefully unite the country most,” Ms. Tuoti says.

On Friday, news broke that GOP Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a former nomination rival, would endorse Mr. Trump. This has heightened speculation that Mr. Trump might put Senator Scott, who is Black, on the ticket. Given the ex-president’s running controversies around race – including false suggestions that Ms. Haley isn’t eligible to run because of her Indian heritage (she is U.S.-born) – having a Black running mate could help Mr. Trump’s image.

One battleground: “undeclared” voters

Earlier this week, Ms. Haley held a rally in the historic hotel at Bretton Woods, in the shadow of Mount Washington. This was well north of the state’s Boston commuter region, but there was still a suburban vibe to the crowd of about 150 people who had braved a snowstorm to attend: well-dressed and polite.

In fact, most U.S. households describe themselves as “suburban,” and so going for those votes can be a squishy proposition.

Being suburban “is a state of mind more than anything else,” says Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.

In interviews, attendees at the Bretton Woods event echoed those of the Robie’s crowd. Some Republicans and “undeclared” voters who previously supported Mr. Trump said they were ready for someone without the baggage. Some were disaffected Biden voters, like Michelle Overhoff, assistant principal at Groveton High School in northern New Hampshire.

Ms. Overhoff said she is unhappy with what she calls “lagging education reform” and the loss of COVID funding in an area she calls “socioeconomically challenged.”

“With Trump, the economy was good,” says Ms. Overhoff, a self-described independent. “But as an educator, I value integrity and acceptance of all. And civility.”

She said she’s leaning toward Ms. Haley in the primary – a vote she can make as an “undeclared” voter.

But not everyone at Bretton Woods was impressed by Ms. Haley – especially when she didn’t take questions from the audience.

“She didn’t rock my world,” says David Magnone, a ski resort contractor from nearby Whitefield.

Ms. Haley’s support for foreign wars didn’t persuade his companion, Melissa Boyd: “Our battles are not overseas,” she said. “They’re from within.”

Ultimately, Ms. Haley faces a steep climb in trying to overtake Mr. Trump on Tuesday, says Dr. Smith, the University of New Hampshire pollster. About 40% of New Hampshire Republicans are solidly for the former president, and Ms. Haley can’t just rely on suburban voters to do the job, he says.

“She has to not only get them to come out, she has to expand from that,” Dr. Smith says. “That’s the harder challenge for her. How do you get people who don’t really dislike Trump to vote for you?”

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