Eventually, all that will matter to Tesla and others is changing civilization with Teslabot.
All that will matter is the race to improve and use AGI and humanoid bot. This will be the driving purpose and generator of value for civilization and human economy.
In chess – A forced move is one that a player must make to respond to a threat posed by an opponent. If a player’s king is in check, for instance, that player must make a move that gets their king out of check.
* Useful humanoid bots is easier than many believe
Evidence: Three Stanford students making useful robots using off the shelf hardware and part time work
Evidence: 50 repetitions of a task using co-training teleoperation to reach 95% success rate
Evidence: Rapid success with many competitors: Figure AI, Toyota Research etc…
* Value of human level or above human level humanoid bot is basically some multiple of current human labor===$100+ Trillion per year
Humanoid bot is 100X the value of robotaxi or robotruck
Companies have already spent $100+ billion trying to get robotaxi. Dozens of companies and many losing $2-3 billion per year for multiple years.
How can Tesla improve and speedup the Dojo AI training?
How can the AI make Teslabots more useful?
Critical milestones
* make Teslabot useful and valuable for some jobs or tasks in Tesla Gigafactories
* Have 5000 Teslabots and 20,000 factory workers do the work and match the production of 25,000 factory workers
* Move the 5,000 workers from each of 4 factories (Shanghai, Fremont, Berlin, Austin) to open another factory or enable three shifts to become four shifts at the same factory
* Have 10,000 or 20,000 Teslabots replace half of the human workers in a factory and increase production versus an all human factory
* Double overall Tesla production using Teslabots with human workers
* Increase the growth rate of Tesla production and speed the opening of new shifts, new factories while increasing margin
In 2024, Elon and Tesla must take the push for Teslabot and Dojo to world class levels. There is a 2025 Kuwait project to use 1 gigawatt of power for 700,000 Nvidia B-100 chips. Each B-100 will be about 5-10 times as powerful as the current Nvidia H-100. It costs $30,000 to $40,000 for one H-100. If a B-100 costs $50,000 each if ordered at the end of this year, then 700,000 B-100 would cost $35 billion.
NOTE – Nvidia 2023 revenue is about $27 billion.
The $35 billion is just the raw cost of chips. The full project energy, staff, facility and the chips could easily be $100 billion.
Tesla and Elon may only be spending $2-4 billion on the Dojo, FSD and Teslabot effort even with the 100 Exaflop AI training system.
Elon said AI compute resources and systems are increasing at 10 times every 6 months which is 100 times every 12 months.
In 2026-2027, China could be at a trillion for compute and diverting 20% of all national electricity for improving and training AI.
Gartner – Worldwide end-user spending on public cloud services is forecast to grow 20.4% to total $678.8 billion in 2024, up from $563.6 billion in 2025.
The spending on compute and energy and supply chain will lead the return in profits. It is critical to get the profit and revenue generation to start funding the flywheel of AI and humanoid bot progress.
Elon and Tesla solved the FSD profitability flywheel while Waymo, Cruise and others make 0.1% of the money back in revenue.
Elon and Tesla can get trillion(s) in value by using Teslabot to boost the productivity and efficiency of car and megapack production.
The 2026-2027 beast of AI and humanoid bot race will need Tesla to devote all of its megapack, solar, Dojo capabilities to be competitive and match China at a trillion in compute and 100+ gigawatts of power.
IF it is clear that the competition is going to 2025 (Kuwait project) and 2026-2027 (National China project) scale then what is inevitable for Tesla in 2024 with new Teslabot factories, and actuator factories and Dojo buildout?
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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